During the secession winter of 1860-61, seven states seceded from the Union. Six of them did so by large majorities, but the vote was surprisingly close in Georgia. Future VP of the CSA Alexander Stephens (who opposed secession) later ruminated that if as few as a thousand people electing delegates to the secession convention had changed their voters, the outright secessionists would not have had a majority and the convention might well have voted secession down. He also reflected that the weather in northwestern Georgia, where Unionism was strongest, was very bad during the voting and may have kept lots of people away from the polling places.
Maybe, maybe not. But suppose Stephens was correct. What if the weather was better in northwestern Georgia at that time and this resulted in the election of a sufficiently large number of Unionists delegates to reject immediate secession. What would happen then?