WI: George Washington died in 1779?

[luxtaythe2nd]

I was wondering today about what could have happened if George Washington died in the middle of the Revolutionary War in the autumn of 1779. The rebels had already received aid from the French and Spanish, however on the other hand the British were gaining ground in the South and the winter of 1778/79 was horrible for morale (the winter of 1779/80 was apparently even worse). Now, at this turning point in the war, how would the Continentals do without the brilliant George Washington? Who would lead the country? And, if the Continentals won, who would become President? How would the American political landscape of the 1780s, 1790s and beyond be affected by the loss of Washington, who played a significant role in the Federalist movement? These are the differences I imagine, feel free to debate me on this:

1. Somebody like Henry Knox or Marquis de Lafayette would lead the Continental Army.
2. The Revolution, which would be a bit put off by Washington's death, would receive way more funding from the French to keep it up (earlier French Revolution?). If the French don't want to fund the rebellion more than they already do, then it has quite a chance of failing.
3. If the rebels win, the Constitution is still signed, however without Washington on their side, the Federalists would be weaker considering that John Adams and Alexander Hamilton, the movement's two leaders, were rivals. With this we maybe could see a more divisive election of 1788 and a Hamilton candidacy.
4. From 1788 onward, the country is divided between the Anti-Federalists and Federalists and who comes out on top (at least during the 1790s and 1800s) is decided by who wins the election of 1788. The Anti-Federalists have a big chance of winning because of the divided Federalist vote.
5. If the British win, the French Revolution would still happen, but the rebels would probably a) flee across the Appalachians/somewhere else or b) fight a guerilla war.
I would say that the Revolution has a good chance of succeeding, even if Washington dies, especially with foreign aid and training for the Continental Army.

 

[Elfwine]

If Washington dies, it's probably the next most senior/best connected officer taking over. I'm not sure who that is off the top of my head, but I see Gates or Charles Lee as more likely than Knox or Lafayette.

There's still a pretty hard task ahead for the British to win ahead, but if the British have somehow managed to win here, it's going to be via that resistance has collapsed (given the immense problems with occupying large areas of the colonies that were at all sympathetic to the Patriot cause go beyond guerilla warfare or not anyway).
I don't think they're going to win if the conditions for any meaningful guerilla war still exist.

Not commenting on Federalist politics as I don't know enough on it OTL to speculate myself.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

- Charles Lee had been court-martialed by 1779.
- Horatio Gates had yet to embarrass himself at Camden, although he did suffer a loss of influence after the failure of the Conway Cabal.
- Knox wasn't high enough in rank/influence.
- Israel Putnam had just suffered a stroke.
- Artemis Ward didn't want the position.
- Lafayette was a foreigner.

If it's not Gates, it's going to come down to:
- Nathaniel Greene (Washington's favorite)
- John Sullivan (Who's coming off a decisive campaign against the Iroquois).

I think Gates will win out, but it won't help the Revolution.

 

[ThatHistoryLover]

Finally, something I can participate in! I don’t know enough about the ARW OTL, but for American politics, who knows if the constitution even gets signed? The Articles of Confederation hadn’t even been ratified, but it likely would have, because by then it was only really being held up by Maryland throwing a couple year long tantrum. The problem is that the only way Madison convinced all the states to come to the constitutional convention was by the backing of Washington. Lots of people thought that the Articles only needed to be amended or that they were fine as it was, even after Shay’s Rebellion. Maybe with all of Adams, Jay, Madison and Hamilton working they might be able to convince people to meet up and change it. Maybe strengthen the President of the Confederation Congress, allow the congress raise taxes, a judicial branch, and the power to raise a military, nothing too crazy, just a stronger government. Just to keep it simple, I’ll say that we get a government similar to what we have know where the states and congress have more powers and the president has less. The Anti-Federalists and eventually the DemReps were definitely a lot more unified than the federalists, with major players like Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Clinton, Gerry all having similar goals, motives, even mostly being from Virginia. The Federalists had the ambitious, cocky Hamilton and his High Federalists (People like John Jay) and the more establishment Adams and his less organized Low Federalists (People like Pickering and Marshall). In the beginning they mostly worked together even with policy differences, but by 1797 tensions from the Quasi-War had ripped the party apart. There’s a reason why the Federalists only had 4 years in office while the DemReps had 30. Washington was the only thing holding them together, and when he was out of the picture the party collapsed. Adams and Hamilton might have even formed their own parties without the memory of Washington. This means that you would have a Democratic Republican in charge during the French Revolution and Talleyrand’s Foreign Affairs Ministry- which would definitely be interesting.