WI: George H.W. Bush Wins A Second Term

Who would Vice President Quayle run against in 1996? And would he have won?

In 1992 Bush lost partly because of the economy, despite having had hgh approval ratings following the Gulf War. He lost, of course, to Bill Clinton. But in the Democratic primaries Clinton faced a tough challenge from Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts. If anyone else besides Clinton had won the Democratic nomination, it is not inconceivable that Bush might have won the election, as he was considered unbeatable early in the race and many well-known Democrats were afraid to challenge him. A Bush win might have given some of them the motivation to run against Quayle in '96-among them might have been Mario Cuomo, Richard Ghephardt and Al Gore, but my money is on this guy winning the nomination:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Robb

Like Clinton, he had a personal scandal, but he is known as being more fiscally moderate. If he had run, and won the Democratic nomination, he could have faced off against the Republican nominee in 2000 (my money for that would be on John McCain, since it would have only been four years since Bush Senior had left office and Bush the Younger might have considered it too soon to run).

Discuss!
 
Clinton won in '92 mostly because he was a southern moderate, and thus was acceptable to enough of the population. I've been preaching for years that a northern liberal democrat has an almost impossible task to win a presidential election. [although Obama will likely prove me wrong] It hasn't been done since JFK. My brother, who usuallysupports republicans, but didn't like Bush, supported Tsongas in the primaries, but he told me that he didn't think he had much chance in the general, and that Joe six-pack would likely regard Tsongas as 'another Dukakis', even though he was a lot more moderate than Dukakis ever was. [He must have been, for my brother to have supported him]
So assuming Bush beats him in November, and has his second term, then we come to '96. I cannot imagine Quayle getting the nomination. Too many liabilities; potatoe, Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy, etc. So the repubs nominate someone else, maybe Dole as in OTL, [although I can't imagine Dole beating anybody in the general, too old and boring, IMHO] Now, for the dems, who would it be? Maybe Clinton again, or Cuomo [another northern liberal] perhaps Chuck Robb; another possibility is Bob Graham of FL, who wanted to run in '92, but thought Bush was unbeatable. Graham did an excellent job as governor for 8 years, and I believe would have done the same in the White House, and he would have kept it in his pants.
 
If Bush I had won, we'd have a Brilliant Pebble orbital missile-defense system right now.

(Little satellites that ram oncoming missiles and can also destroy enemy satellites)

That'd be cool.
 
I don't think Dan Quayle would even run for president in 96, he probably make a surprise announcement, say February 4th 1995, in which he will not seek the presidential nomination but instead run for Governor of Indiana (also in 1996). Had Quayle not been chosen VP in 88 he most likely would run governor in 92 or 96. So as a result Senator Bob Dole becomes the presumptive Republican front runner with, more or less, the same candidates in OTL, Pat Buchannan, Allan Keyes, Steve Forbes, and Lamar Alexander. On the Democratic side Al Gore will be the inital frontrunner but he will have tougher time of it in this ATL. His challengers will probably be Bill Bradley, Dick Gephardt, Chuck Robb and perhaps John Kerry. Bob Dole wins the Republican nomination and choses Jack Kemp as his VP. For the Democrats its possible that Al Gore might not get the nomination perhaps losing in primaries in March to Chuck Robb. The VP pick will probably be John Kerry. Whether the ticket is Gore/Kerry or Robb/Kerry it will more than likely lose to Dole/Kemp if the ecomony is similiar to what it was in OTL. If so Bob Dole is elected preesident by a margin of 48% Gore or Robb 43% and Perot 8% During Bush's second term Bill Clinton will probably be forced to resigned as governor or does not seek another term. He probably will be convicted and serve jail time in connection with Whitewater. At any rate Bill Clinton will never be a viabel presidential candidate again.
Now how would a second term Bush Sr. react to the World Trade Center bombing of February 1993? the Somilia situatuation? Rwanda? Haiti? Bosnia and Croatia? And would the bombing at the Oklahoma City Federal Building still take place? Any thoughts?
 
Why would Bill Clinton get any jail time for Whitewater? The Federal government spent $60 million dollars and the final report on the matter states:

"This office determined that the evidence was insufficient to prove to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that either President or Mrs. Clinton knowingly participated in any criminal conduct."

If the Federal government couldn't do that after several years and tens of millions of dollars, what makes you think a state is going to do any better?

Torqumada
 
Why would Bill Clinton get any jail time for Whitewater? The Federal government spent $60 million dollars and the final report on the matter states:

"This office determined that the evidence was insufficient to prove to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that either President or Mrs. Clinton knowingly participated in any criminal conduct."

If the Federal government couldn't do that after several years and tens of millions of dollars, what makes you think a state is going to do any better?

Torqumada
The fact that Clinton's sucessor Jim Guy Tucker had to resign and serve jail related to the Whitewater scandal. Governor Clinton will likely become more reckless and sloppy. Others things will start coming to the surface; the mysterius death(suicide?) of Vincent Forster and Paul Jones coming out of the woodwork, to name a few. With this cloud looming above him Gov.Clinton may feel not to seek reelection in 1994. With Clinton out of office and a new administration in Little Rock (Gov. Mike Huckabee?) Jim and Susan McDougall, as well head State Trooper Danny Fergusson might be compelled to spilled the beans on Clinton. As POTUS Clinton could get away with a lot in terms of stonewalling and obstructing justice, but as a disgraced ex governor of Arkansas he would not have kind of power, clout and influence he would have as POTUS.
 
*shrugs* I don't see much really happening on a Bush second term. Cept the fact that the Republicans would soon win a majority in key places. (*doesn't exactly remember much of THAT time*) So I guess he'd get alot of the things he'd want (whatever they were) done. So I guess his second term would see a lot less internal fighting between the President and the other chambers.

But then what about '96?? I doubt Clinton would run again, if he lost to Bush, or WOULD be allowed to run again.

Though I'm sure he'd probably get into much more trouble, than he did OTL, over the whole Paula Jones thing. Without the powers and protection of the presidency, he'd be more liable to face the consequences of his actions.

He'd probably, more than likely, fade into the background.
 
Damn you, Perot!

If Bush wins a second term you can count out a Republican majority in Congress. Newt and the rest swept in on an anti-Clinton wave. With Bush in power, that won't exist and American politics will largely continue down the same road of a Democrat led Congress.

The economy would prove an interesting issue. Would Bush Sr. push through the same deregulation that Clinton did? I don't really think so. This could mean that the problems we're currently suffering through may not happen (one of the few positive spins of a Bush's second term), including the housing collapse, corporate corruption (Enron, others), etc. One of the reasons for the boom under Clinton was deregulation. Mergers were happening on a weekly basis, unethical business startegies were pursued, etc. I highly doubt things would have gone as badly as they have under Bush Sr.

On a more interesting note, I wouldn't doubt Bush Sr. being more aggressive than Clinton was in dealing with a fledgling Al Quaeda, especially after the 1993 WTC bombing. If Osama is in American sights, unlike Clinton I believe Bush would take the chance and end the bastard.

Most importantly, with Bush Sr. winning a second term, Bush Jr. (W) would likely wait out the 2000 election. That would allow the man a chance to fail as governor in Texas, expose his inept leadership style, and hopefully prevent his ever taking office.

That's how I see it anyway.
 
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The fact that Clinton's sucessor Jim Guy Tucker had to resign and serve jail related to the Whitewater scandal. Governor Clinton will likely become more reckless and sloppy. Others things will start coming to the surface; the mysterius death(suicide?) of Vincent Forster and Paul Jones coming out of the woodwork, to name a few. With this cloud looming above him Gov.Clinton may feel not to seek reelection in 1994. With Clinton out of office and a new administration in Little Rock (Gov. Mike Huckabee?) Jim and Susan McDougall, as well head State Trooper Danny Fergusson might be compelled to spilled the beans on Clinton. As POTUS Clinton could get away with a lot in terms of stonewalling and obstructing justice, but as a disgraced ex governor of Arkansas he would not have kind of power, clout and influence he would have as POTUS.

And none of those things have anything to do with Whitewater, which is what Standard X said he would go to jail for. If there is no evidence to covict him, there isn't any. As for the rest, it was the same thing he got impeached for, which is nothing he probably would have gone to jail for. I would be willing to bet Paula Jones wouldn't even bring to lawsuit, since the Clinton's don't have the money she is looking for or the need to embaress him in office and the people who backed her in the suit would feel no need to back a woman against an ex governor. Her initial legal team were high dollar DC area lawyers and then the Rutherford insititute. Do you really think they would have taken up her case if Clinton wasn't President. It was as much about politics as sexual harrasment. Jones herself states that she was used by the Republicans.

Torqumada
 
And none of those things have anything to do with Whitewater, which is what Standard X said he would go to jail for. If there is no evidence to covict him, there isn't any. As for the rest, it was the same thing he got impeached for, which is nothing he probably would have gone to jail for. I would be willing to bet Paula Jones wouldn't even bring to lawsuit, since the Clinton's don't have the money she is looking for or the need to embaress him in office and the people who backed her in the suit would feel no need to back a woman against an ex governor. Her initial legal team were high dollar DC area lawyers and then the Rutherford insititute. Do you really think they would have taken up her case if Clinton wasn't President. It was as much about politics as sexual harrasment. Jones herself states that she was used by the Republicans.

As someone else so put it, "Without the powers and protection of the presidency, he'd be more liable to face the consequences of his actions."
Governor Clinton had his share of enemies within Arkansas, and once he's defeated in the 92 Presidential the daggers were going to be shapen and ready for the kill. The corruption and scandals of his administration was going to come to the surface. It's quite likely that Vincent Forster would have committed suicide in 1993 or early 94 anyway. There were Republicans and even Democrats in Arkansas who would have like to see Clinton go down. So its quite conceivable that either of them could have use Paula Jones to sink Gov.Clinton's chances for reelection in 1994. With these scandals at the surface it highly likely that Clinton will either not seek reelection or be defeated in 1994. As such a young reformist Republican named Mike Huckabee is elected governer on the promise to "clean up the mess" in Little Rock in Nov, 94(two earlier than in OTL). After 14 or so years of Bill and Hillary in the state house many Arkansians will be sick and tired of them and would want a change. Finally, as I said before, With Clinton no longer governor the McDougalls, Danny Fergusson, and perhaps others, would be inclined to testify against him in exchange for some plea bargain deal.
Bill Clinton will never be a presidential candidate again but it's quite possible, like the former governor of his neighboring state Edwin Edwards, he could make a comeback as senator of Arkansas or even come back as governor years down the road; once again proving he is indeed the "comeback kid"
 
If Bush wins a second term you can count out a Republican majority in Congress. Newt and the rest swept in on an anti-Clinton wave. With Bush in power, that won't exist and American politics will largely continue down the same road of a Democrat led Congress.

The economy would prove an interesting issue. Would Bush Sr. push through the same deregulation that Clinton did? I don't really think so. This could mean that the problems we're currently suffering through may not happen (one of the few positive spins of a Bush's second term), including the housing collapse, corporate corruption (Enron, others), etc. One of the reasons for the boom under Clinton was deregulation. Mergers were happening on a weekly basis, unethical business startegies were pursued, etc. I highly doubt things would have gone as badly as they have under Bush Sr.

On a more interesting note, I wouldn't doubt Bush Sr. being more aggressive than Clinton was in dealing with a fledgling Al Quaeda, especially after the 1993 WTC bombing. If Osama is in American sights, unlike Clinton I believe Bush would take the chance and end the bastard.

Most importantly, with Bush Sr. winning a second term, Bush Jr. (W) would likely wait out the 2000 election. That would allow the man a chance to fail as governor in Texas, expose his inept leadership style, and hopefully prevent his ever taking office.

That's how I see it anyway.
George W. Bush was quite popular in Texas and did a pretty good job as governor of that state, in fact he did a better job than his predecessor Ann Richards.
 
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