WI: Gerald Ford was assassinated in September, 1975?

In September, 1975 there were two assassination attempts on President Ford's life. The first by Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme, a follower of Charles Manson, on September 5, and the other by Sara Jane Moore seventeen days later. Fromme never got a shot off, and was grabbed by Secret Service right away, while Moore got a shot off that nearly hit Ford in the head, but a veteran in the crowd grabbed at her gun deflecting the shot as she fired. So for this thread let's say the veteran Oliver Sipple was not close enough to Moore to do anything, and she doesn't miss, and the head shot kills President Ford. So Nelson Rockefeller becomes the 39th President of the United States on September 22, 1975.

I'd like to get a discussion going on how different things would have been over the last 37 years if this happened, but still have some important questions that would determine how big those changes could be. So my questions are as follows:

1. Does Rockefeller run in 1976?

I think he does since he's basically been running since 1960, and finally has the job, and now wants to win an election to cement his legacy as President as legitimate.

2. Does Reagan still run in the 1976 primary?

This I'm unsure on. For one thing Rocky was really liberal compared to how conservative the party was becoming at that time. So under normal circumstances, a challenge by the conservative faction seems likely. But we have the death of Ford occuring right around the time Reagan originally announced his intention to challenge him in the primary in the OTL. There is going to be a period of mourning and Rocky will get a bump in support for being the person we all look to for leadership though such a dark time. So this will definitely delay Reagan's entry into the race, and possibly butterfly it completely. Right now I'm leaning toward Reagan sitting this one out, and waiting for 1980, but I'd like to here what you guys have to say about it.

3. Who does Rockefeller pick to be his VP?

Because of his age, I don't think Rocky waits until the convention to pick his VP and running mate, and since the Democrats control the Senate with a big majority, he'll need to choose someone they'll confirm. I like the idea of Howard Baker. He's from the South, and is someone who is moderate and is respected by both sides, so his confirmation will be easy. Who do you think it would be?

4. If Rockefeller wins the Republican nomination does he beat Carter in the General election?

I think he can win. He won't have the Nixon pardon on his hands, and he'll get a sympathy bump from Ford's death. He can win most of the Ford states and most likely swings New York away from Carter. If Carter runs as inept a campaign as the OTL, those few differences between Ford and Rockefeller could be enough to switch the outcome.

5. Does Rockefeller still die from a heart attack in 1979?

So most people believe he had a heart attack while having sex with an aide at a townhouse in the city. The aide didn't call for an ambulance right away, instead calls her friend, and only an hour later do they call for help. As President he'll have Secret Service nearby 24/7, so even if he does have a heart attack, it won't take so long for help to be on the scene. So he might live in this scenario. Of course the stress of the job might cause him to die anyway, we don't really know. But for the next couple of questions I'm going to assume Rocky survives his heart attack.


7. If the period between 1977-1980 is close to as bad as it was under Carter, does Rockefeller run again, and if so does Reagan challenge him in the primary, who wins the Republican nomination in 1980?

Since Rocky took office with less than two years left on Nixon's term, he will still be eligible to run again in 1980. If he's still alive I'd like to see him run again, only now I definitely think he'd be primaried, and I think Reagan will be his biggest challenger. If Rocky doesn't run, I can see Baker or whoever the VP is running, but Reagan will still be a big force to reckon with. Right now I'm leaning toward Reagan winning the nomination, but I'd like to see what you guys think would happen. One crazy idea that could be a lot of fun would be if Rockefeller ran as an Independent after being defeated in the primary by Reagan.

8. After 12 years of Republican Presidents, do the Democrats win in 1980 and who is their nominee?

I think they'd have a good shot of winning here. Many of the bad things that occurred on Carter's watch will happen under a Republican now, so the Republicans can't run against Carter's record. So it will boil down to the Democrats picking a safe candidate that won't run a horrible campaign. I could see Jerry Brown, Scoop Jackson, and Walter Mondale running for the nomination, and maybe Hugh Carey as well. Who do you see getting the nod, and how does the election play out.

9. After a Rockefeller Presidency between 1975-1981, and possibly no Reagan Presidency, what does the Republican party look like today?

It would be interesting if this delays or even prevents the complete takeover of the Republican party by the conservatives. If we go with the scenario of Rocky being primaried by Reagan in 1980 and then Reagan losing the election that year, it would be a big setback to the conservative movement.

10. Finally, how would these last 37 years have played out? Would we pretty much be where we are today in terms of our economy and politics, maybe only taking a few different twists and turns to get here, or would this have drastically changed the USA by now, making it noticeably different to the average person dropped from the OTL to the new one?
 
I think a Rockefeller Administration in the late 1970s would only speed up the rightward shift of the GOP, particularly if he has to deal with the problems Carter struggled with. He'll be the Jim Callaghan to Nixon's Harold Wilson, the bitter end of the Keynesian consensus. Only difference is the Reaganites will have the wind behind them unlike Labour's Bennites.

If Reagan is the Republican candidate in 1980 and loses it won't discredit the conservatives, it'll be easy enough to point to three controversial terms under liberal domination giving the GOP entropy. Though given his age, a defeat might ruin Reagan's future hopes and discredit the idea of an actor in the White House to an extent.
 
I don't see how Rockefeller does not win. I see Howard Baker or George Bush as the running mate, and one of them as the nominee in 1980, who loses to a socially conservative Democrat.
 
I don't see how Rockefeller does not win.


There are several reasons why Rockefeller would not win.

1. Watergate

2. After 8 years of Republican presidents the American electorate would elect almost anyone that the Dems had nominated in 1976.

3. The economy is not doing well and rightly or wrongly any Republican president is saddled with the stigma.
 
Nelson Rockefeller wasn't in the best of health and wished to retire from politics anyhow. That and the future race was expected to be a Democratic victory anyhow. At best, he withdraws and endorses Charles Mathias for the Presidency.
 
There are several reasons why Rockefeller would not win.

1. Watergate

2. After 8 years of Republican presidents the American electorate would elect almost anyone that the Dems had nominated in 1976.

3. The economy is not doing well and rightly or wrongly any Republican president is saddled with the stigma.

1. He had nothing to do with Watergate; there is no "corrupt bargain" like there was perceived to be for Ford.

2. Carter nearly lost, even with Ford having pardoned Nixon.

3. The economy is usually enough, and you're asking the Americans to have their forth president in as many years.
 
Watergate

1. He had nothing to do with Watergate; there is no "corrupt bargain" like there was perceived to be for Ford.

I know that he did not have anything to do with Watergate, but after Nixon a lot a Reepublicans were painted with the same brush.
 
I know that he did not have anything to do with Watergate, but after Nixon a lot a Reepublicans were painted with the same brush.

Usually said Republicans were thought to have a connection, such as Ford. Rochy is not one of those Republicans, however.
 
I think the conservative nightmare of Rockerfeller presidency would be too much for the GOP. It ultimately depends on whether Rockefeller runs for an outright term in 1976.

A democrat would still have a decent chance in 1976 against Rockefeller. Were Rockefeller to sit it out that year, I could see Reagan coasting to the nomination and winning the general election, carrying Texas and Mississippi.

After twelve years of Republican rule, coupled with economic problems, the Democrats, lead by someone like Ted Kennedy, would win the Presidency, and perhaps dominate the political landscape for another 12 years. Here's a possible list were Rockefeller to decline to run in 1976:

Richard Nixon (Republican) 1969-1974
Gerald Ford (Republican) 1974-1975
Nelson Rockefeller (Republican) 1975-1977
Ronald Reagan (Republican) 1977-1981
Ted Kennedy (Democratic) 1981-1989
Gary Hart (Democratic) 1989-1997
Lamar Alexander (Republican) 1997-2005
Richard Gephardt (Democratic) 2005-2009
George Allen (Republican) 2009-Present
 
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