WI: German reunification despite opposition of UK, France, US, USSR

As far as the foreign troop problem goes...

"I'm so sorry, but new construction on the roads leading to your military base means that we're going to be unable to guarantee supply deliveries such as food, fuel, or new stocks of ammunition for the foreseeable future. And naturally, new environmental regulations ban the operation of Helicopters in this region, due to it being the habit of the endangered Red Wild Beak... Naturally if you wish to withdraw your troop garrisons in the face of your untenable supply issues, my government will make every effort to cooperate."
 

nbcman

Donor
As far as the foreign troop problem goes...

"I'm so sorry, but new construction on the roads leading to your military base means that we're going to be unable to guarantee supply deliveries such as food, fuel, or new stocks of ammunition for the foreseeable future. And naturally, new environmental regulations ban the operation of Helicopters in this region, due to it being the habit of the endangered Red Wild Beak... Naturally if you wish to withdraw your troop garrisons in the face of your untenable supply issues, my government will make every effort to cooperate."
Maybe so-but most military bases that I saw in Germany in 1991 weren't that remote such that they could make such an excuse. Maybe they could 'quarantine' the US forces against the Mad Cow Disease outbreak which was starting about this time.

But if the German Government would take a hard line with their supposed NATO allies, I could see discussions to amend the Treaty of Brussels back to the original text in the face of Germany's unilateral decision:

At the request of any of the High Contracting Parties, the Council shall be immediately convened in order to permit the High Contracting Parties to consult with regard to any situation which may constitute a threat to peace, in whatever area this threat should arise; with regard to the attitude to be adopted and the steps to be taken in case of a renewal by Germany of an aggressive policy; or with regard to any situation constituting a danger to economic stability.

So there could be a non-German NATO and a non-aligned Germany with a fragmenting Warsaw Pact / SU.
 
When the fuck did the USSR lack the stomach to use military force? They didn't lack in Hungary or in Czechoslovakia or in Afghanistan is the Soviets oppose it then it doesn't go through what will the WG do when Soviet Guards armor divisions close the border and start patrolling the streets of Berlin? Go to war?

To answer your first question...OTL 1988-1989? Hell, they stopped using brute force at the first sign of trouble as early as 1980 in Poland. The question is whether Gorbachev would be scared enough to overturn what by this point was the new standard approach for problem solving in the Eastern Bloc.
 
How many soldiers are USA, UK and France willing to let die to stop German unification? That's the real question here. DDR was upkept by Soviet power, the moment USSR was unable to upkeep that power anymore, the East Germans decided that there was no reason for two Germanies any more, as a reunification would no longer result in a Soviet invasion. So that leave the question whether France, UK and USA are willing to coup Kohl and reoccupy Germany. While this may result in no reunification in 1990, it come at the cost of making a enemy of Germany and the reunification will just happen a few years later, and we will likely see a collapse of EU[1] and it being replaced by EU minus UK and France. Germany will likely be a nuclear power.

Honestly Mitterand is the guy I have the hardest time seeing doing something this stupid. USA could end up with a idiot president in 1989 instead of Bush the Elder somehow (maybe he dies in late 1988), Thatcher is the most likely leader to do something like this, but I have a hard time seeing her go to war to stop German Reunification. This leave a idiot in the White House as the actor behind this.

But honestly I think the scars in American, British and French society will be much deeper than in Germany if they try something stupid like this, in the real world there's no excuse to do thios.

[1]not entirely likely I could the French people going on the street as French soldiers dies in Germany for the stupidest reason ever, and a new 6th Republic being established. In that case I could see the 6th Republic pretty much supporting the next German reunification effort.
 
To answer your first question...OTL 1988-1989? Hell, they stopped using brute force at the first sign of trouble as early as 1980 in Poland. The question is whether Gorbachev would be scared enough to overturn what by this point was the new standard approach for problem solving in the Eastern Bloc.

If there's one thing to rile up Soviet public its the threat of a unified Germany
 
If there's one thing to rile up Soviet public its the threat of a unified Germany

Apparently not, seeing how they did nothing IOTL too. Unless you assume fear of nuclear war was the only thing preventing them from intervening to save the Berlin Wall, despite the contradictory evidence that was the entire 1980's across the Eastern Bloc, then there's no reason to expect a different response.
 
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