WI: Gerald Ford Assassinated

Maybe lessens the possibility of Carter becoming president, since assassinations tend to garner sympathy points.
Quicker end to Koreagate, which I believe was a contemporary issue.
I'll try to think of more ramifications later on.
 
The first item: the attempt occurred on 22 September 1975; i.e., essentially 40 years ago to the day.

Second: Nelson Rockefeller becomes president. He'll have to choose a vice president and then decide very quickly whether or not he'll run in 1976. That implies walking a knife edge of sorts: if he does elect to run, he has to know that his health isn't the greatest and that he may well be selecting a successor. If he opts out, his VP choice will be the prohibitive favorite for the 1976 nomination and a potential successor. Both of those suggest a nominee largely in accord with his own views.

But Rockefeller's brand of Republicanism was decreasing in popularity by then, and one suspects the more conservative wing of the party would have balked at someone like, say, Richard Schweiker (Reagan's stipulated choice for a running mate in 1976 had he gotten the nomination). And I have doubts that Rockefeller would have taken someone like Bob Dole: too much diversion of views.

So it kind of comes down to whom Rockefeller nominates as to how the presidency goes.
 
The big questions is whether Reagan challenges Rockefeller. If he does, he has a good chance of getting the nomination--after all, even *Ford* was insufficiently conservative for many Republicans in 1976, and conservatives had never reconciled themselves to Rockefeller, even if he had moved somewhat to the right. But it's just possible that Reagan won't run, feeling that it would be unwise to do it so soon after the assassination, that the country would not be in the mood for four presidents in two and a half years, etc. (And maybe Nancy is worried about him getting assassinated...)
 
Conservative Republicanism -- Out?

Could the assassination of Ford somehow lead to a repudiation of the growing Conservative take-over of the Republican Party?

Granted they were on the move -- Movement Conservatism -- but with Rocky in the top spot, could that momentum be blunted, even reversed?

Reagan had enough savvy to see challenging Rocky would be on a par with challenging LBJ after 11/22/63. And would the Neocons go back to the Left side of the spectrum after failing to "grip the levers of power"?
 
Reagan had enough savvy to see challenging Rocky would be on a par with challenging LBJ after 11/22/63.

There is a big difference. LBJ was ideologically acceptable to virtually all Democrats other than the segregationists. By contrast, a huge number of Republicans would never accept Nelson Rockefeller ideologically. Again, recall how close Reagan came to defeating *Ford* in the primaries, even though Ford was well to the right of Rockefeller. I do not deny that becoming president as the result of an assassination would temporarily strengthen Rockefeller's popularity in the GOP--but maybe not nearly as much as you think (at least after his first few weeks in office).
 
My sense of the situation is that Rockefeller had enough savvy to heed one of Dirksen's Laws of Politics: to get along, go along. That's not to say he'd become conservative, but he'd work with the more conservative elements of the GOP sufficiently to keep the neo-conservatives from taking over and to keep the more liberal wing of the party alive.

I'm also inclined to believe that Reagan might not challenge Rockefeller largely on the theory that yet another new face in the Oval Office would not work well--and partly on the get along/go along theory, in which Rockefeller demonstrates he reasonably acceptable to conservatives.

That said, that only covers the time up to the primaries in 1976 and doesn't address the will-he-or-won't-he question concerning Rockefeller and a run for the presidency in his own right. Remember, Rockefeller died in 1979 IOTL, and I have to wonder how long he'd live as president. Recall that IOTL he died of a heart attack (allegedly, some accounts say, as a function of gettin' it on with a 25 year old aide named Megan Marschack). Thus, some pathology would have had to exist while VP and while serving out the 1973-77 presidential term. The Marschack opportunity likely would not have existed, but there's the potential of stress associated with a term in office as a counterweight.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict a Rockefeller candidacy in 1976, with perhaps Howard Baker as a running mate. That might pave the way for a Baker presidency beginning in 1981, and would likely butterfly away a Reagan presidency.
 
I don't think that Reagan would challenge Rockefeller if Rocky ran, but, considering his age and health, is it certain that Rockefeller would run?
 
I don't think that Reagan would challenge Rockefeller if Rocky ran, but, considering his age and health, is it certain that Rockefeller would run?

Rockefeller seemed healthy in 1975, and often boasted about how long he would live: "To anyone who would listen, Nelson proclaimed his intention to live to a hundred, thereby surpassing even Senior's longevity record." https://books.google.com/books?id=yjuOAwAAQBAJ&pg=PT999 (John D. Rockefeller, Senior, had lived to the age of 97.) His health of course deteriorated rapidly after 1976, but that seems to have been largely because he knew he would never achieve his dream of becoming president. "Old friends detected a loss of vitality, the source of which was not hard to trace. 'It was over...He had had his last hurrah.'" https://books.google.com/books?id=yjuOAwAAQBAJ&pg=PT1000
 
That implies that the presidency would have helped prevent aging, unlike most presidents. The only other example that comes to mind readily is Nixon, BTW.

All right, let's assume Rockefeller chooses to run in 1976, and (seeing no counter-arguments so far) takes Howard Baker as a running mate. What next: does Rockefeller take down Carter in the '76 elections?
 
Rocky would become President, his choice for Veep would probably be someone like George Bush Snr, Rumsfeld, Dole or possibly Dick Cheney. A moderate, centrist republican, which would really annoy the right.
Rocky would probably run in '76, but I don't think he could beat Reagan.
 
Rocky would become President, his choice for Veep would probably be someone like George Bush Snr, Rumsfeld, Dole or possibly Dick Cheney. A moderate, centrist republican, which would really annoy the right.
Rocky would probably run in '76, but I don't think he could beat Reagan.

Probably Bush - Rocky and Rummy had a notoriously bad relationship (despite agreeing with each other on virtually every foreign policy issue) - plus Cheney is still Rummy's right hand man and lackey at this stage.
 
Thing is if Rockefeller does get the nomination, what will Jesse Helms and co. do? There was talk of a Conservative Party around this time.
 
Rocky would become President, his choice for Veep would probably be someone like George Bush Snr, Rumsfeld, Dole or possibly Dick Cheney. A moderate, centrist republican, which would really annoy the right.
Rocky would probably run in '76, but I don't think he could beat Reagan.


Would Reagan run? If he becomes president via assassination then there would be a lot of sympathy votes out there in both the primary and general election. We are talking the fall of '75 so the primaries would start soon. I think Reagan would wait until 1980 or lose if he runs.
 
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