WI: George Dewey was the Democratic nominee in 1900?

Who would win in this alternate 1900 Presidential election?


  • Total voters
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Back in 1900, fresh off of being paraded as a great hero of the nation for his victories in the Spanish-American War, George Dewey made a breif run for the Presidency. His campaign ended after a series of painful gaffes.

What if his campaign had managed to keep his mouth shut and stick him on a script, like the GOP is doing with Mitt Romney right now? Dewey would see it as just following orders like he has always done and stick to the script they prepared for him.

Supposing the DNC nominates Dewey, would he win in 1900 against William McKinley?

So, as in the poll above, who would win in that election, where Dewey does not make any gaffes, and is the nominee?
 
No, not even close. The Populists, invigorated, would have run their own candidate again and while nearly as strong as their last performance would have cost Dewey any chance he had at election. Dewey would take some votes away from McKinley but not nearly as many as he would lose to whomever the Populists nominate, likely Milford Howard a former Representative from Alabama.

Dewey, effectively, was McKinley-lite.
 
No, not even close. The Populists, invigorated, would have run their own candidate again and while nearly as strong as their last performance would have cost Dewey any chance he had at election. Dewey would take some votes away from McKinley but not nearly as many as he would lose to whomever the Populists nominate, likely Milford Howard a former Representative from Alabama.

Dewey, effectively, was McKinley-lite.

What if Dewey had chosen William Jennings Bryan as his Vice Presidential nominee? Would that be enough to appease the populists? The Democrats could also tailor the message to appeal to populists when the need arises.
 
What if Dewey had chosen William Jennings Bryan as his Vice Presidential nominee? Would that be enough to appease the populists? The Democrats could also tailor the message to appeal to populists when the need arises.
On even further reading it gets more complicated, but to address your point first. George Dewey's personnel politics diverged much from that of Bryan, and would likely make such a decision impalpable. Think of Bob Dole tapping Pat Buchanan; it just doesn't really work, and it makes it worse that Bryan, who was the nominee last time, would have to accept being the second man this time. I don't see him taking that step, instead waiting for a better opportunity.

Now, I was interested to find that the a faction of the Populist Party, the Fusionists who sought to integrate with the Democratic Party, nominated Bryan for President a full two months before the Democratic Convention. Now, I seriously doubt Bryan would sacrifice his political future and, having lost the Democratic nomination, run on a purely Populist ticket; still, the option remains there.

What this means though is that either you have the forces of Populism entirely behind Bryan as their candidate, or behind another candidate of their choosing, since they will not accept Dewey as their candidate. Also means the Populist Party continues to exist rather than merging with the Democratic Party, at least until Roosevelt becomes President anyhow.
 
On even further reading it gets more complicated, but to address your point first. George Dewey's personnel politics diverged much from that of Bryan, and would likely make such a decision impalpable. Think of Bob Dole tapping Pat Buchanan; it just doesn't really work, and it makes it worse that Bryan, who was the nominee last time, would have to accept being the second man this time. I don't see him taking that step, instead waiting for a better opportunity.

Now, I was interested to find that the a faction of the Populist Party, the Fusionists who sought to integrate with the Democratic Party, nominated Bryan for President a full two months before the Democratic Convention. Now, I seriously doubt Bryan would sacrifice his political future and, having lost the Democratic nomination, run on a purely Populist ticket; still, the option remains there.

What this means though is that either you have the forces of Populism entirely behind Bryan as their candidate, or behind another candidate of their choosing, since they will not accept Dewey as their candidate. Also means the Populist Party continues to exist rather than merging with the Democratic Party, at least until Roosevelt becomes President anyhow.

Dewey flat out said that he'd just be following orders from the Congress OTL; while he doesn't say this ATL, it still holds true. If the party leaders decided they had to incorporate the populists by putting Bryan on the ticket, then Dewey wouldn't give a damn. Like I said, he'd stick to the script, like a soldier following orders from his superior officer.
 
Dewey flat out said that he'd just be following orders from the Congress OTL; while he doesn't say this ATL, it still holds true. If the party leaders decided they had to incorporate the populists by putting Bryan on the ticket, then Dewey wouldn't give a damn. Like I said, he'd stick to the script, like a soldier following orders from his superior officer.
Problem is that the Party Leaders did not actually care for the Populists; they viewed them the same way that the Modern Republican Party Elite views the Tea Party. Sure they might place a token Populist, but it would amount to little given that Dewey would be the face of the ticket.

And again, Bryan would not accept anything less than the nomination for President; if anything he'll stay off and hope to win the nomination again in 1904.
 
Problem is that the Party Leaders did not actually care for the Populists; they viewed them the same way that the Modern Republican Party Elite views the Tea Party. Sure they might place a token Populist, but it would amount to little given that Dewey would be the face of the ticket.

And again, Bryan would not accept anything less than the nomination for President; if anything he'll stay off and hope to win the nomination again in 1904.

So is there any way that McKinley could lose to Dewey?
 
So is there any way that McKinley could lose to Dewey?
While I am of the opinion that anything is arguably possible, given the right conditions, I really don't see it here. Many of the groups that Bryan managed to bring in under his wing, especially the Anti-Imperialists, truly aren't going to be as "enthusiastic" about backing Dewey given he, privately, supported the acquisition of the Philippines and Cuba. The Populists themselves will run again with a significant showing, tipping the scales in many states out West and possibly in North Carolina.

Thing is Dewey is going to run a porch campaign, and depend on others to campaign for him; Bryan certainly will do so, but he is not going to exert as much effort as he did when he was the candidate OTL, and for this same reason he is not going to draw as many people over to the Dem ticket. Course the Republicans also still have Roosevelt, and he is not liable to slow down any.

In effect, you would need an entirely different economic situation, possibly in addition to an even more powerful insurgency within the Philippines to make it work; too much riding in McKinley's favor.
 
Just for the breathe some life into this.

Dewey is likely to lose, and the Populists will remain relevant for a time longer.

Come 1904, we have William Jennings Bryan as the Democratic nominee, given he would be favored, and of course then President Theodore Roosevelt. Assuming the Populists, or at least the Fusion faction folds into the Democratic Party what kind of race would we see there?

I assume a Roosevelt victory but would it be more or less decisive?
 
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