WI: German General Franco

One thing that always stands out to me when reading about 20th century history is Spain's experience. A bloody and divisive civil war was somehow followed by 35 years of sort of sitting out of historical events while everybody else politely ignored the last big fascist regime. Then it was all topped off by a relatively uneventful transition to democracy.

So what would have happened if Germany had its own Franco? In other words, as the wheels started falling off of the Weimar Republic in the 1930s, what if there were a successful coup launched by a general who prized social stability above all else and who had a realistic assessment of the country's ability to achieve territorial gains through violence? What happens if 1930s Germany adopts a strict foreign policy of "please leave us alone" and gives up on regaining lost territory?

Does somebody still kick off WWII? Soviets? Japan? Habsburg revivalists? A stupid series of accidents in the Balkans?

Or do we jump straight into some kind of Cold War? What would that even look like without a big European war as the lead in?

I feel like there was a ton of interesting stuff happening in the 1930s that all got swept up into or drowned out by WWII.
 
Franco's neutrality was borne out of necessity, not choice. To have a strictly neutral Germany you need a weaker/more contained state.
 
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cpip

Gone Fishin'
Franco's neutrality was borne out of necessity, not choice. To have a strictly neutral Germany you need a weaker/more contained state.

Not beyond the realm of possibility -- would a more vengeful France, or a stronger Poland or Czechoslovakia that was willing to stand up to Germany and contain it do it?
 
Franco's neutrality was borne out of necessity, not choice. To have a strictly neutral Germany you need a weaker/more contained state.

It was weak, though. Germany needed an astounding series of lucky breaks to do as well as they did (would anybody let a TL pass with the Mechelen incident if it hadn't actually happened?), and all that it brought them in the end was crushing defeat.

I'm suggesting that a more realistic leader would have figured out that while they could possibly go on a rampage for a while if they threw caution to the wind, actually winning a big war in Europe was impossible.
 
The problem is that Spain was peripheral both geographically and economically to the rest of Europe; Germany isn't.

For better or worse, Germany is quite simply the most important state in Continental Europe both because of its position and economic strength. It would not be allowed to be neutral by the Western powers or the USSR. In OTL, it wasn't; the Stalin proposal for reunification and neutrality was rejected by the West (and Adenauer...) for fear it would fall under Soviet influence.

So my view is that any attempt to "sit it out " would be doomed to fail. Interference by both West and East would be inevitable...
 
How about this?


Hitler confronts Hindenburg in December 1932, and demands to be appointed Chancellor. Hindenburg takes offense at Hitler's manner and rejects him insultingly. Hitler flips out, and harangues Hindenburg abusively. Hindenburg becomes enraged and dies of apoplexy.

There is now no chance of Hitler being appointed. Hindenburg's successor (whoever) continues the stonewall against bringing Hitler into the government.

The Nazis are desperate and bankrupt. Hitler turns to the SA, and orders a "revolutionary" seizure of power. The Brownshirts, who number about two million, will seize control of the state by mass action.

The "Grosse Putsch" is only partially successful. The Brownshirts seize Berlin and several other major cities, decapitating the state. In a few areas, Communists try to take advantage of the chaos, unleashing "Red Terror" against businessmen, conservative politicos, and police commanders. They collaborate with the Brownnshirts, many of whom are ex-Communists.

But police and Reichswehr forces win in other cities, often with support of the SPD party militia. These survivors establish a "National Emergency Government" (NEG) based in Prussia (where the Putsch failed completely), and also controlling Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein, Pomerania, Hanover, and Silesia. The "German Civil War" follows, lasting almost two years before the Nazis are fully suppressed. The head of the NEG is General von Z---, a reactionary who prizes order above anything else.

The SPD, having fought against the Reds and Brownshirts, has a tolerated position under the NEG. Von Z---, like Franco, stays in power till his death - 35 years later. He grooms the Hohenzollern pretender, Ludwig Ferdinand (second son of the former Crown Prince; his older brother Wilhelm was murdered by Brownshirts during the Putsch) to become Kaiser, expecting him to maintain the National State. Instead, Ludwig Ferdinand, like Juan Carlos in OTL Spain, reigns over a restoration of democracy...
 
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It was weak, though. Germany needed an astounding series of lucky breaks to do as well as they did (would anybody let a TL pass with the Mechelen incident if it hadn't actually happened?), and all that it brought them in the end was crushing defeat.

I'm suggesting that a more realistic leader would have figured out that while they could possibly go on a rampage for a while if they threw caution to the wind, actually winning a big war in Europe was impossible.

But not weak to the point that it could not do anything even with a few lucky breaks. Spain was so weak, it wouldn't have been able to threaten, say, France, even with a lot of luck on their side.

The good of being a loony is that you could risk, then suddenly stop, and keep what you have won precisely because you don't adhere to caution.
 
One thing that always stands out to me when reading about 20th century history is Spain's experience. A bloody and divisive civil war was somehow followed by 35 years of sort of sitting out of historical events while everybody else politely ignored the last big fascist regime. Then it was all topped off by a relatively uneventful transition to democracy.

So what would have happened if Germany had its own Franco? In other words, as the wheels started falling off of the Weimar Republic in the 1930s, what if there were a successful coup launched by a general who prized social stability above all else and who had a realistic assessment of the country's ability to achieve territorial gains through violence? What happens if 1930s Germany adopts a strict foreign policy of "please leave us alone" and gives up on regaining lost territory?

Does somebody still kick off WWII? Soviets? Japan? Habsburg revivalists? A stupid series of accidents in the Balkans?

Or do we jump straight into some kind of Cold War? What would that even look like without a big European war as the lead in?

I feel like there was a ton of interesting stuff happening in the 1930s that all got swept up into or drowned out by WWII.


No ww2

The USSR stops being communist after Stalins death, and possibly breaks up into several nations, or stays together. The USSR may have democracy and an market economy, or it may have as originally happened a small group of people getting very rich.

No atomic bomb program.

If Japan attacks the US in 1941 then it takes longer for the US to respond because the US will not have increased its military industry as much as in the original timeline, however because the US can focus more of its effort vs just Japan, Japan loses faster. Then there are also the British and French who are not affected by a European war who will be able to resist the Japanese better than in the original timeline. The US economy may have expanded a bit because of sales to the British and French who need arms against the Japanese, but the economic expansion will not be as much as in the original timeline.

Japan will do as it did, attack China in 1937 have border skirmishes with the USSR and then declare war on the British, French and then maybe the US.
 
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Without Hitler and NSDAP, a General taking over the Weimar Republic look quite realistic option with groups like Stahlhelm (WW1 Veterans with close ties to Reichswehr)

But still the new Man on power, would have several To Do on his list:

"Make Germany Great Again" means restoring old border of Imperial Germany and reunite germans
"Unification with Austria" still is a option to recon with
"Give our Colony back, NOW !" top issue
"Revenge on France" Number one priority

harshly anything of a Neutral agenda

So on Long term this new Germany would expand in Europe like the third reich in OTL by reclaiming it former territory
Chamberlain would try a peace full solution out of that mess, but likely fail because of the Polish question (former german territory under Polish control) or Belgium question or the Danish or the Alsace Lorain question...
What let to occupation one of the nation by German follow declaration of War by France on new Germany
Here is interesting question: do this escalate into a World War ? or remain a local conflict France-Germany were Britain remain neutral ?
 
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