Would he still win? If so, would he win reelection in 1992? What would the election of 1992 be like?

He likely still wins, yes. Reagan was very popular, and his coattails were quite long. Bush likely capitalizes on that as he did IOTL. As to '92? With a successful war against Iraq which is perceived by many Americans as righteous and boosting morale after the Vietnam era, an economy which is improving, and being able to cash in on the patriotic fervor brought on by the imminent collapse of the U.S.S.R.?

He could do it, yes. It isn't guaranteed. Rising taxes are unpopular, and can undo a lot of other factors, but it's doable.
 
I wonder what the ramifications would be. Would Clinton run in 1996 or would it be someone else?

Maybe Russ Feingold or Paul Wellstone could run and win, capitalizing on progressive energy. If 9/11 did happen, would give a large spike of support for Rally Around Flag. Even just an attempt would be enough to boost things.

This would butterfly Gingrich’s Revolution.
 
I wonder what the ramifications would be. Would Clinton run in 1996 or would it be someone else?

I think Dems will be in a good place to win after 4 terms of GOP members occupying the White House. There should be plenty of competition in the primaries. Would they go with someone more progressive given that Clinton and Gore had failed after positioning themselves as new Democrats?

I don’t know about the Republicans. Would Quayle be a shoo-in for the nomination because he’s the VP or will there be a contest in the primaries?
 

marathag

Banned
Would he still win? If so, would he win reelection in 1992? What would the election of 1992 be like?
Poppa Bush was still a weasel, and would get caught up in something else.
'Reading his lips' was not his only problem, but sour economy and shine was off the Gulf War
 
Hard to say if "no new taxes" was a deciding factor in the election.
if he had said no taxes that might have had a big effect.
Almost sound like an Onion news story, Bush promises to abolish all taxes.
 
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I think Dems will be in a good place to win after 4 terms of GOP members occupying the White House. There should be plenty of competition in the primaries. Would they go with someone more progressive given that Clinton and Gore had failed after positioning themselves as new Democrats?

I don’t know about the Republicans. Would Quayle be a shoo-in for the nomination because he’s the VP or will there be a contest in the primaries?
I think so, but it'd have to be someone younger. Jesse Jackson could try again, but not sure how well it'd go there. I don't know who would run and win.

Maybe Jerry Brown could try and could win. Possibly earleir Joe Biden, but skeptical there. Russ Feingold might if he channels the quirky underdog angle he used to win the Senate. Paul Wellstone would be a bit of a long shot there
 
If he hadn't raised taxes, then the economy would have been worse in 1992 and he would have lost anyway.

The question asked was not what happens if he does not back an increase of taxes. The question was, what happens if he does not make and then break his promise not to do so on the campaign trail?

In short, what if he asks Congress to pass the increase as IOTL, but never said...

"Read my lips - No new taxes!"
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
an economy which is improving,
Did the economy pull out of actual recession in his final quarter or two quarters?

Even if it did, that is not how the economy was perceived, and was not mirrored in employment figures, and cyclical re-hiring hadn't restored incomes and job levels lost in rounds of downsizing that had not been affected in prior cyclical recessions.

There was a broadly perceived national narrative scare about recession, downsizing and loss of manufacturing edge and competitiveness. Statistics collected in later 1992 or early 1993 may show this perception to be exaggerated. But it is also hard to separate statistical correction, from conservative narrative history control attempts that began the moment Clinton was elected or inaugurated and designed to counter claims there was a recession or economic trouble for his policy interventions to remedy.
 
Would he still win? If so, would he win reelection in 1992? What would the election of 1992 be like?

Bush still wins the election by a comfortable margin. Bush defeated Dukakis by large enough majorities that avoiding the no new taxes pledge would have made little if any impact whatsoever. Dukakis lost not because of the tax issue, but because of the peace and prosperity of the Reagan years and his own ineptitude as a presidential candidate.

The real difference is in 1992. Breaking the no new taxes pledge cost Bush dearly in 1992. It split his party and galvanized Buchanan supporters in the 1992 New Hampshire primary, while undermining Bush's efforts to make Clinton's "character" an issue in the campaign. For every time Republicans accused Clinton of being a womanizing draft dodger, Clinton could respond that their candidate lied in 1988 when he said "read my lips." Likewise, Ross Perot attacked Bush from the right for having raised taxes.

If Bush never makes the pledge, then he can only benefit from doing so. Firstly, he can sell the 1990 budget agreement as a legislative win that prevented a larger economic downturn while curtailing the deficit. Secondly, he would not be perceived by voters as weak or dishonest for having gone back on such a dramatic campaign pledge. If you swing 3% of the vote from Clinton to Bush, then Bush barely wins a second term with 271 electoral votes to Clinton's 267. It is possible that had he never made the pledge, Bush could have won a second term in 1992. But he would still be facing an uphill battle due to the economy, and his own lack of charisma. When participating in a nationally televised debate in the midst of a dire fight for your own political survival, it does not help to look at your watch like you can not wait to leave.
 
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Bush still loses everyone was pissed at him for the 91 recession, yes the economy had still recovered but unemployment still climbed higher in what was called jobless recovery and Bush came across like an out-of-touch goof. The only way Bush could win in 92 is via bimbo eruption.
 
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