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This is much easier accomplished than I thought it would be.

All you have to do is have Perot finish the race a bit stronger, taking voters away from Clinton and causing the national popular vote to be tied between Bush and Clinton.

In OTL, Clinton won the national popular vote with 43 percent. Bush came in second with 37 percent, and Perot followed with 19 percent.

If you take 6 percent of the voting populace, spread uniformly throughout each state, and move that 6 percent to Perot's column, the final result is Bush 37, Clinton 37, and Perot 25. Moreover, the Electoral College ends up going for Bush by a hair. Here's how that uniform 6 percent transfer of votes would change the electoral map in 1992:

West: MT, CO, and NV flip for Bush
South: KY, TN, GA, and LA go for Bush
Midwest: WI and OH go for Bush
Northeast: NJ and NH go for Bush; ME goes for Perot

The end result is Bush 275, Clinton 259, Perot 4 in the Electoral College

12 states change hands with this kind of vote transfer (6 percent of all voters switch from Clinton to Perot).

This scenario is not unthinkable because Perot was riding high before he dropped out of the race in mid-1992 and might have finished more strongly had he never dropped out in the first place. Also, I'm fairly certain that Bush had hit his floor with 37 percent of the vote, but Clinton had not.

So what happens next?

1993-94 - No Gingrich Revolution. Democrats make gains in the 1994 midterms. Bush is a lame duck POTUS. Similar to the UK during this same era, everyone is waiting for a Tony Blair. George W. Bush loses to Ann Richards in the Texas governor's race.

1995-96 - The New Economy doesn't help the Republicans, who realize that they are about to go down big time in 1996. Bob Dole still wins the nod for the GOP despite a strong run by VP Quayle. Gore wins the Democratic nod as the junior member of the 1992 ticket --- the first Democratic ticket to hold the Republicans under 300 electoral votes since 1976. Gore trounces Dole in the fall and is seen as the American version of Tony Blair when Blair brings Labour back to power in 1997.

1997-2000 - Gore runs an Administration known for its ethics and is scandal-free for his first term. Gore takes credit for inventing the Internet and is seen as the political wunderkind of the new economy. Republicans make normal midterm gains in 1998 but still fail to take back Congress. Gore works more effectively with a Democratic Congress than did Clinton during his first two years, but Dems in Congress still overreach and 1998 is a pretty solid Republican year as far as midterms go. Gore rides the economy to re-election in 2000.

2001-2004 - 9/11 still takes place. Gore's response is regime change in Afghanistan and to otherwise treat the act as security issue, not an issue that requires use of the military beyond that. Americans are hungry for a stronger response, and Rudy Giuliani tops the polls of possible Republican nominees in 2004. Dems lose both houses of Congress in 2002 after the faltering economy plus 9/11 call into question Gore's continued prowess. Giuliani mounts a campaign as the anti-Gore and is brash and bellicose, winning over Republican primary voters.

2004 election - Gore is term-limited, so Giuliani would take on the Democratic nominee, likely Gore's two-term veep. Whomever Gore chose as veep in 1996 is likely to go down to the post-911 Giuliani in a 2004 election cycle in which voters want change. Obama still gives the keynote at the 2004 Democratic convention and still wins in Illinois that year.

2005-2008 - Giuliani, leading the first Republican Administration since George H.W. Bush, probably overreaches in all the wrong ways and creates more problems for himself with his personality, similar to Trump. Obama may not be butterflied away and may still become POTUS in 2008. Trump is probably butterflied away due to Giuliani filling the appetite for an irreverent New Yorker several years earlier.

Biggest changes - Republicans take Congress at a much later time, no Clinton scandals, no second war in Iraq, no 2000 election (as we know it), Clinton never brings Southerners back into the Democratic Party for awhile (Gore was much less of a Southern candidate), no GWB, and everyone forgets Hillary Clinton by 1993.
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