WI:German Army rebels against Hitler

After Hitler sends most of millatry force of Nazi Germany eastwards into Poland which is not invaded by Russia,France seize on opportunity to launch an invasion of Germany.With units tired of fighting in the west, undeveloped blitz, along with population not wanting to fight an excessive war, German Army loses Siegfried Line, and faces withdrawal in Poland. Declaring German generals as guilty, Hitler attempts purge of Army officers however this backfires as German soldiers had grown sick of him after his obvious strategic blunder. This allows German soldiers being led to rebel against him by the same generals much like World War 1.Garrisons across Germany rebel along with populace because of seemingly unwinnable situation and Hitler is overthrown. The new German govt begins negotiations with allies for a peace deal. What do you think will be the peace deal or will there be any sort of peace deal by allies instead of unconditional surrender, What will be the fate of Europe after such a small War
 
Last edited:
You're going to need one hell of a POD for France to go on the offensive. If France is willing to fight in '39, what stopped them in '36 and '38?

Also, if the Army rebels, the SA and SS are going to counter their attack. Civil War seems likely. Europe is in for one hell of a headache. Expect Stalin to move in and "stabilize" Poland as well as Germany. Are France and the UK ready to spend desperately needed money at home to fight, occupy, and then prop up Germany?
 
You're going to need one hell of a POD for France to go on the offensive. If France is willing to fight in '39, what stopped them in '36 and '38

Also, if the Army rebels, the SA and SS are going to counter their attack. Civil War seems likely. Europe is in for one hell of a headache. Expect Stalin to move in and "stabilize" Poland as well as Germany. Are France and the UK ready to spend desperately needed money at home to fight, occupy, and then prop up Germany?
There will be no civil war in traditional sense of word, the SA and SS were significantly smaller in 1939 and most of their units were fighting on front and were incapable fighting any civil war due to being greatly outnumbered. As for Soviets, all documents of Hitler Stalin pact were leaked into public which sent parts of Eastern Europe into Red scare along with opposition to becoming fascist vassals this led to much of Eastern Europe rising against Stalin and Hitler. Soviet Union did not invade Poland as it was afraid of war against all of eastern europe supported by Western allies.
 
There will be no civil war in traditional sense of word, the SA and SS were significantly smaller in 1939 and most of their units were fighting on front and were incapable fighting any civil war due to being greatly outnumbered. As for Soviets, all documents of Hitler Stalin pact were leaked into public which sent parts of Eastern Europe into Red scare along with opposition to becoming fascist vassals this led to much of Eastern Europe rising against Stalin and Hitler. Soviet Union did not invade Poland as it was afraid of war against all of eastern europe supported by Western allies.
If you think the military is turning en masse you don't understand the German mindset. They held to their oaths VERY seriously and they weren't about to just surrender the front to the French, even if they hated Hitler (France is the aggressor as Hitler attacked Poland, which many in Germany perceived as their sphere of influence). And Nazi paramilitary forces are sizeable enough to prevent a bloodless takeover by the military (and this would ONLY be the Army as the Luftwaffe and Navy aren't joining in). No airpower, enemy at their rear as well as to their front, traitors to the Vaterland; the German people aren't exactly going to support them after cracking after a year a fighting, likely calling them cowards for turning on their own rather than doing their duty. No civil war?

This isn't going to be over quickly and you'd better believe the Soviets will do what they can to gain from the chaos. Poland and the Baltics are going down while the Allies fight Germany (Stalin abandon an easy conquest?). Then ol' Joe will grin as the West bleeds itself white before moving in.
 

Deleted member 1487

You're going to need one hell of a POD for France to go on the offensive. If France is willing to fight in '39, what stopped them in '36 and '38?

Also, if the Army rebels, the SA and SS are going to counter their attack. Civil War seems likely. Europe is in for one hell of a headache. Expect Stalin to move in and "stabilize" Poland as well as Germany. Are France and the UK ready to spend desperately needed money at home to fight, occupy, and then prop up Germany?
In '36 it was the financial situation; France was basically insolvent and unable to pay for mobilization, let alone a fight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remilitarization_of_the_Rhineland#France
At the same time, in late 1935-early 1936 France was gripped by a financial crisis, with the French Treasury informing the government that sufficient cash reserves to maintain the value of the franc as currently pegged by the gold standard in regard to the U.S. dollar and the British pound no longer existed, and only a huge foreign loan on the money markets of London and New York could prevent the value of the franc from experiencing a disastrous downfall.[129] Because France was on the verge of elections scheduled for the spring of 1936, devaluation of the franc, which was viewed as abhorrent by large sections of French public opinion, was rejected by the caretaker government of Premier Albert Sarraut as politically unacceptable.[129] Investor fears of a war with Germany were not conducive to raising the necessary loans to stabilize the franc: the German remilitarization of the Rhineland, by sparking fears of war, worsened the French economic crisis by causing a massive cash flow out of France as worried investors shifted their savings towards what were felt to be safer foreign markets.[130] The fact that France had defaulted on its World War I debts in 1932 understandably led most investors to conclude if France should be involved in another war with Germany, the French would default again on their debts. On March 18, 1936 Wilfrid Baumgartner, the director of the Mouvement général des fonds (the French equivalent of a permanent under-secretary) reported to the government that France for all intents and purposes was bankrupt.[131] Only by desperate arm-twisting from the major French financial institutions did Baumgartner manage to obtain enough in the way of short-term loans to prevent France from defaulting on her debts and keeping the value of the franc from sliding too far, in March 1936.[131] Given the financial crisis, the French government feared that there were insufficient funds to cover the costs of mobilization, and that a full-blown war scare caused by mobilization would only exacerbate the financial crisis.[131] The American historian Zach Shore wrote that: "It was not lack of French will to fight in 1936 which permitted Hitler's coup, but rather France's lack of funds, military might, and therefore operational plans to counter German remilitarization."[132]

The Germans knew this thanks to intelligence, which is why Hitler even attempted the remilitarization of the Rheinland in the first place. In '38 the French didn't do a thing because they were just starting modernizing their forces (money came from leaving the gold standard, which allowed for the liquidation of their large gold stocks) and Britain didn't want to fight (they also had a number of very serious preparedness issues), while the Allies in general bought into German deception operations about how large and prepared their military was to fight:
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a095120.pdf
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-...dies/vol-62-no-1/pdfs/strategic-deception.pdf

And starting on page 65:
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD300/RGSD370/RAND_RGSD370.pdf
The second phase of the German deception was an abrupt change from the first. Beginning in 1935, the Germans “switched from dissimulative deception that concealed facts of secret preparations to simulative deception that concealed weakness” (Whaley, 2002, p.68). In this 67 year, Germany announced the return of conscription as well as the establishment of the Luftwaffe – which was immediately touted as being (miraculously) larger and more capable than almost any other air force in Europe. The strength of all of Germany’s armed forces would be exaggerated in this period, most notably its navy and air force. The effect was almost immediate, especially on British public opinion. Many British politicians had been downplaying German capability for several years and Hitler’s deception gave the appearance of the sudden emergence of a Luftwaffe equal in strength to the Royal Air Force (Watt, 1956, p.156). In reality this was not the case, but Germany’s simulative deception would impact key events for the next several years, to include the reoccupation of the Rhineland in 1936 and the Munich Conference in 1938.
 
In '36 it was the financial situation; France was basically insolvent and unable to pay for mobilization, let alone a fight. The Germans knew this thanks to intelligence, which is why Hitler even attempted the remilitarization of the Rheinland in the first place. In '38 the French didn't do a thing because they were just starting modernizing their forces and Britain didn't want to fight (they also had a number of very serious preparedness issues), while the Allies in general bought into German deception operations about how large and prepared their military was to fight:
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a095120.pdf
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-...dies/vol-62-no-1/pdfs/strategic-deception.pdf

And starting on page 65:
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD300/RGSD370/RAND_RGSD370.pdf
Exactly. Money was the predominant factor that made the Allies hesitant to act at all. So after spending what little they had on Maginot, why would they NOW be ready to ignore their defensive investment and invade (now if they invested in more offensive tech then I could see them making a real difference, but that wasn't stated by the OP)? On top of that, the horrors and losses of WWI which discredited offensive elan is going to need to be countered to alter French planning. They aren't going in full bore without the British and that isn't happening (the British more interested in a peripheral approach that is less casualty prone). I see cautious prodding before a serious campaign is initiated. Even then, what force the French are sending in will not be moving at lightning speed (especially since they won't be mechanized and the Rhine is a hell of an obstacle). So a rapid collapse of Germany isn't happening.
 
Last edited:
France seize on opportunity to launch an invasion of Germany.
The same France that went a few kilometers, kinda sorta occupied a village or two, then turned around and hid behind the Maginot Line? The same France that basically gave up and was rotting from the inside out with defeatism and fatalism?

With units tired of fighting in the west
See above. France isn't going to get hyper-competent without some big PODs which butterflies away the Polish invasion, the situation in the 1930s, and quite possibly the Third Reich itself.

undeveloped blitz
Also need a huge POD to have Blitzkrieg fail. The "charging tanks with cavalry" is largely a myth, but it was pretty clear Poland was unable to stand up to the German assault.

along with population not wanting to fight an excessive war
This I'll grant you. The German population didn't want war, but were still deeply supportive of the regime and Hitler personally.

German Army loses Siegfried Line
Not against the army facing them unless the OKW drank lead paint for coffee.

You need to have a better motivated and armed France to make this scenario work. The problem is, such a France is not going to allow Hitler to get into a position where he threatens the rest of Europe.
 

Ian_W

Banned
A revolt is much more likely if the French mobilise and stand by Czechoslovakia in 1938.
 
A revolt is much more likely if the French mobilise and stand by Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The PoD would be both France and Britain having a clear idea of the weaknesses of the German military. Better intel information and analysis to the senior political leaders.
 
France doesnt needs huge PODs to launch an invasion, yes France did invest significantly into defence as it believed that war would come home again but not in 1930s, its doctirine calls for preparation to face a much later German invasion against a much stronger German army as this doesn't happen, France just needs a sensible system which accepted that War was gonna happen,realized Hitler had no intention of stopping the war and that sees a huge German blunder of sending 80% of its army, all of its Panzer divisions and virtually all of heavy weapons to east, France invades Germany as it knows it is fighting an old out of age infantry. Honestly French advance is virtually assured, it is confusing what you say the POD is France realizes it has a great opportunity and invades Germany, even France was competent to do this.Germany would have to send forces from East westwards and march across land to fight Allies naturally Germany loses large swathes of land and completely loses trust in Hitler as he left Fatherland undefensible and committed a huge mistake which makes him faliure as millatry leader as well as Furher.
German Millatry was already planning a coup in 1938, it was postponed after War which they never thought winnable inspite of Blitz's success, Why?because they were led by Hitler and couldnt compare their industrial might with Britan especially after failure to hold Western Front and mostly likely losing territory right upto Rhine, Germany would have to again cross this river to invade France. Casualties? surely Rhine was best defense against German offensive centered troops, German army doesn't have ability to win Back rhine in the dead of Winter when great amount of of its armored equipment was in ruins post-Poland. This was why the German army told Hitler to delay his idea of winter offensive, Germans hadnt at this point fully developed Blitz, had not fully mobilised its population, would have smaller percentage of its forces fighting western allies. Germany would have problems of removing allies from its lands East of Rhine and it would expose secrets of Blitz to French. Come Spring France and Britain would be able to prepare for a modern war for eg French did not have much of airforce in OTL battle of France however this time a much larger investment in French Air force due to reality of war coming much quicker than anticipated allows France to field all its aircrafts while fighting to hold Rhine. France and Britan seemed to Win early battles of direct confrontation in fortified Fronts such as Rhine like Gembloux,having learned lessons in Germany they are likely to hold front of Rhine.
 
Last edited:

thorr97

Banned
Hmmm....

Okay, so the Wehrmacht is now fully engaged in crushing Poland.

And both the French and the British - in a move entirely out of character - decide on an extraordinary thing; they launch an immediate invasion of Germany. It's a mad rush, slap-dash, catch-as-catch-can operation.

But, with almost all of the German army hundreds of miles to the east, the Entente powers overwhelm what was left on Germany's western frontier.

The Entente know they'll most likely have to retreat once the German army gets itself turned around. So they're not expecting to stay for long. Instead, they roll through the Ruhr and devastate Germany's industrial heartland to the greatest extent that they can. Then, as they begin withdrawing in the face of the reoriented Wehrmacht, the Entente armies shatter as much of the German infrastructure as they can as they leave.

Now Germany is face with a shattered industrial base and a shattered rail, road and bridge - and canal - network as well.

And the Entente powers are now happily back behind the Maginot Line feeling terribly, terribly pleased with themselves. Oh, and they're also furiously rearming themselves as well.

Yeah, this could play merry hell with Germany's plans against the Entente.
 
The PoD would be both France and Britain having a clear idea of the weaknesses of the German military. Better intel information and analysis to the senior political leaders.
France and Britan had good enough idea of German weakness on western front, what stopped it from attacking was fear of wider war was that France did not want to offend Russia and Italy by invading Germany and Britain did not want a war with Germany to begin it was in contact with Generals who were plotting to overthrow Hitler or counsel him to secure peace. Britan indeed has better intel units as it has to get glimpse of Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and realize Hitler had seriously committed to war with this they would take necessary steps to attack Germany as British leaders would take Phoney war seriously.
 
Last edited:
France and Britan had good enough idea of German weakness on western front, what stopped it from attacking was fear of wider war, France did not want to offend Russia and Italy by invading Germany and Britain did not want a war with Germany to begin it was in contact with Generals who were plotting to overthrow Hitler or counsel him to secure peace. Britan indeed has better intel units as it has to get glimpse of Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and realize Hitler had seriously committed to war with this they would take necessary steps to attack Germany as British leaders would take Phoney war seriously.

I was referring to the Czech Crisis of 1938
 
I Don't know about "stunning" I've seen accusations by legit historians of deliberate falsification by specific French military leaders. Kline-Albrandt felt the picture presented to Chamberlins cabinet had more to do with internal Brit military politics than a professional analysis of German capabilities.
 

MatthewB

Banned
If Britain and France are truly guaranteeing Poland’s security shouldn’t the BEF along with French forces be in Poland from 1938 onwards?
 

Deleted member 1487

If Britain and France are truly guaranteeing Poland’s security shouldn’t the BEF along with French forces be in Poland from 1938 onwards?
A bit part of the reason they didn't was domestic politics and wanting to avoid provoking Germany, who was complaining about Allied encirclement strategy; nothing plays into Hitler's narrative more than stationing troops on both the eastern and western borders of Germany and gives him justification for the war he's been angling for, but Chamberlain is desperate to prevent.
 
Contrary to what some people here seem to think, France did have plans for a sizable offensive operation. It would have been too slow-paced and definitely half-hearted, but the main problem weren't either of these two features: it was that it would take something like a month to be ready, 3 weeks at best (they had planned for two starting from September 2).

I wouldn't rule out that the French generals, when Stalin entered Poland, gave a collective breath of relief. But had that not happened, it is possible that they would have actually pushed ahead some time between September 20th and 25th.

Now, they wouldn't have gone very far. Again contrary to popular belief, the Germans had not left that border wholly unguarded. They had third-rate divisions there, and lacking sufficient mobility, but enough for defensive operations. They had enough fighters to gain air superiority over that battlefield, and could redeploy pretty quickly Luftwaffe units (both more fighters and bombers) to their permanent air bases in central and western Germany. And by the first days of October they could begin redeploying ground units too.
The French offensive would have run out of steam by mid-October at the latest, probably much sooner. After having made more headway than OTL's offensive, sure, but not significant gains.

Now, had the French kept going, the Germans would have discovered they were running out of 37mm AT rounds (practically the only AT caliber). And other similar shortages. And they might have discovered that the Soviets weren't delivering anything of what they promised. And so on. But the French would not have pushed things. The losses would have been high for the attacking force; exactly the kind of thing the French people had been promised would not happen in a new war. With the October rains there's another reason to stop.

Is this enough to have the German generals try their coup? No. The enemy is at the gate and actually banging on it, but not all is lost. This is a situation in which any population, and in particular the German one, closes ranks around their leadership. Hold fast, stand firm, fight back. An attempt against Hitler would have no chance, and the generals would know it.
 
A bit part of the reason they didn't was domestic politics and wanting to avoid provoking Germany, who was complaining about Allied encirclement strategy; nothing plays into Hitler's narrative more than stationing troops on both the eastern and western borders of Germany and gives him justification for the war he's been angling for, but Chamberlain is desperate to prevent.

There were Polish reasons too. The question assumes the Poles were aware they were going to get trampled. They weren't. Many Poles thought they had a fair chance against Germany alone, and admitting they needed a foreign military deployment would be an insult. And the same choice not to provoke Germany was on for some while in 1938 in Poland too (then they began playing to Hitler's hand, some would say).
 
Top