WI: German Hawaii ?

[Magnum]

How could a German dominance over Hawaii have happened, and what kind of effects might it have had long-term?

The Germans had their fair share of clashes with the Americans, such as during the Spanish-American War or the Venezuela Crisis. Could a more colonially-inclined German Empire (e.g. earlier fall of Bismark) have struck a deal with the Hawaiian Monarchy prior to their ousting in 1893 and sent a squadron there to protect them from American or British encroachment? Maybe then have the Hawaiian monarch swear alliegeance to the Kaiser or something?

Assuming America doesn't go to war over this, might we see an increased desire by the US to join any subsequent WW1 analogue early, in order to gain Hawaii?

EDIT: Obviously, the POD would be before 1900, but since most effects take place in the 20th Century, I figured the After 1900 sub-forum was more appropriate. If not, maybe we can move the thread

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Well - ireally think that you need an early POD to make it happen - but this would definitely change the course of Europes history, so a 20th century might be different.

I say early becuase I assume as soon as the big sugar plantations appear its too late for another nation to gain the islands (That basically means you nee da pre 1850 pOD)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The only way I could see this happening is if there was a POD to make Germany a hereditary monarchy and a fully fledged kingdom a la France in the 1400s. That would then allow a huge Germany that includes the Netherlands, Belgium, and a large North Sea and Baltic coast to become a major naval power and player in the global trade economy from at least the 1500s on. Then due to its dominant position on the continent it can focus on expanding its empire/trade networks around the globe and colonize parts of North America like California and eventually take over Hawaii.

 

[Undeadmuffin]

The only way I could see this happening is if there was a POD to make Germany a hereditary monarchy and a fully fledged kingdom a la France in the 1400s. That would then allow a huge Germany that includes the Netherlands, Belgium, and a large North Sea and Baltic coast to become a major naval power and player in the global trade economy from at least the 1500s on. Then due to its dominant position on the continent it can focus on expanding its empire/trade networks around the globe and colonize parts of North America like California and eventually take over Hawaii.

Not necessarily, they already had the Marshall islands in 1880, they could have sailed all the way to Hawaii and deposed Queen Liliʻuokalani a whole 13 years before the USA did so

 

[Magnum]

The only way I could see this happening is if there was a POD to make Germany a hereditary monarchy and a fully fledged kingdom a la France in the 1400s. That would then allow a huge Germany that includes the Netherlands, Belgium, and a large North Sea and Baltic coast to become a major naval power and player in the global trade economy from at least the 1500s on. Then due to its dominant position on the continent it can focus on expanding its empire/trade networks around the globe and colonize parts of North America like California and eventually take over Hawaii.

According to wiki, the US Navy was in very poor shape at the time:

By the time the Garfield administration assumed office in 1881, the Navy's condition had deteriorated still further. A review conducted on behalf of the new Secretary of the Navy, William H. Hunt, found that of 140 vessels on the Navy's active list, only 52 were in an operational state, of which a mere 17 were iron-hulled ships, including 14 aging Civil War era ironclads. Hunt recognized the necessity of modernizing the Navy, and set up an informal advisory board to make recommendations.[75] Also to be expected, morale was considerably down; officers and sailors in foreign ports were all too aware that their old wooden ships would not survive long in the event of war. The limitations of the monitor type effectively prevented the United States from projecting power overseas, and until the 1890s the United States would have come off badly in a conflict with even Spain or the Latin American powers.[76][77]

In 1882, on the recommendation of an advisory panel, the Navy SecretaryWilliam H. Huntrequested funds from Congress to construct modern ships. The request was rejected initially, but in 1883 Congress authorized the construction of three protected cruisers, USS Chicago,USS Boston, and USS Atlanta, and the dispatch vessel USS Dolphin, together known as the ABCD ships.[78] In 1885, two more protected cruisers, USS Charleston and USS Newarkwhich was the last American cruiser to be fitted with a sail rig, were authorized. Congress also authorized the construction of the first battleships in the Navy, USS Texas and USS Maine.

The ABCD ships only came online in 1893-1896, before the overthrow of the Hawaiian monarchy. Any German expeditionary fleet would probably be strong enough to deter the Americans from getting involved.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Not necessarily, they already had the Marshall islands in 1880, they could have sailed all the way to Hawaii and deposed Queen Liliʻuokalani a whole 13 years before the USA did so

The Marshall Islands were an uninhabited chain of islands that nobody wanted; the Hawaian Islands were a major sugar producer that the US have major business interests in and would have fought over if Germany tried to claim it.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

According to wiki, the US Navy was in very poor shape at the time:

The ABCD ships only came online in 1893-1896, before the overthrow of the Hawaiian monarchy. Any German expeditionary fleet would probably be strong enough to deter the Americans from getting involved.

What expeditionary fleet could be sustained in the Pacific from Germany? And what foreign power would allow them to coal from their holdings if Germany went to war with the US? The US has the major advantage of being much closer to the Pacific and thus being able to sustain a major naval conflict there, while Germany did not. I mean if the Germans weren't willing to fight over the Philippines in the 1890s, why would they fight over Hawaii?

 

[Magnum]

What expeditionary fleet could be sustained in the Pacific from Germany? And what foreign power would allow them to coal from their holdings if Germany went to war with the US? The US has the major advantage of being much closer to the Pacific and thus being able to sustain a major naval conflict there, while Germany did not. I mean if the Germans weren't willing to fight over the Philippines in the 1890s, why would they fight over Hawaii?

Who said anything about fighting? It is well within Germany's power to establish bases in China and the Marshall Islands and have them ready by 1893 - nobody said the POD had to be 5 minutes before the Hawaiian queen was deposed.

And as soon as they establish those bases, they have the capability of sustaining a more than capable East Asian Squadron.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Who said anything about fighting? It is well within Germany's power to establish bases in China and the Marshall Islands and have them ready by 1893 - nobody said the POD had to be 5 minutes before the Hawaiian queen was deposed.

And as soon as they establish those bases, they have the capability of sustaining a more than capable East Asian Squadron.

Establishing bases on the opposite side of the world capable of handling a battle fleet and sustaining it then over half way across the Pacific is a project of decades and just wasn't ready and worth it in time before the US was ready to act. Remember Germany only became a country in 1871 and then only got into African colonies in the 1880s. Even Tsingtao didn't become a German colonial city until 1891

 

[Magnum]

Establishing bases on the opposite side of the world capable of handling a battle fleet and sustaining it then over half way across the Pacific is a project of decades and just wasn't ready and worth it in time before the US was ready to act. Remember Germany only became a country in 1871 and then only got into African colonies in the 1880s. Even Tsingtao didn't become a German colonial city until 1891

I think you would agree the main factor limiting German colonial policy was political will. A Tsingtao analogue could easily have been established 10 yeas early. Even OTL, the greatest impediment to the establishment of Tsingtao was the German admiralty's indecision as to were exactly to locate their new base

 

[Magnum]

Also, we're only talking about having an East Asia squadron that's at least equivalent to America's Pacific squadron, enough to deter a US declaration of war, not moving the entire Kaiserliche Marine to the Pacific

 

[CalBear]

Needs some serious pre-1900 chances.

Unless it is butterflied away by the Changes the Germans lose it, along with everything else in the Pacific after WW I.

 

[TFSmith121]

How could a German dominance over Hawaii have happened, and what kind of effects might it have had long-term? The Germans had their fair share of clashes with the Americans, such as during the Spanish-American War or the Venezuela Crisis. Could a more colonially-inclined German Empire (e.g. earlier fall of Bismark) have struck a deal with the Hawaiian Monarchy prior to their ousting in 1893 and sent a squadron there to protect them from American or British encroachment? Maybe then have the Hawaiian monarch swear alliegeance to the Kaiser or something? Assuming America doesn't go to war over this, might we see an increased desire by the US to join any subsequent WW1 analogue early, in order to gain Hawaii? EDIT: Obviously, the POD would be before 1900, but since most effects take place in the 20th Century, I figured the After 1900 sub-forum was more appropriate. If not, maybe we can move the thread

Look up the Samoa Crisis of 1887–1889; there's a reason that ended in a diplomatic solution. Even in the late 1880s, the British and Americans had more interests in common than in opposition, and much more in common than either did with the Germans. Bismarck recognized it.

Best,

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

Tocomocho (sp?) had a TL which included a Hohenzollern on the Spanish throne and a Hispano-German alliance which, when the US tries to launch the *Spanish-American War, sees the Germans take control over Hawaii in the post-war treaty...