WI: George H.W. Bush wins re-election in 1992

I guess I just see a 1996 race in this scenario more like 1952 --- where the economy is a positive for the party in power but there's such an appetite for turnover that it doesn't matter.

Kemp seemed a bit old by 1996. That said, I think that both parties might have seen vibrant primaries if each side thought that it had a chance at victory.

The OTL primary field for Republicans was not the best. Not sure who would run in an ATL where Republicans felt there was a 50/50 chance of holding the WH.

It's also possible that Gore would have fallen to another moderate Democrat, maybe from outside the South. Not sure who would fit the young and neoliberal model other than he and Clinton.

The OTL primary field was weak for the GOP because they expected to lose. If they think they have a 50-50 (or even 70-30) shot at taking the White House, you'll see better candidates crop up.

I mentioned Jack Kemp already.

Phil Gramm or Lamar Alexander likely gets the nod of GOP leadership if Dole isn't in the race however.



Quayle probably runs here as well.
 
The Court might drift further to the right if Bush wins a second term as there's no guarantee that White and Blackmun would stay on until a Democrat is elected President in 1996 or 2000. If this is the case, given the backlash from the right Bush got over Souter and given the fact that O'Conner and Kennedy proved to be disappointments to Conservatives, Bush is more likely to replace them with Clarence Thomas like justices. If that does in fact happen, Roe V. Wade might very well get overturned. As for 1994, I think it's a Democratic year, but not a wave year like 1974 or even 2006 and I wouldn't be surprised if then Speaker Tom Foley still loses his seat like he did OTL. The Democrats would hold on and overall make small gains, but it wouldn't be a typical 6 year itch. With regards to 1996, I think the Democrats narrowly win the White House in an election similar to 1960 or 1976. They'll have a stronger field (Cuomo if he's re elected, Biden, Bradley, Gore, Gephardt if he isn't Speaker, etc...) than the GOP. Whoever they nominated will beat Dole or Quayle and said Democrat will probably ride the dotcom boom to re election in 2000, only to have hell break lose (dotcom bust, possibly something along the lines of 9/11, etc..) in their second term, leading to 1994 happening in 2002 and a Republican getting elected President in 2004. Bush probably handles foreign policy from 1993-97 better than Clinton did, but does the same or worse with Domestic policy.
 
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