WI: George W. Bush Covertly Took Out Fidel Castro

I remember some years ago shortly after the invasion of Iraq that there was a rumor that George W. Bush wanted to invade Cuba and remove Fidel Castro or to remove him covertly as part of some of the secondary regimes not directly mentioned as part of the Axis of Evil. It's well known now that the CIA did try to initiate a cou against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela during the Bush years and the US put economic pressure on him as well. What if this had been true? Would it have worked?
 

birdboy2000

Banned
They tried and failed 638 times. I don't see why try #639 would be any different. Cuba's intelligence forces are very good at protecting Fidel Castro's life.

Castro is way too well-established by the time of the Bush administration to be vulnerable to a coup, as well. Decades-old Stalinist states, when they fall, do so because of public pressure, not because the CIA paid off some ambitious generals.
 
By W's time I think it's too late for anything to meaningfully change. Especially since Cuba was starting to do relatively well, economically-speaking, during W's first term. The world financial crisis hit them pretty hard, but by then plans were far advanced for Raul's takeover. An assassination would have probably helped cement Raul in place, actually.

Now Bush Sr., maybe. Cuba almost went under after the USSR collapsed. A little push and I think we could've had riots and at least a chance of opening up.
 
When Bush the elder reaped the rewards of Reagan's policies and the Berlin wall fell, Cuba was marginalized, because they lost their economic/military benefactor. At that point, they became nothing more than a walled off island. There was really no point in doing anything more than just waiting for the inevitable, and letting Cuba slowly rejoin the 'free' world.

W was left jacking off himself and thinking he was finishing off Dad's unfinished business, and surrounding himself with ancient cronies who were a decade or two behind the times. Yeah, I can see him thinking Castro was still relevant, and I can also see him f'ing up a wet dream.
 
The CIA did not initiate the coup against Chavez. I haven't even heard of any meaningful CIA support of the coup. Instead, the CIA obviously knew about it before it happened, and the US government definitely let it known that were not opposed to it. But the coup itself was probably entirely a domestic Venzuelan affair.

As for Cuba, Bush wouldn't invade. The US has not seen Castro as a large security threat for many years, and Castro has generally avoided any actions that would give the US a casus belli. An invasion of Cuba could not be done without Congressional approval, and Congress would not have given it in the actual circumstances of the 2000s.
 
Would W really want to reinstate the Batista thugs and cronies from Miami in power?

Actually... I think he would!

But no, George W Bush wouldn't have Fidel Castro assassinated, much less launch a full-scale invasion of Cuba. It's simply not worth it, Cuba doesn't have the same relevance it had during the height of the Cold War.
 
Would W really want to reinstate the Batista thugs and cronies from Miami in power?

That would require an occupation of Cuba to accomplish. As it stands, if Fidel was killed at this point in time, Raul would just take over, Cuba would condemn the United States, and relations with the rest of Latin America would suffer as it would look like the US was reigniting an old conflict for no real reason (and incidentally that would have been true).

Even if this were successful (and Castro has survived an unholy amount of assassination attempts), what gain is there really? Even if the US completely covered its tracks, it's not like the list of suspects will be all that long, the Cuban government and its people would blame the evil Yankee imperialists and the current trend of warming Cuban-American relations would be rendered politically impossible.

While the Castro brothers are a major part of Cuban politics, there are plenty of people who are going to be able to take charge if either Fidel or Raul or both are killed.

Bush liking the idea of being known as the American president who took out Castro is not at all outside the realm of possibility, but the cost of such an action would be enormous, and this is assuming that things don't go full-retard and lead to an extremely rough occupation of Cuba and subsequent guerrilla warfare. The Cuban government and people have lived under the shadow of the American military for years, is anyone at this point really assuming the Cubans don't have plans for a long-term and extremely brutal guerrilla war against an American occupation?
 
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