WI: Georgia shuts down the Roki tunnel in 2008

Barely a few minutes before dawn on August 8th, 2008, two car bombs, one of them a van packed with explosive, blow up around the military facilities at the southern entrance of the Roki tunnel, connecting South Ossetia with Russia. Minutes later, Georgian Su-25's begin attacking the facilities, using conventional bombs, incendiaries as well as tear gas. Soon after the bombing ceases, Georgian commandos are landed via helicopters close to their target, and, after a brief firefight with the dazzled survivors, manage to secure a perimeter.

With the situation having been somewhat stabilized, other helicopters bring in the second wave of forces, this time engineers. These proceed to blow up both the main and secondary tunnels using large quantities of explosives.

The rest of the invasion goes more or less as OTL (albeit delayed somewhat in order to coordinate with the Roki landings), with Georgian forces advancing on the Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali supported by artillery, rocket launchers, armoured cars and a few dozen tanks. They will probably mange to gain control of most of the city within hours.

With no way for Russia to send troops into Ossetia in time, will they still intervene ? And, assuming they still decide to, can Georgia pull of a conquest of Ossetia in time and present a fait accompli to the world ?
 
Oh, the Georgian Army can probably overrun most of S. Ossetia, sure. It's only 4,000 km2 and has c. 50,000-60,000 people. It just won't matter in the end. There's still the Russian Air Force, and if the Russians can't use the tunnel, then they'll just move into Abkhazia and use that as a springboard against Georgia proper. The war gets extended by a few more days, but nothing else changes. The power disparity between the two is simply too great.
 
Oh, the Georgian Army can probably overrun most of S. Ossetia, sure. It's only 4,000 km2 and has c. 50,000-60,000 people. It just won't matter in the end. There's still the Russian Air Force, and if the Russians can't use the tunnel, then they'll just move into Abkhazia and use that as a springboard against Georgia proper. The war gets extended by a few more days, but nothing else changes. The power disparity between the two is simply too great.

And in the end, Russia most likely makes Georgia pay for rebuilding a bigger and better Roki tunnel anyway.
 
And in the end, Russia most likely makes Georgia pay for rebuilding a bigger and better Roki tunnel anyway.

Oh, I definitely wouldn't put it past them, they can be petty like that. Especially after being humiliated like that (Georgians getting the drop on them and blowing up the tunnel).
 
As i understand Russian Army was in the Tunnel and if Georgia plan goes successfully there might be some troops killed in tunnel.
Without Tunnel Russia will send paratroopers to S.Ossetia immediately. Also there will be more Air strike against the Georgia and more loos of Russian aircraft.
With Paratroopers holding Georgian advance, Russian will send troops via Avkhazia and first conquer Poti port and Coastal Region then from there to advance to S.Ossetia. I think Georgia moght have more territories occupied by Russia. And will have more damage to Georgia.
 
It would take time to land armoured and mechanized formations into Abkhazia though. Would Putin still give the green light in that instance, knowing the war would drag on for weeks at the very best ? Especially considering the fact that the Russian Peacekeepers would probably be defeated and forced to surrender by then, allowing the Georgians time to relocate most of their forces west (probably only by night though).

Regarding the Russian air force, it lost at least 4 aircraft, with the losses only stopping once ground forces overran the Georgian air defenses (which won't be the case here). While it did inflict considerable damage on the Georgians during the war, it wasn't capable of decisively hindering their activities.
 
It would take time to land armoured and mechanized formations into Abkhazia though. Would Putin still give the green light in that instance, knowing the war would drag on for weeks at the very best ? Especially considering the fact that the Russian Peacekeepers would probably be defeated and forced to surrender by then, allowing the Georgians time to relocate most of their forces west (probably only by night though).

Regarding the Russian air force, it lost at least 4 aircraft, with the losses only stopping once ground forces overran the Georgian air defenses (which won't be the case here). While it did inflict considerable damage on the Georgians during the war, it wasn't capable of decisively hindering their activities.

It doesn't matter how long it takes or how much losses they sustain. Russia's (and Putin and Medvedev's) prestige will be on the line here by this point, and they will do whatever it takes to ground the Georgians beneath their heel.
 
It would take time to land armoured and mechanized formations into Abkhazia though. Would Putin still give the green light in that instance, knowing the war would drag on for weeks at the very best ? Especially considering the fact that the Russian Peacekeepers would probably be defeated and forced to surrender by then, allowing the Georgians time to relocate most of their forces west (probably only by night though).

Regarding the Russian air force, it lost at least 4 aircraft, with the losses only stopping once ground forces overran the Georgian air defenses (which won't be the case here). While it did inflict considerable damage on the Georgians during the war, it wasn't capable of decisively hindering their activities.

I don't know how long it will take to Abkhazia 1 day or 2. Yes, Russians won't stop it they will stick with their plan to "liberate" S.Ossetia.

I don't think Georgian air defense will stop Russian Air Force. In case Tunnel Road is blocked expect more intense and bigger airstrike which will destroy the Georgian air defense no doubt, albeit more loses.
 
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It doesn't matter how long it takes or how much losses they sustain. Russia's (and Putin and Medvedev's) prestige will be on the line here by this point, and they will do whatever it takes to ground the Georgians beneath their heel.

Regarding this, I was thinking something along the lines of:

- inability to send mechanized troops into S. Ossetia would mean Russian "peacekeepers" are forced to surrender - bad PR
- Russian civilians, hell - a RUssian puppet is completely conquered - bad PR
- sending in whatever airborne units can be deployed on the fly, in a piece-meal manner, in order to support the "peacekeepers"would likely result in even more bad PR
- a prolonged war (and it will be one, since it takes time to move all that armour and supporting units from Chechnya into a port on the Black Sea, find enough adequate shipping for it, wait for complete naval and air superiority to be achieved over the stretch of water in question, then unload them in friendly ports, organize everything, and then have them deployed to the front, ESPECIALLY if this is something they haven't really planned out - unlike their OTL incursion) will cause numerous issues on the international stage which are better avoided

Because of all of the above, isn't it possible Putin might go for a negotiated solution:
- Georgia gets S.Ossetia, but must grant it autonomy, promises to respect everything, compensate Russian civilians for their losses yadda yadda yadda
- In turn, Georgia officially recognizes Abhkazia and turns over the disputed Kodori valley to them
- Russian peacekeepers are left untouched and allowed to retreat in good order

While this would still be bad PR, if Putin is feeling somewhat risk avers, might he go for it ?


Alternatively, what's the maximum amount of damage Georgia could inflict upon Russia before being defeated ?
 
Alternatively, what's the maximum amount of damage Georgia could inflict upon Russia before being defeated ?

Three more planes and like six more tanks?

Their army dropped all the equipment and retreated. Their navy was all sunk and their airforce never tried to contest the air seriously. The resistance in on the Abkhazian front was pretty weak, too.

Basically the war goes very similarly once the Caucasus Group drives up the highway from Sochi. That might take a few days.
 
And Georgians need this? Since the majority of Georgians were not going to war with Russia because of some Ossetians.
I remind you that in the USSR, the Georgians were the most privileged and prosperous nation. In their hands was the sale of fruit and flowers, they have excellent wines. Georgians meant millionaire - their famous phrase: Keep the change! Now they are beggars.
Georgian anecdote the collapse of the USSR: Georgia lost its largest colony.
 
And Georgians need this? Since the majority of Georgians were not going to war with Russia because of some Ossetians.
I remind you that in the USSR, the Georgians were the most privileged and prosperous nation. In their hands was the sale of fruit and flowers, they have excellent wines. Georgians meant millionaire - their famous phrase: Keep the change! Now they are beggars.
Georgian anecdote the collapse of the USSR: Georgia lost its largest colony.

You know, I happened to be travelling in Georgia right before/during the first war with Abkhazia (specifically in 92). I was too young to appreciate the politics properly back then but I can certainly tell you about my other impressions.

Tbilisi was very nice of course, Poti was very nice. But some parts of Georgia were spectacularly poor even back then, like Mingrelia for example. Or Svaneti. The parts of Georgia that were metropolitan were as good as anywhere in the USSR.

And let's not be unfair, it's not that USSR was Georgia's personal colony, it's that the collapse of the common market and social welfare systems was bad for every former republic that didn't have the good fortune to get rescued by EU money like the Baltics.
 
And, assuming they still decide to, can Georgia pull of a conquest of Ossetia in time and present a fait accompli to the world ?

Well, that was certainly the plan, but it didn't work out that way.

If the Roki tunnel is blown, then Russia loses the easiest way to send troops into Georgia, but it could still do so. While it would be easy to send some elite airborne troops over the mountains, Russia is still limited in how many soldiers it could send over, especially with heavy weapons. That limitation will moderate the Russian response. There is too much of a chance of losing any military assets sent into Georgia without suffiient support.

Putin would certainly want to punish the Georgians, but he also wants a fait accompli. He cannot risk a prolonged crisis which is why he finally agreed to halt the Russian troops from advancing.

Both Georgia and Russia have a narrow window of opportunity. Eventually outside powers (America and Europe) will step in to make sure the conflict does not escalate.

I think the most likely scenario is this:
1) Georgia gets Southern Ossetia.
2) Russia is able to send troops into Abkhazia and prevent any repeat performance there.
3) Russia withdraws its forces outside Abkhazia, but recognizes Abkhazian independence.
4) World protests, but does nothing.
5) Putin looks for other ways to destabilize Georgia.
6) Sakashvilli more popular because he succeeded in reincorporating Ossetia, but country still traumatized by fighting Russia.

End result is remarkably like Georgia now except that Ossetia is part of Georgia.
 
Actually, I think this could mean the world clearly sees Georgia as the aggressor in this conflict. The US establishment (Georgia's main outside supporter) would have to do a lot of spinning with Georgia not only breaking the ceasefire, but conducting sabotage in South Ossetia AND RUSSIA.
Some butterflies I see:
-Global recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by more countries.
-Russian forces push on at least to Tbilisi. Saakashvili, if captured, is put on trial for waging a war of aggression.
-Georgian forces are not withdrawn from Iraq for their own safety. If the US flies them back as OTL, it could risk Russia being very upset at the USA.
-Individuals expressing support for Georgia (McCain, Graham, Biden, Clinton, Lieberman, etc.) could have a major blemish on their record. Those favoring a neutral position (Obama, Paul), might benefit, or they might not. Dana Rohrbacher, who said that Georgia was indeed the aggressor OTL, and is unlikely to change ITTL might become a front-runner for 2012.
 
Russia and Georgia agreeing in peace is ASB.
Whole point of conflict is Georgia wanted to confront Russian and get S.Ossetia and Abkhazai back.
You need to make research 1st. You need look whole post Rose Revolution period and evolution of Saakashvili foreign policy.

If Saakashvili succeed in getting S.Ossetia he is no way allow Abkhazai get independent. Next 1 to 2year he would get Abkhazia by force.

For Russia it was, to show other former Soviet states that Russia won't tolerate aggressive policy against its interest and ready to use its military for its interest.

So there is no chance to stop War in middle. Outcome is same with more damage to Georgia and Saakashvili more humiliated since he is now officially aggressor. Saakashvili bet was that Russia won't use force and Western World will back him whatever. There is no way US involve in this conflict when Election going and middle of one of biggest Economy Crisis.
 
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You know, I happened to be travelling in Georgia right before/during the first war with Abkhazia (specifically in 92). I was too young to appreciate the politics properly back then but I can certainly tell you about my other impressions.

Tbilisi was very nice of course, Poti was very nice. But some parts of Georgia were spectacularly poor even back then, like Mingrelia for example. Or Svaneti. The parts of Georgia that were metropolitan were as good as anywhere in the USSR.

And let's not be unfair, it's not that USSR was Georgia's personal colony, it's that the collapse of the common market and social welfare systems was bad for every former republic that didn't have the good fortune to get rescued by EU money like the Baltics.
Under the poverty I had in mind the lack of energy. Oil and gas - all a problem.
 
Russia and Georgia agreeing in peace is ASB.
Whole point of conflict is Georgia wanted to confront Russian and get S.Ossetia and Abkhazai back.
You need to make research 1st. You need look whole post Rose Revolution period and evolution of Saakashvili foreign policy.

If Saakashvili succeed in getting S.Ossetia he is no way allow Abkhazai get independent. Next 1 to 2year he would get Abkhazia by force.

For Russia it was, to show other former Soviet states that Russia won't tolerate aggressive policy against its interest and ready to use its military for its interest.

So there is no chance to stop War in middle. Outcome is same with more damage to Georgia and Saakashvili more humiliated since he is now officially aggressor. Saakashvili bet was that Russia won't use force and Western World will back him whatever. There is no way US involve in this conflict when Election going and middle of one of biggest Economy Crisis.

I would not be surprised if it turns out that Saakashvili received the tacit consent of Moscow's invasion of Ossetia Oh, he was very surprised when Russian troops entered there. High politics!
 

Hoist40

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I would not be surprised if it turns out that Saakashvili received the tacit consent of Moscow's invasion of Ossetia Oh, he was very surprised when Russian troops entered there. High politics!

I doubt it, especially since the Georgian Army drove their tanks right up to the Russian peacekeeper barracks and opened fire. No Russian leader was going to stand by and let that happen without a major response.

Saakashvili would really be an idiot in that situation if he did not give strict orders to avoid shooting at the Russians, especially at their barracks since there was no way to say that was an accident.
 
I doubt it, especially since the Georgian Army drove their tanks right up to the Russian peacekeeper barracks and opened fire. No Russian leader was going to stand by and let that happen without a major response.

Saakashvili would really be an idiot in that situation if he did not give strict orders to avoid shooting at the Russians, especially at their barracks since there was no way to say that was an accident.

Given that the Georgians have lived long in one country with the Russian, they could take over the famous Russian carelessness:).
Soviet-era anecdote: American arrived in the Soviet Union, opening the mouth goes well, and fell into a ditch. Out of there all dirty, swears: "In civilized countries, places such red flags wall!" Answer: "Guy, when you moved abroad, saw a big red flag?"
 
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