WI German navy destroys British navy in Jutland.

everything I have read makes it pretty clear to me that the only thing that saved the German Navy from destruction at Jutland was nightfall and poor visibility in the last part of the day

Sure, the Germans destroyed 3 armored cruisers and 3 battle cruisers, but damage to the main fleet is relatively minor, and while several of Beatty's ships needed extensive repair, the important and telling point is that the British Navy could easily have fought a battle the next day, while the German fleet had so many ships damaged that it could not. The main action only really lasted about 2 hours, with the battlecruiser action taking a little over an additional hour

If the two fleets had run into each other a couple of hours earlier my guess is that the Germans likely would have lost several more heavy units and the rest would have been out of service for months to come.. As it was, only 10 of the German Dreadnoughts (out of 18) and none of the 5 battlecruisers were fit for action, while the British had 23 battleships and 4 battlecruisers immediately available.

Nothing short of Calbear's blunt but accurate comment about divine intervention will give the Germans victory in this situation. You can even make the case that divine intervention saved the Germans from destruction.

as to the armored cruisers, they had no business being in this action as much as the German predreadnoughts. In both cases they were terribly vulnerable to the more advanced classes and merely ended up adding to the casualty count
 
If something can go wrong, it will

World is a fascinating place, and almost nothing seems to be impossible. The whole fleet couldn't have been destroyed without ASB, but with Yi Sun-Shin-level luck, Germans could take out, say, 7 British battleships and 6 battlecruisers, and then get Lützow back home safely. There have been more mismatched forces winning battles with steel balls, luck, skill, and some more luck. If I would make a post "WI: Benedict Arnold manages to prevent the British invasion in October 1776 with buying enough time with his fishing boats?" in an alternate universe, most would be screaming "ASB bullshit". But it did happen. With two of the QE battleships blowing up, and maybe Lion too, and Jellicoe forming his line to west instead of east, then Scheer managing to cross his T twice instead of other way around, and then in the night German flotilla sneaking up to British battleships, you have a victory that will have its own page in history books of schoolboys 100 years into future. Things that should not happen when looking at the facts sometimes do happen. Something having 1% success chance doesn't mean it is impossible, it means that with enough tries it will succeed. This of course requires even more fuckups on British part than in OTL, but it is possible.
 
World is a fascinating place, and almost nothing seems to be impossible. The whole fleet couldn't have been destroyed without ASB, but with Yi Sun-Shin-level luck, Germans could take out, say, 7 British battleships and 6 battlecruisers, and then get Lützow back home safely. There have been more mismatched forces winning battles with steel balls, luck, skill, and some more luck. If I would make a post "WI: Benedict Arnold manages to prevent the British invasion in October 1776 with buying enough time with his fishing boats?" in an alternate universe, most would be screaming "ASB bullshit". But it did happen. With two of the QE battleships blowing up, and maybe Lion too, and Jellicoe forming his line to west instead of east, then Scheer managing to cross his T twice instead of other way around, and then in the night German flotilla sneaking up to British battleships, you have a victory that will have its own page in history books of schoolboys 100 years into future. Things that should not happen when looking at the facts sometimes do happen. Something having 1% success chance doesn't mean it is impossible, it means that with enough tries it will succeed. This of course requires even more fuckups on British part than in OTL, but it is possible.

Not really sure what you are comparing. You see slowing a military operation is not the hard part...getting one moving is, stopping the wheels falling off without enemy action is, carrying it through in the face of armed opposition really is. Arnold correctly surmised that the British needed control of the waters to supply their troops and thus chose to as much as possible dispute them on water and his ships got creamed but he was as you point out playing for time. Time is the commodity that everyone is short of and as the Starks say "Winter is Coming".

Here the British have time and the Germans are looking to sink ships. Lots of ships...lots of big ships. Lots of big ships that actually proved they were quite tough and resistant to damage. Also they are trying to avoid getting their own ships sunk.

This site has a handy chart of all the ship losses by type and cause in World War 1 it also has handy records of all the major surface ship losses (destroyer and above).

What you are asking for is beyond the simple realms of luck and steel balls and a bit more luck. What you are asking for is a complete change in the entire history of naval warfare with everything known to be true made false and everything known to be false made true but only and this is the bit where people legitimately shout ASB, only if so long as it does not equally impact the HSF in a negative way.

A 1 or 2 extra British battleships extra sunk is plausible...extremely, most extremely unlucky and maybe allowing Lutzow to survive making it really most extraordinarily extremely unlucky for the British but beyond that and you really start to need to bend reality. Yahweh needs to show up on the German side and agree to actually start talking again to his Norse brothers Odin and Thor because he will need their help too level divine intervention and anyone who knows a bit about theology knows that Yahweh does not even like folks talking about the other Gods.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
To make a comparison:


Benedict Arnold slowing down the British fleet is one thing. Benedict Arnold defeating them... is another!
It's not beyond the bounds of reality, it's just near them... Arnold, for example, could have used incendiary weapons which all work perfectly and burn the British fleet to the waterline.
But it's not very likely. Ships of the Line are durable things and their captains are capable of basic pattern recognition!
 
My point was that sometimes, strange stuff happens. Arnold was maybe a bad example, but Yi Sun-Shin wasn't (if you count almost perfect battle location as luck). There are many other examples. First time crossing the T was used with battleships, Russia lost all 11 of its battleships, some sunk, some captured. Well, the Japanese did have larger fleet, but I think that devastating results are not what anyone would expect. It is claimed that in the Middle Ages, Albanian army led by Gregj Skannerbeg caused once 22 000 Turkish casualties while losing only 2 000 themselves, and defended succesfully a castle with 8 000 men against 160 000 Turks. None of this is probable, but it did happen. With extraordinary luck on his side, Scheer could cause major damage on British ships and then save Lützow.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The point is that it would involve such extraordinary luck as to defy comprehension.


Most major victories of the kind you're talking about have some kind of underlying causes - for example... low morale, poorly maintained ships, all that.
The problem is that in OTL several of those factors were present, and mostly weighing the other way.
It's basically asking for lightning to strike exactly the right place several times in a row - you need to have the weaker, less numerous ships escape severe damage while destroying stronger and more numerous ships in job lots... when despite taking dozens of hits OTL the stronger ships in question were no more than inconvenienced. (Warspite.)
 
What'd the Grand Fleet do crash into one another? :confused:

Daft as it might sound, this is perhaps one of the more plausible ways in which to engineer an annihilating HSF victory.

In OTL, Jellicoe had about 2-3 minutes to take the single most important tactical decision of any commander in the entire war, namely how and when to form his battle line.

In reality, he called it right and Scheer found himself cruising towards 24 battleships (which he hadn't previously been aware were even at sea), that had already deployed to train all their heavy guns on him. Unsurprisingly, he thought better of engaging.

Suppose instead that Jellicoe delayed his decision while trying to discern between the confusing and contradictory reports being brought to him. Instead of deploying, he continues to cruise towards the HSF in columns and Scheer then manages to get the first shots in. Jellicoe then delays again, believing the volleys to be from Hipper's retreating battlecruisers. Only when the weight of firepower coming down makes it apparent that it is indeed the HSF does he order a reconfiguration into battle line. However, confusion then abounds. In the smoke and fire, not every ship gets the order and having taken hits, not every ship is able to execute it as they would in clean conditions. The result is that some ships do indeed run into each other (as it was, there were several near misses in OTL), and while the Grand Fleet is sorting itself out, the HSF makes merry and scores dozens of hits on the British BBs. Just to add to the fun, several captains also suffer attacks of periscopitis as they mistake debris in the sea for U-boats.

Now, as has been pointed out, even all that would not result in an annihilating victory. It was hard to sink a capital ship and even with an almighty deployment mess, it would have been sorted out. Still, it's not unfeasible to see the numbers being at least equalled out by that sort of shambles - and if that had happened, Scheer may well not have made the dash back to port that he did.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
Point being though, the HSF could have devastated the RN in the night battle, as JAG88 proved. This is hardly ASB. ASB is only something, which is not possible within the (known) laws of physic. Oh, as the German 30,5 cm/50 SK L/50 could penetrate the belt of the British BB at 10.000 m, this isn't ASB as well. The standard British 13,5"/45 Mk V Mk II A shell had an even lower penetration rate of 31 cm at 10.000 yards (instead of 34,5 cm of the German shell at 10.000 m(=10.940 yards)). And also not mentioned here the poor quality of these shells at the time of Jutland. And as every British 13,5" BB had a belt of maximal 30,5 cm instead of the 35 cm of the German ships, they were inferior of them in a 1:1 fight.

And the data for the British 15"/42 Mk 1 gun are not so magnificent either compared to the German guns. At 9.144 m the shell could penetrate 35,6 mm steel. Thus to become a danger a QE or R class BB had to get that near to a German BB. At the same time they had "only" belts of 33 cm and were still within the range of the German guns. The 38cm/45 SK L/45 of the Bayern class could penetrate 39 cm at 10.000 m and 35 cm at 12.500m. Again the low quality of the British shells are not included.
 
Das Leben und der Krieg sind auch ein Wurfelspiel

There was also several underlying causes harming British in OTL, such as poor communication, which could have gone even worse, poor performance from incompetent leaders cough cough Beatty cough cough, British turrets prone to exploding, British shells prone to exploding outside enemy ships, overall worse shooting than on the Germans, and the failure which was night action at Jutland. Also, British weren't exactly expecting Scheer to be able to evade disaster after his T was crossed. Twice. In OTL, these led to British failure to cause considerable damage on HSF. With some changes, they could together lead into outright disaster.

Also, there were things that were harming the Germans in OTL. Remove a few of those and you can get at least a minor victory, maybe even saving Lützow. Scheer didn't trap Beatty's force when he had the chance, because of lack of information. Sinking the whole BC force would be what Germans came to do, and it could be done without a single sunk German ship, with some luck, though heaviest British ships proved to be quite tough in OTL. And Beatty dying could actually be good for the British on the long run. Germans were going to have 10-14 submarines harming and scouting the Grand Fleet in advance, only two were in place, didn't sink anything, and got wrong information. Germans were also going to have Zeppelins scouting for the enemies, which could lead to Scheer trapping Beatty's force perfectly, and/or Scheer surprising Jellicoe and crossing Jellicoe's T. Though Scheer was not looking for a fight with Jellicoe, it could have still happened under right circumstances.

Even without more information, Scheer could still have surprised Jellicoe, if Jellicoe would have formed his battle line to west rather than east, which could mean fleets spotting each other when neither is prepared, and could lead to Scheer crossing Jellicoe's T once or twice and then trying to escape. This has the risk of British not turning away when their T is crossed, and getting to a fight like Trafalgar or broadside-to-broadside (though I don't think Trafalgar style pushing could have worked with battleships). And OTL proved that Jellicoe doesn't want to take unnecessary risks. Jellicoe had insufficient information on Scheer's position but still managed to make the safer call in OTL. IIRC this would also lead to the sun being in a position that favours German gunnery. In OTL, main fleet action was not decisive because the German fleet was actively evading British, and both did a number of mistakes. Still, Germans had fewer losses. With Jellicoe being the one who is surprised, I can't imagine the loss ratio turning to favour the British, though the losses might be somewhat more heavy for both sides). Especially considering that Scheer managed, with skill and luck, to evade major damage when his T was crossed, which Grand Fleet isn't capable of AFAIK.

Finally, the night action could have been a grim night indeed for the British. British capital ships were in loose formation, but separated from their flotillas. In OTL, German flotillas sent to cause damage and distract were detected, and German main force pushed through British flotillas. IIRC this was also the part where Lützow got critically hit. With German flotillas sneaking up to British ships undetected, they could sink, say, even three battleships. This of course needs luck, but isn't ASB. It is often streched how Germans had superior night training. This would also mean German main force having easier time with pushing through, as part of the British flotillas would be sent looking for the German ones.

Germans were somewhat lucky in OTL. With even half of these mostly plausible changes I listed, Jutland would be a name still cursed in Royal Navy.
 
Point being though, the HSF could have devastated the RN in the night battle, as JAG88 proved..

No he did not, he was reduced to throwing random abuse as his argument collapsed.

But let us look again at the night scenario.

Scheer supposedly has superiority at night. Yet in OTL he is running away...why? The point is the supposed "superior night training" does not seem to have actually existed.

The light forces of both sides have to successfully to achieve four difficult things just to get into the situation where they have the chance to do difficult.

1: they have to successfully detach by flotillas from their main body, the British forces assigned to patrolling the route that the HSF actually took achieved this. The German light forces in the case of the flotilla assigned to the key sector even failed to detach. JAG88 excuses this by making mention of the difficult situation involved in crossing the wake of the larger ships but even at the very beginning we see him making excuses for the Germans

2: The light forces must find their assigned patrol sectors. The British did this, the German V Flotilla failed utterly and another Flotilla was forced to alter course away from its assigned patrol path by the threat of being fired upon by its own heavy ships. JAG88 uses this to claim German brilliance...

3: The light forces must locate the heavy units of the enemy. The British did this the Germans failed.

4: The light units must launch an attack on the enemy. The British did this, they lost four destroyers but sank a destroyer,three light cruisers and a pre-dreadnought battleship. So less than five thousand tons of warships versus over twenty thousand tons of warship and yet JAG88 describes this attack as a failure for the good and valid reason that no dreadnoughts were sunk

So all in all on the night the British score 4 points for basic manoeuvres but non of the 16 points on offer for dreadnought sinkings...4/20

The Germans might get 1 iffy point for manoeuvres and again no points for dreadnoughts 1 point is the lot for them and that is contentious under the circumstances. A passing mark would likely be at least 12/ a possible 30 or so.

As to the idea of the High Seas Fleet battle line beating the GF at night well Scheer did not believe it. Worse but any engagement would have taken place at literally zero elevation point blank range at which both sides could be confident of armour penetration but the British could afford to take more damage than the Germans. Recall Jellicoe was open to this possibility it was Scheer who was not.

As to the other scenario posited of the daylight meeting engagement being reversed not only does this require not one but two PODs with Scheer having to recognise matters first and steer to put his ships ahead of the GF but the reaction of the GF would be very different from the HSF. The GF wanted to fight and are in three columns not one line of battle. They can shake out into line abreast and would then attempt to steer once formed into line abreast along a parallel course to the HSF (turning their formation into line of battle) while the HSF looks to break away.

Again and again within the constraints of signalling, weapons and sensor systems of the day we find everything tipping to a British victory which the Germans did well to avoid.
 
Rodent, as far as I know, Germans had better night training but the main fleet was running away because, well, in a prolonged fight it had little hope against the British, and they had more to lose. And the actions of German flotillas certainly don't make the night training seem too good. I think the reason for British having more success is that the German fleet was going through British flotillas who were in formation, while German flotillas were actively looking for enemies with little information. However, I don't think German flotillas not failing completely is too unrealistic possibility. If they indeed were trained, and with some luck managed to find British heavy ships, they could cause damage. I don't think myself anymore that the main fleets could've done much in the night.
 
Rodent, as far as I know, Germans had better night training but the main fleet was running away because, well, in a prolonged fight it had little hope against the British, and they had more to lose. And the actions of German flotillas certainly don't make the night training seem too good. I think the reason for British having more success is that the German fleet was going through British flotillas who were in formation, while German flotillas were actively looking for enemies with little information. However, I don't think German flotillas not failing completely is too unrealistic possibility. If they indeed were trained, and with some luck managed to find British heavy ships, they could cause damage. I don't think myself anymore that the main fleets could've done much in the night.

The Germans were running away because the alternative was getting beat, that is not cowardice that is doing their duty, a force in being is still a threat and a political bargaining chip, a force at the bottom of the North Sea is a diving attraction.

The claim of superior German night training rests on the fears of Admiral Jellicoe who was the man charged by the British to try and foresee everything. Yet note he positioned his battleships where he expected to find the enemy if they did make a break for it, not the course (literally) of a man afraid of action against a superior enemy. He detached some...not all of the British light forces to his rear to cover the other route with the intention that they should alert him if the enemy took it...again looking for battle. At night.

A very cautious man seeking a fight...

An aggressive man running away....

That sums up the professional opinion of the two commanders who both agreed that if the HSF met the GF at night it would lose.

As to the little information claim if Jellicoe can guess that the HSF will be one of two places why is it that Scheer and his staff cannot? Rather than using his light forces aggressively I would contend that Scheer wanted then out like a man in the dark extends his hands. He knows that they might get jabbed by thorns but that is better than walking face first into those same thorns with no warning.
 
The Germans were running away because the alternative was getting beat, that is not cowardice that is doing their duty, a force in being is still a threat and a political bargaining chip, a force at the bottom of the North Sea is a diving attraction.

Exactly. Germans got lucky to survive the encounter with British both ITTL and in OTL. Scheer had no intention for second day of fighting, or chaotic night battle. He had more to lose. As for your other comments about German night fighting, both sides knew night action is chaos. German flotillas were meant to be acting as scouts, as decoy, and if they get the chance, as a surprise attack. IIRC they were actively looking for big ships, and retreated when encountered a British flotilla while the British flotilla didn't detect them. I could be wrong, though. In any case, flotilla sinking multiple battleships is not probable, but the original title was "WI German navy destroys British navy in Jutland", and while this wouldn't be exactly destruction, it would be a heavy blow that takes GF out of the sea for a while.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
It was bad leadership why the destroyers and torpedo boats did not find the enemy battle fleet indeed. Though this is no reason that another commander had better skills and luck (after Skagerrak there were some personnel changes within the German torpedo boat section) has more success.
 
Exactly. Germans got lucky to survive the encounter with British both ITTL and in OTL. Scheer had no intention for second day of fighting, or chaotic night battle. He had more to lose. As for your other comments about German night fighting, both sides knew night action is chaos. German flotillas were meant to be acting as scouts, as decoy, and if they get the chance, as a surprise attack. IIRC they were actively looking for big ships, and retreated when encountered a British flotilla while the British flotilla didn't detect them. I could be wrong, though. In any case, flotilla sinking multiple battleships is not probable, but the original title was "WI German navy destroys British navy in Jutland", and while this wouldn't be exactly destruction, it would be a heavy blow that takes GF out of the sea for a while.

I can see the most successful destroyer night attack in the entire history of naval warfare taking place at Jutland. After all the most successful destroyer night attack in the history* of naval warfare on an enemy at sea and alert to danger did take place at Jutland ...it was carried out by the British but there you go. Even so even if you do better in terms of hits than the Japanese did against peaceful ships at anchor at Port Arthur in 1905 you are going to get no more than 3 battleships, each one above that really requires something of a magnitude shift in the chances. Yet while the loss of three battleships would have been an absolute disaster in pride and human terms it is unlikely to change to the course of the war.

Of course it might be enough to achieve your idea of the German HSF moving over to actually seeking confrontation with the GF but barring miracle upon miracle that is a tale that ends badly for the HSF.

*up until that point, some might contend that some destroyer actions in the second world war are compettive
 
It was bad leadership why the destroyers and torpedo boats did not find the enemy battle fleet indeed. Though this is no reason that another commander had better skills and luck (after Skagerrak there were some personnel changes within the German torpedo boat section) has more success.

But the British (and not only the British but the numerous night actions fought by other navies with similar levels of technology) give you some idea of what better looks like and it is not remotely good enough for what the Germans needed let alone what some AH.comers want. 1 or 2 battleships would have made for a very bad day and is itself unlikely, 3 would have found itself uncontested at the top of the table for most successful destroyer night attack ever and yet is still far from good enough.


The Germans were not incapable but the task is herculean and even then I think Hercules would need steroids (which I don't think would help his night vision awkwardly).
 
Can even ASBs make this work?

Even with a miracle victory at Jutland, Hochseeflotte is in trouble against Grand Fleet. Let's go for almost best possible outcome for Germans, because OP talked about DESTRUCTION of British navy. Britain lost 13 Dreadnoughts, including two of the new QE battleships that day, and Germans none, though many suffered heavy damage. Aaaaaand neither fleet is ready to sail in a while. Grand Fleet is still strongest. And British are outproducing the Germans completely. However, while this one victory doesn't remove British blockade, it can very well remove USW, and thus there is no USA in war. This can mean that war ends to French capitulation in Spring Offensive. Germany will invest in plane torpedoes, zeppelins and large ships instead of U-boats. Well, we know that those are not war-winners. It also is a shock to British morale. A huge shock. For ultimate Kaiserliche Marine-wank, let's have Beatty survive this and go looking for revenge. Beatty leads the Grand Fleet into U-boats and minefields, and gets routed by surprise Hochseeflotte. Now Grand Fleet and Hochseeflotte would be almost equal, until Britain outproduces them again. And Britain can get French ships to help it. But now the Germans actually have a shot at harming the British blockade. However, attacking the blockade while getting surprised by Grand Fleet is not a good idea, so Germans have to realize that British can read their communications, change codes, and Midway the British into a trap while harming the blockade. We now have 4 miracles, each bordering on ASB, and Hochseeflotte has achieved only a small edge. To completely remove the blockade, they basically need to raid Scapa Flow, and that is even harder than crushing Britain in Jutland.

I think Jutland could be fought so that Germans cause considerable damage, and more importantly keep out of USW, but Britannia will still rule the seas.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
Yet while the loss of three battleships would have been an absolute disaster in pride and human terms it is unlikely to change to the course of the war.

This is ultimately the point. Any probable level of destruction -- even including more losses to the British battlecruisers, and even combined with the loss of a battleship or three -- is unlikely to change the war on a material level. Where it might change things is on a morale level. After the failure at Gallipoli, then a British loss at Jutland, followed up with the meat-grinder of the Somme... if you put some butterflies landing on the Brusilov Offensive later that year to top it off, you might possibly get the Entente willing to accept Wilson's offers to mediate in 1916 as opposed to rejecting them out of hand. It's not a guarantee, but I wouldn't put it beyond the scope of plausibility if you want to make Jutland a significant turning point in the war.
 
Point being though, the HSF could have devastated the RN in the night battle, as JAG88 proved. This is hardly ASB. ASB is only something, which is not possible within the (known) laws of physic. Oh, as the German 30,5 cm/50 SK L/50 could penetrate the belt of the British BB at 10.000 m, this isn't ASB as well. The standard British 13,5"/45 Mk V Mk II A shell had an even lower penetration rate of 31 cm at 10.000 yards (instead of 34,5 cm of the German shell at 10.000 m(=10.940 yards)). And also not mentioned here the poor quality of these shells at the time of Jutland. And as every British 13,5" BB had a belt of maximal 30,5 cm instead of the 35 cm of the German ships, they were inferior of them in a 1:1 fight.

And the data for the British 15"/42 Mk 1 gun are not so magnificent either compared to the German guns. At 9.144 m the shell could penetrate 35,6 mm steel. Thus to become a danger a QE or R class BB had to get that near to a German BB. At the same time they had "only" belts of 33 cm and were still within the range of the German guns. The 38cm/45 SK L/45 of the Bayern class could penetrate 39 cm at 10.000 m and 35 cm at 12.500m. Again the low quality of the British shells are not included.

Yet as far as I am aware no British battleship had its Citidel Penetrated by shells during the battle despite


There was also several underlying causes harming British in OTL, such as poor communication, which could have gone even worse, poor performance from incompetent leaders cough cough Beatty cough cough, British turrets prone to exploding, British shells prone to exploding outside enemy ships, overall worse shooting than on the Germans, and the failure which was night action at Jutland. Also, British weren't exactly expecting Scheer to be able to evade disaster after his T was crossed. Twice. In OTL, these led to British failure to cause considerable damage on HSF. With some changes, they could together lead into outright disaster.

Also, there were things that were harming the Germans in OTL. Remove a few of those and you can get at least a minor victory, maybe even saving Lützow. Scheer didn't trap Beatty's force when he had the chance, because of lack of information. Sinking the whole BC force would be what Germans came to do, and it could be done without a single sunk German ship, with some luck, though heaviest British ships proved to be quite tough in OTL. And Beatty dying could actually be good for the British on the long run. Germans were going to have 10-14 submarines harming and scouting the Grand Fleet in advance, only two were in place, didn't sink anything, and got wrong information. Germans were also going to have Zeppelins scouting for the enemies, which could lead to Scheer trapping Beatty's force perfectly, and/or Scheer surprising Jellicoe and crossing Jellicoe's T. Though Scheer was not looking for a fight with Jellicoe, it could have still happened under right circumstances.

Even without more information, Scheer could still have surprised Jellicoe, if Jellicoe would have formed his battle line to west rather than east, which could mean fleets spotting each other when neither is prepared, and could lead to Scheer crossing Jellicoe's T once or twice and then trying to escape. This has the risk of British not turning away when their T is crossed, and getting to a fight like Trafalgar or broadside-to-broadside (though I don't think Trafalgar style pushing could have worked with battleships). And OTL proved that Jellicoe doesn't want to take unnecessary risks. Jellicoe had insufficient information on Scheer's position but still managed to make the safer call in OTL. IIRC this would also lead to the sun being in a position that favours German gunnery. In OTL, main fleet action was not decisive because the German fleet was actively evading British, and both did a number of mistakes. Still, Germans had fewer losses. With Jellicoe being the one who is surprised, I can't imagine the loss ratio turning to favour the British, though the losses might be somewhat more heavy for both sides). Especially considering that Scheer managed, with skill and luck, to evade major damage when his T was crossed, which Grand Fleet isn't capable of AFAIK.

Finally, the night action could have been a grim night indeed for the British. British capital ships were in loose formation, but separated from their flotillas. In OTL, German flotillas sent to cause damage and distract were detected, and German main force pushed through British flotillas. IIRC this was also the part where Lützow got critically hit. With German flotillas sneaking up to British ships undetected, they could sink, say, even three battleships. This of course needs luck, but isn't ASB. It is often streched how Germans had superior night training. This would also mean German main force having easier time with pushing through, as part of the British flotillas would be sent looking for the German ones.

Germans were somewhat lucky in OTL. With even half of these mostly plausible changes I listed, Jutland would be a name still cursed in Royal Navy.

Beatty might have been an idiot but he did his part in the battle - initially engaged the German Battle Cruisers and then upon realising that the entire HSF was at sea led them into a Grand Fleet sized trap.

Jellico did not have to take any risks - the Staus Quo was that Brittania ruled the waves - Sheer was attempting to challenge the Status Quo - he failed.

His leadership from 18:30 onwards in extracting the HSF and ensuring its survival is to be applauded and was something that the fleet had trained for (and quite sensibly so).

The Night action could have been Grimm for both sides but Sheer was trying to Break contact and escape, not to try and win the battle in a risky and confusing night fight and Jellico was attempting to stay between Sheer and his home port in order to continue the battle at sun up in favorable terms.
 
I am myself making a timeline where Jutland goes somewhat better for Germans, but the naval actions are not the thing that makes Central Powers win, but the butterflies keeping USA and Brazil out and the fear of invasion hurting British morale. After Jutland, fair engagements are avoided, but Germans manage to do all sorts of operations to wear down the Grand Fleet and the blockade, and are partly successful. At the end of war, North Sea is a region neither side can claim to control, and British blockade might even be forced open by late 1917, but this far I am testing my theories and ideas in threads like this. So in a way Jutland is the decisive turning point in the war, but neither side knows it.

If I have understood correctly making night flotilla action to cause damage is much harder than Jellicoe making a few more mistakes and Scheer a little less meaning heavier damage to both Jellicoe and Beatty. Correct me if I am wrong. And what would be plausible losses for British in any of these scenarios?

And after minor German victory in Jutland, is there plausible ways to harm Grand Fleet one or more times without taking heavy damage or even better, to harm British blockade? I myself had thought about Scheer tricking Grand Fleet into mines and U-boats (they had a plan for this in OTL... in 1918.), but it has the problem of British having the German codes. Is there non-ASB way to make Germans know their codes have been compromised, with British still thinking that all is okay?
 
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