WI German navy destroys British navy in Jutland.

GF SOMEWHAT knows, but there was trouble in OTL when they were not sure how to form their battle line and where exactly Beatty is. IIRC it was because of Beatty's poor communicating. And yes, if Scheer had enough time he would have retreated. Let's say that the Zeppelin spots the Grand Fleet just minutes before the Grand Fleet would spot HSF, and manages to tell in time how Scheer can flank them. Scheer is not willing to risk a full battle, but in this scenario he has little chance of doing otherwise, can disengage fast, and has a hefty advantage through the fast battle.
 
And I still don't have one definite answer: Would German flotillas be able, with some luck involved, to cause heavy/considerable damage to British Battleships and BCs? And how heavy damage, while still being able to retreat with light/no losses? Also would the amount of information gained from U-boats and Zeppelins be enough for Scheer to surprise Jellicoe instead of other way around? Someone suggested somewhere that Scheer could strike before Jellicoe has organized a battle line, and turn away fast. This would still mean British fleet trying to follow the German fleet. And how heavy losses would this cause to the British? Let's assume that if the surprise succeeds, Scheer will cross Jellicoes T twice quickly and then retreat with using torpedo salvo to prevent British closing in.

The issue is that the GF knows where the HSF is because it tried to Trap Beatty's Battle Cruiser force and if Scheer knows the Grand Fleet is bearing down on him - he is turning about and running back to Wilhelmshaven.

So all that would be achieved here is the battle being broken off much earlier and Sheer attempting to withdraw without making contact with the Home Fleet.

He is not about to deliberately get his fleet involved in a disadvantageous fight vs a peer opponent, that wasn't what he had left Germany to do.

IMO had Sheer done as you suggested then yes the potential existed for more losses to be inflicted on the Royal Navy but their was an even greater possibility of much greater losses being inflicted on the German Navy who were far less able to absorb such losses.


Indeed Scheer did turn away fast...he still got hammered in the battle and the problem for Scheer when it comes to crossing Jellicoe's T is that Jellicoe has the faster ships, he is not dragging ageing pre-dreadnoughts along and he has fast battleship as well as more and typically faster (if proving a bit brittle) battlecruisers. Scheer tries playing fast and loose with manoeuvres and the likelihood is that 2nd Battle Squadron(HSF) get cut off and pounded. Also recall that defensive manoeuvres are easier to pull off than offensive ones. the art of going from three divisions ahead into line of battle was centuries old and one the GF had practised often.

If Scheer did cross the British T then the British have 24 battleships in line which will not be looking to turn away but will turn instead to engage. The Grand Fleet in the same position inflicted disabling damage on 6 of the German battleships with having the German T twice, so you might disable similar number of British battleships but that still leaves the other 18 which is still a force stronger than the entire High Seas Fleet battle line and is still reinforced by a far greater number of aggressively handled light units.

The Kaiserliche Marine always knew the best they could hope to inflict on the Royal Navy was attritional damage, they also knew they could not bear it in return. The huge hurdle for the HSF was they needed to win big and win big at least once again while the GF only ever had to not lose badly once.
 
Torpedo salvo forced Jellicoe to turn away rather than engage in OTL and it would also work ITTL. Also, the positions of the fleets mean that if Scheer can cross Jellicoe's T, it will be crossed from astern, which makes it harder for the British to respond fast. And if I understood right, the battle-about turn which Scheer used saved a lot of his ships and also proved that he can outmanouver the British (not sure if it would work as well when on the offensive), which would mean heavier British casualties and bit lighter German ones than in OTL. I am not saying it is the most realistic outcome, I am saying that it is plausible.
 
Torpedo salvo forced Jellicoe to turn away rather than engage in OTL and it would also work ITTL. Also, the positions of the fleets mean that if Scheer can cross Jellicoe's T, it will be crossed from astern, which makes it harder for the British to respond fast. And if I understood right, the battle-about turn which Scheer used saved a lot of his ships and also proved that he can outmanouver the British (not sure if it would work as well when on the offensive), which would mean heavier British casualties and bit lighter German ones than in OTL. I am not saying it is the most realistic outcome, I am saying that it is plausible.

Crossing the line astern is not nearly as effective as ahead that is is why the T image is used...you want to be at the top. In effect when Scheer turned away that is exactly what he did, present the rear of his line to the enemy but it was vastly preferable to running headlong into ever greater fire.

As to out manoeuvring Jellicoe it should be noted that Scheer found his T crossed not once but twice. In fact the strong possibility is that if the Grand Fleet had been able to keep turning the HSF they might have isolated one or more squadrons which would have been a disaster.

On the other hand yes, it is possible that the Germans could perhaps have got even luckier but the likely margin is at the top end of extreme luck they add a battleship or two...beyond that we exit the arena of percentile chances and venture into the realms or thousands or even tens of thousands to one.
 
Torpedo salvo forced Jellicoe to turn away rather than engage in OTL and it would also work ITTL. Also, the positions of the fleets mean that if Scheer can cross Jellicoe's T, it will be crossed from astern, which makes it harder for the British to respond fast. And if I understood right, the battle-about turn which Scheer used saved a lot of his ships and also proved that he can outmanouver the British (not sure if it would work as well when on the offensive), which would mean heavier British casualties and bit lighter German ones than in OTL. I am not saying it is the most realistic outcome, I am saying that it is plausible.

lets not make out the about-face turn to be some sort of tactical masterstroke please - it was the Gerrmans 'oh shit, we're fecked manouver' to get them out of dodge

He so outmanuevered the GF that he was forced to use it twice
 
I thought it is widely accepted that it was a hard and successful manouver that saved them from getting absolutely destroyed, Scotty.

Rodent, what kind of damage would crossing twice closely from astern cause? I thought the distance is more important than the direction. Because at least it would not cause heavy damage to German ships, so it would still probably be better than OTL.
 
I thought it is widely accepted that it was a hard and successful manouver that saved them from getting absolutely destroyed, Scotty.

Rodent, what kind of damage would crossing twice closely from astern cause? I thought the distance is more important than the direction. Because at least it would not cause heavy damage to German ships, so it would still probably be better than OTL.

I have to say I am with Scotty on the turn away manoeuvre it was not a master stroke it was quite literally damage limitation.

As to crossing behind the line you have the enemy ships heading away from you becoming ever more difficult targets and shooting is hard in naval warfare, with either shells or torpedoes, some people do not grasp how difficult it is to hit moving targets in an age before computer assisted gunnery (and even then it is not as easy as people imagine). With the ships heading away the window of opportunity to inflict meaningful damage is far less.

But you did hit the mark in your reply to Scotty, Scheer's job is not getting destroyed. Jellicoe knows it would be nice to really wallop the HSF but it is not vital and so is not really prepared to trade any casualties for it. Scheer is like a rat in a trap running about in all directions looking for a way out while Jellicoe is just playing for time, the longer he can keep the battle going the more chance there is that Scheer's game will fall apart and the Grand Fleet will carve up the HSF.

Jellicoe was all up for round two tomorrow, Scheer was the one running under cover of darkness. There are in fact far more PODs where the HSF gets carved up, Jellicoe turns towards the torpedo attack...he might lose a battleship or two but he will definitely get Hipper's battlecruisers and if it turns into a chase he has a very good chance at the pre-dreadnoughts and if things go horribly wrong for Scheer at the dreadnoughts too. Jellicoe did not need to do it nor contemplated it as he and the Admiralty knew he did not need to but if the Admiralty had been in aggressive mood the day he presented the turn away plan the HSF might have had a very bad day a couple of years later. Another POD is that Jellicoe knew the HSF would be in one of two places, in OTL he guessed wrong as to the most likely route of the HSF but had he guessed right...either the HSF gets hurt in a confused night action or turns away again and it is running out of dark hours and deeper into the North Sea...cue duh duh duh and tune in next week.
 
I am aware that the Germans were lucky in OTL too. But I am looking for meaningful enough victory for Germany to forget any plans about unrestricted submarine warfare and concentrate in forcing the British blockade open. Even if they can't actually break the blockade, that would keep USA out of the war, and Germans could have some kind of win in 1918, with France collapsing to Kaiserschlacht.

Let's say that with a fair dose of luck, skill, information from the Zeppelin in the air, and more luck, Beatty's ships suffer more damage but still manage to make the run to north, where Jellicoe is looking for them. At this point Jellicoe didn't have sure information and wasn't sure where to form his line. Germans have the Zeppelin. Scheer manages to cross Jellicoe's line twice fairly close from the astern and retreat, while the British line can't/won't manouver to close in because of two torpedo salvos. Jellicoe still intends to continue the fight and not lose, and night formation is almost same as OTL. Then, luck is again on the German side because fuck it I need a POD and German flotillas get undetected near the British battleships, do what they can in the darkness, and retreat. This was meant to be done in OTL, but the flotillas were detected. After this, the British lighter ships move to chase flotillas and HSF breaks through the remaining British flotillas, as in OTL. What would the losses for British be? I'd assume German losses are only slightly less than OTL, crossing from astern is not a wonder tactic and British ships can turn, and longer engagement with Beatty's ships would mean more damage done by them too. Please do correct me if I am wrong.
 
I am aware that the Germans were lucky in OTL too. But I am looking for meaningful enough victory for Germany to forget any plans about unrestricted submarine warfare and concentrate in forcing the British blockade open. Even if they can't actually break the blockade, that would keep USA out of the war, and Germans could have some kind of win in 1918, with France collapsing to Kaiserschlacht.

Let's say that with a fair dose of luck, skill, information from the Zeppelin in the air, and more luck, Beatty's ships suffer more damage but still manage to make the run to north, where Jellicoe is looking for them. At this point Jellicoe didn't have sure information and wasn't sure where to form his line. Germans have the Zeppelin. Scheer manages to cross Jellicoe's line twice fairly close from the astern and retreat, while the British line can't/won't manouver to close in because of two torpedo salvos. Jellicoe still intends to continue the fight and not lose, and night formation is almost same as OTL. Then, luck is again on the German side because fuck it I need a POD and German flotillas get undetected near the British battleships, do what they can in the darkness, and retreat. This was meant to be done in OTL, but the flotillas were detected. After this, the British lighter ships move to chase flotillas and HSF breaks through the remaining British flotillas, as in OTL. What would the losses for British be? I'd assume German losses are only slightly less than OTL, crossing from astern is not a wonder tactic and British ships can turn, and longer engagement with Beatty's ships would mean more damage done by them too. Please do correct me if I am wrong.


The big problem here is that German Doctrine is against a fleet action. If the Zeppelins spot Jellicoe Scheer will move to evade...the most likely outcome is that Beatty misses the German battlecruisers completely because they are now running for it and he only found them by fluke. The most likely worst case scenario is that Beatty finds Hipper who blows up two of his battlecruisers before legging it. The Germans actually do better here than Jutland as it is 2 dot not counting light units but the British take fewer losses overall.

As to the idea that the Germans are going to run rings around Grand Fleet at any stage I would like to able to just say Deutschlands but realising that not everyone understands the crucial differences between these old battleships and dreadnoughts I will point out they not only had far too few guns which were on the small side but also suffered from machinery that was effectively a generation behind that in the dreadnoughts due to the step change in engineering capacities that had taken place between their being designed and their successors. The pre-dreadnoughts not only cannot expect to score many hits but they slow down the rest of the battle line because they are not merely 2-3 knots slower at top speed but they cannot maintain that top speed as long.

Further but the mechanics of passing close behind the enemy line mean you are exposed to their broadsides during the approach unless it takes place at a range that crossing the line is pointless.
 
The big problem here is that German Doctrine is against a fleet action. If the Zeppelins spot Jellicoe Scheer will move to evade...the most likely outcome is that Beatty misses the German battlecruisers completely because they are now running for it and he only found them by fluke. The most likely worst case scenario is that Beatty finds Hipper who blows up two of his battlecruisers before legging it. The Germans actually do better here than Jutland as it is 2 dot not counting light units but the British take fewer losses overall.

In an earlier post I said that the Zeppelin spots Jellicoe while Scheer is already heading right towards it, and Scheer has to decide between turning around and hoping the British won't chase him, and doing a fast surprise attack, then turn around before the action gets too tough. Scheer supported more aggressive naval actions before Jutland in OTL, so it is not too far-fetched.

As to the idea that the Germans are going to run rings around Grand Fleet at any stage I would like to able to just say Deutschlands but realising that not everyone understands the crucial differences between these old battleships and dreadnoughts I will point out they not only had far too few guns which were on the small side but also suffered from machinery that was effectively a generation behind that in the dreadnoughts due to the step change in engineering capacities that had taken place between their being designed and their successors. The pre-dreadnoughts not only cannot expect to score many hits but they slow down the rest of the battle line because they are not merely 2-3 knots slower at top speed but they cannot maintain that top speed as long.

I am aware that this isn't the best course of action, but it is IMO better than sailing straight into the broadside of Grand Fleet. Considering the positions of the fleets OTL, it is not too far-fetched to say that Scheer could approach Jellicoe in 135° degree or even bit more, which means that he isn't running towards a broadside, and while the British can turn around, it should still result in Scheer crossing British line from astern. This would of course result in British ships trying to turn port, to challenge the German fleet broadside to broadside, but now Scheer orders the battle-about turn, and two torpedo salvos, one in front of the British discouraging them from turning port, and other towards them to prevent them from turning starboard either. Grand Fleet was instructed to avoid torpedo salvos by wide turn, and that happened in OTL and will happen in this too. This time British are further away and not completely facing away from the Germans, and more shots are exchanged with less damage. Now, with Jellicoe making a wide turn on Scheer's port side, he retreats with 4 point turn and tries to avoid British fleet until nightfall.

Further but the mechanics of passing close behind the enemy line mean you are exposed to their broadsides during the approach unless it takes place at a range that crossing the line is pointless.

This is true. I think approaching in 135° degree angle or bit more (with straight towards British towards being 90° degree angle) would mean minimal damage to Scheer's ships, but it still doesn't mean they will survive without losses.

Overall it is far from most probable course of action, but it isn't ASB either.
 
The British line is six miles long, playing with angles is not going to save the HSF from being the broadside arc of at least some of those ships for a long time.

Oh and a quick added thought but the Germans if they want to engage must cut across from ahead of the British as they will never catch them from astern...those Deutschlands again.
 
Playing with angles will help somewhat. I thought about crossing the T normally, but that could easily lead to longer battle, and it is bit harder to justify considering the positions of the fleets, except if Jellicoe forms the line in opposite direction, which is actually a real possibility. But which one would help the Germans more:

Crossing the T once normally, then trying to disengage by circling around (doesn't work too long because of the older German ships, as you said) and/or turning around when British don't expect it, leading to British shooting in a full line to their astern, but avoiding broadside-to-broadside, and then just going forward with all power and avoiding British until night
(more damage done in initial attack, but British will try to prolong the battle and won't turn away, easier manouvering in the initial part but hard to avoid damage from chasing British ships)

OR

Crossing fairly close astern from British ships, then turning around and firing two torpedo salvos to prevent British closing in, then crossing astern again from pretty far and retreating safely
(less damage done initially to British, even if playing with angles and poor visibility means they will get close relatively easily, but a second opportunity to score hits and less risk of British causing heavy damage or prolonging the battle, easier retreat)
 
Playing with angles will help somewhat. I thought about crossing the T normally, but that could easily lead to longer battle, and it is bit harder to justify considering the positions of the fleets, except if Jellicoe forms the line in opposite direction, which is actually a real possibility. But which one would help the Germans more:

Crossing the T once normally, then trying to disengage by circling around (doesn't work too long because of the older German ships, as you said) and/or turning around when British don't expect it, leading to British shooting in a full line to their astern, but avoiding broadside-to-broadside, and then just going forward with all power and avoiding British until night
(more damage done in initial attack, but British will try to prolong the battle and won't turn away, easier manouvering in the initial part but hard to avoid damage from chasing British ships)

OR

Crossing fairly close astern from British ships, then turning around and firing two torpedo salvos to prevent British closing in, then crossing astern again from pretty far and retreating safely
(less damage done initially to British, even if playing with angles and poor visibility means they will get close relatively easily, but a second opportunity to score hits and less risk of British causing heavy damage or prolonging the battle, easier retreat)

I am not sure you quite grasp the scale involved here. The fleets cover multiple kilometres, are frequently travelling at 25-30 kilometres per hour and each ship takes entire minutes to respond to the helm, these things mass towards 20 k tonnes or even more when loaded for battle. Plus while visibility was not great during the battle this not a land battle where you can hide your movements to intercept behind intervening mountains like Wellington did at Salamanca. Here the enemy can see you as well as you can see them.

The Germans were not incompetent but they were at a huge disadvantage in any engagement with the Grand Fleet. The Grand Fleet was not just stronger in the battle line by a silly margin but also stronger in light units and torpedo herding works both ways. Scheer may have advocated aggressive actions but he never contemplated fleet action he was hoping to draw out the Battlecruiser Force or maybe a single battle squadron.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
It says a lot that the High Seas Fleet brought along those pre-dreadnoughts.
Think about it - a commander attempting to trap a fast force deliberately brought along ships which made his whole battle line several knots slower.
What that tells me is that without them the firepower disparity between HSF and GF would be too great to even risk an engagement at all...
 
To be honest, Rodent, I am not sure either. I started reading about modern naval warfare last week. Large part of what I think I know is something that some other stranger in the internet has written or me trying to apply tactics from earlier times, which I know and grasp better, though not too well either. If I knew how this stuff works I wouldn't ask these questions :p
 
To be honest, Rodent, I am not sure either. I started reading about modern naval warfare last week. Large part of what I think I know is something that some other stranger in the internet has written or me trying to apply tactics from earlier times, which I know and grasp better, though not too well either. If I knew how this stuff works I wouldn't ask these questions :p


Well when it comes to sure no one is or was sure about what exactly went on, even the trained professionals who were there. We tend to talk of Jellicoe and Scheer as if these titans were stood above it all making decisions alone but in fact they had staffs of officers each of whom was supposed to stuff their head full of all the fact of a specialised area because there was no way the commander was going to be able to keep it all straight. Then the fleets had to practice as fleets all their manoeuvres, one of the things that made the High Seas Fleet so able to respond to the sudden crisis of running into the Grand Fleet was that it had limited itself to just a few signals and a few manoeuvres and learned them really well.

That meant it could do things like the battle turn away but it was still highly limited in the choices of actions it had at its disposal. The Grand Fleet on the other hand had a greater recipe selection but at the price of being able to put these actions into effect more slowly. You might think of the HSF as having a great cerebellum and the GF as using its forebrain. The HSF can react fast, the GF can ultimately out think its opponent but is ponderous and slow about doing so.

It should be no surprise then that Jutland was much like a fight between a human and stray cat over an egg roll. The human ended up covered in painful scratches and bleeding but suffered no serious injury and got to keep its egg roll while the stray cat ran away hungry.
 
Making the weaker side win isn't too easy

I was aware that the battle was not fought between the 4 commanders, and very rarely manouvers are executed flawlessly. I also do know that on paper there is no reason for Grand Fleet to lose.

But I've decided to get a POD in Jutland that causes indirect Central Victory with hurting or even breaking the British blockade, and more importantly, keeping submarine warfare restricted and thus USA out.

I am not looking for complete destruction of Grand Fleet, but for a plausible, if improbable scenario where Grand Fleet takes a beating while Hochseeflotte does not and both Kaiser and Scheer will believe that breaking the blockade is better idea than starving Britain before Britain starves Germany.

How I see it, I have now three alternatives to this:

1. What I have been trying to test here: Jutland with German Zeppelin enabling hit-and-run strike against Grand Fleet because Scheer sees an opportunity and decides to risk it, which has the problems you've pointed out.

2. With the Zeppelin, Scheer can set a better trap for Beatty and destroy his force completely, then fall back before Jellicoe arrives. Battle of Jutland is decisive German victory, but much smaller than in OTL. This has a few problems, such as Beatty's force not being easy prey, the need for a later decisive battle which I'd had to develop from scratch, and the death of Beatty meaning one incompetent leader less for the British.

3. There is no Zeppelin in the air, but there is luck. Scheer runs into Jellicoe before Jellicoe has formed a line, or after he has formed a line facing the wrong direction, and improvises a hit-and-run strike, much like the one in 1. possibility. This probably won't cause too heavy damage on British, but means lighter damage for Germans who won't run into a battle-line. I'd expect Lützow survive this. The decisive and really lucky part is the night action, where German flotillas manage to sink a few capital ships and retreat with light/no losses, while main force breaks through British flotillas as in OTL.
 
It says a lot that the High Seas Fleet brought along those pre-dreadnoughts.
Think about it - a commander attempting to trap a fast force deliberately brought along ships which made his whole battle line several knots slower.
What that tells me is that without them the firepower disparity between HSF and GF would be too great to even risk an engagement at all...

I think that was more sentimental attachment; weren't they were the German Admiral's old squadron.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I think that was more sentimental attachment; weren't they were the German Admiral's old squadron.
I seriously doubt any commander would slow his battle line by two-three knots and include obsolescent ships for mere sentiment. I think the reason he picked that squadron was because they were the ones he knew could fight at a level that justified their inclusion. (They were also six of the most modern ones.)

Without them, the battle line comparison is 28+9 versus 16+5 - nearly every single capital in the HSF must fight at two-to-one disadvantage.
With them it's 28+9 versus 22+5 - a mere 20-25% superiority in pure numbers for the BBs.
 
I seriously doubt any commander would slow his battle line by two-three knots and include obsolescent ships for mere sentiment. I think the reason he picked that squadron was because they were the ones he knew could fight at a level that justified their inclusion. (They were also six of the most modern ones.)

Without them, the battle line comparison is 28+9 versus 16+5 - nearly every single capital in the HSF must fight at two-to-one disadvantage.
With them it's 28+9 versus 22+5 - a mere 20-25% superiority in pure numbers for the BBs.

Also remember that the intention was not to fight the Grand Fleet but to overwhelm a portion of it or the Battle cruiser force.

So not 28 + 9 versus 22 + 5

but

4 + 6 vs 22 + 5

Those Pre-dreads were there to increase the HS fleets firepower but in this instance they were not intended to fight the Grand Fleet

The other thing to consider is that the 16 German BBs were not ship for ship the equal of the 28 British BBs - ie the 4 most Modern the Konig Class were not the Equivalent of the Revenge or Queen Elizabeth Classes or even the Iron Duke Class.

So not only where the Germans Out Numbered but seriously out matched as well.
 
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