WI:George W Bush and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo don't run again in 2004

What if George W Bush and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo decided don't run again in 2004, who would be the presidents of their respective countries?
 
Why GWB wouldn't run? When he would make his decision not to run? If ITTL not happen anything markable, might be that then Democrat wins White House.
 
Why GWB wouldn't run? When he would make his decision not to run? If ITTL not happen anything markable, might be that then Democrat wins White House.
I am thinking Ron Paul 2004 in America...and Miriam Defensor Santiago in the Philippines..the two could make a good combo.
 
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