WI German invasion of Poland in late March/early April 1939

I read in The Age of Appeasement: The Evolution of British Foreign Policy in the 1930s, by Peijian Shen, that in March 1939 Ian Colvin, the Berlin correspondent of the News Chronicle reported to leading members of the British government in person:
that he had received information from various contacts in Germany which indicated that Poland was Hitler's next victim, and an attack on her could be made very soon, perhaps around the end of March.

What if Colvin's information had been true? How would the Soviet Union have reacted to a German invasion of Poland at that time. In OTL Neville Chamberlain made the declaration of the British government's guarantee to Poland on 31 March 1939. So presumably in this scenario Britain would declare war on Germany. What are likely developments for the course of the war?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Much too soon. The Heer had not yet been able to absorb the Czech munition works and intergrate the T-38 into the Panzer formations.
 

nbcman

Donor
Which poses an interesting conundrum for Churchill. :D

Er, Neville Chamberlain. Churchill was only elevated to the 1st Lord of the Admiralty on the outbreak of war with the Germans (3 Sep '39). Maybe Churchill can get an invasion of Norway going before the Germans ITL.

Without the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Germans will be much weaker without the Russians feeding them supplies during the Winter of '39/'40 and without integrating the Czech munitions into their army prior to attacking Poland, as CalBear has said.
 
Without the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Germans will be much weaker without the Russians feeding them supplies during the Winter of '39/'40 and without integrating the Czech munitions into their army prior to attacking Poland, as CalBear has said.

This is key - No M-R pact means that Germany would not attack. Adolf was not yet insane enough to start what clearly would be a two front war. After France fell in 1940, he got way overconfident.

M-R pact was not feasible in march either since the French/British were still dithering with the Russians about an alliance. By July, the Russians had determined that they needed to find another path. Ribbentrop's approach was then feasible.
 
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