WI: George Wallace does not run in 1968

What if George Wallace had not run in 1968? How much different would the election results be? Would Humphrey win? or Would Nixon still win?
 
It would be Nixon, polls showed that Wallace supporters supported him much more the Humphrey (he was the man that made the Democrats pro civil-rights). I think that some sort of unpledged electors similar to 1960 would win a few electoral votes.
 
What if George Wallace had not run in 1968? How much different would the election results be? Would Humphrey win? or Would Nixon still win?

Nixon would probably win more comfortably than in OTL. Yes, Wallace voters tended to be nominal Democrats, but they were the sort of nominal Democrats who (especially in the South) had voted for Goldwater in 1964 and would vote for Nixon in 1972. There is no reason to think they would vote for a pro-civil-rights northern liberal (at least on domestic issues) like Humphrey. Nixon's law-and-order theme was more to their taste.

This incidentally was confirmed by Nixon's campaign polls conducted by Opinion Research Corporation: "According to O.R.C., over half the Wallace voters preferred Nixon to Humphrey and a majority acknowledged they might switch choices before the election. This guided Nixon's strategy of appealing to the Wallace vote on the grounds that Wallace was a lost cause rather than by a direct attack on his principles." https://books.google.com/books?id=0RrsMRsvkHIC&pg=PA38
 
Nixon, 1968.png

This is my estimation of what it would look like.
 
Top