WI:Gerald Ford Assassinated During The 1976 Election

Just a quick thought I've had, but what would have happened if Gerald Ford was assassinated during the 1976 presidential election? Lets say it happens after Ford get the Republican nomination.

So, my first thoughts are, this makes Nelson Rockerfeller President, although he refused to stay on Vice-President. He'll be President for at least a few months. So...

How will people react?

What happens to the Republican Ticket?

How do the Democrats react?

Who wins the election?
 
The matter would likely be decided by the RNC. I don't think Rocky gets it. Bob Dole (Ford's running mate) would certainly be in the running. Reagan, who almost knocked off Ford, might also make a play.

In fact, it might turn out to be a Dole/Reagan ticket which would likely beat Carter in 1976, unsullied as it was by Watergate.
 
It depends on when it occurs, if early in the campaign, then the RNC will have to decide depending on the rules then in place.

If sometime in October then Dole is the candidate as VP. If Ford/Dole is elected, then the Republican Electors would have to decide. They probably would vote for Dole and defer to his stated choice for VP.

If after the election, but before the Electors vote, see above.

If after the Electors vote, then Ford is elected and Dole gets sworn in on January 20th, 1977. Dole would then nominate a VP.

Reagan is the odds on choice for veep. He has sufficient votes from the primaries where he could not be ignored.
 
I know that Rockefeller is not the party's nominee for president per se, but, Dole is not the actual vice president, Rockefeller is.

Dole is the party's candidate for vice president, but he isn't actually the vice president at the time of Ford's hypothetical death...

so, if Ford is nominated, and Rockefeller ascends to the presidency/to Ford's position as a result of Ford's death, doesn't Rockefeller have some kind of claim to the presidential nomination once he's become the president replacing Ford?

I just wonder if there would be some traction for Rockefeller to have the presidential nomination "inherited" from Ford, much as he would have "inherited" the presidential position from Ford...

I would have compared the situation to LBJ running for re-election as president after he became president when JFK was assassinated, but then I realized that (presumably) Johnson had gotten the Democratic Party's nomination to run for president in 1964... I guess it's more up to the party as to who is the nominee than whether or not someone is actually an incumbent president.

Maybe I should just stick with what I said in a previous post on this thread...
 
I know that Rockefeller is not the party's nominee for president per se, but, Dole is not the actual vice president, Rockefeller is.

Dole is the party's candidate for vice president, but he isn't actually the vice president at the time of Ford's hypothetical death...

so, if Ford is nominated, and Rockefeller ascends to the presidency/to Ford's position as a result of Ford's death, doesn't Rockefeller have some kind of claim to the presidential nomination once he's become the president replacing Ford?

I just wonder if there would be some traction for Rockefeller to have the presidential nomination "inherited" from Ford, much as he would have "inherited" the presidential position from Ford...

I would have compared the situation to LBJ running for re-election as president after he became president when JFK was assassinated, but then I realized that (presumably) Johnson had gotten the Democratic Party's nomination to run for president in 1964... I guess it's more up to the party as to who is the nominee than whether or not someone is actually an incumbent president.

Maybe I should just stick with what I said in a previous post on this thread...

Nelson Rockefeller would become the 39th President for the remainder of the outstanding term.

The only precedent I know of for this occurred in 1872 when Horace Greeley (the Liberal Republican and Democratic candidate) died shortly after the election and before the Electors met. Since Greeley hadn't carried enough states against Grant, the EV was a proforma exercise, so the Democratic Electors cast their votes for whomever they pleased.

Most likely, if this (Ford's assassination) occurred after the convention, it would be up to the RNC to decide the matter. If it occurred in October, with less than thirty days to go before the election, I doubt much could be done since the ballot choices would already be closed in most states.

Likely, depending on the November result, the Electors would decide it. If the Republicans lost (i.e. of Carter-Mondale had more than 270 EV as occurred OTL), then the Republican Electors would be all over the map, perhaps splitting votes over Reagan, Rockefeller, Dole, Howard Baker -- whomever else they wanted to make a statement for - like Greeley's Electors in 1872.

If the Republicans had over 270 EV, then I think they would unite to chose Dole VP and he would succeed to the Presidency by terms of the 20th Amendment (s. 3) on January 20, 1977.

The question of choosing Reagan in place of Ford would be divisive because of the dynamics of that year's convention, which settled the question with the vote of the delegates (the Reaganites would be inserting the loser from the convention in place of the winner). Dole at least was the choice of the winner of the nominating convention to succeed him if something happened and Ford's choice of running mate was ratified by the convention.

Rockefeller as the sitting President could try to challenge that, but he would have an uphill fight because he did not run in the primaries and was not ratified in the role of Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate by the National Convention (in fact Ford had cast him off by not choosing him as his running mate). Politically, Rockefeller has a weak claim to the nomination, if any at all, being the sitting President in this situation is likely not enough.

Lyndon Johnson and Calvin Coolidge are the only close parallels here, both succeeded from the Vice Presidency less that two years before the next Presidential election, but both had time to establish at least a partial record of their own and each won their party's nomination (1964-Democratic and 1924-Republican respectively) through the regular process then in place.

Harry Truman had nearly a full term to establish himself, and he too was re-nominated in his own right through the regular Democratic process in 1948. The same held true for Theodore Roosevelt when he got the Republican nomination in 1904.

John Tyler, Millard Filmore, Andrew Johnson and Chester Arthur failed to gain a nomination for various reasons after succeeding a President who died in office.

Because of the short period of time left, and because this is proposed as happening after the convention and close to the election, I think Rockefeller would fall under the last set of precedents. I can't see the Republican electors rallying for Rocky at this late stage.
 
I agree that it would be a Reagan Dole ticket.While Reagan would lose many of Ford"s moderate voters, he, unlike Ford, would not write off the South. if Reagan wins, he would not have coattails. He would have to deal.with a strong Democratic Congress throughout his four years in office. It would be four years. in 1980,voters would blame him for the bad economy and the hostage crisis.
 
I agree that it would be a Reagan Dole ticket.While Reagan would lose many of Ford"s moderate voters, he, unlike Ford, would not write off the South. if Reagan wins, he would not have coattails. He would have to deal.with a strong Democratic Congress throughout his four years in office. It would be four years. in 1980,voters would blame him for the bad economy and the hostage crisis.

I wonder, what would that do to Dole's Presidential hopes? End them I suspect...

Also, who would the Democrats pick to run in 1980?
 
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