WI: Geopolitical effects of a surviving Soviet Union

[TimTurner]

Let's assume that Gorbachev successfully reformed the Soviet Union (through a successful Union Treaty) and retired triumphantly in 1995, after 10 years in power. It is a multi-party democracy still dominated by the Communist Party, which has lost only one Soviet-wide election since 1991. (a la Japan and the LDP)
The Soviet Union still exists as of March 22, 2019, with all its old territory except for the Baltic states.
Given all these conditions, what would geopolitics look like ITTL?

 

[starman]

A lot would depend on whether the USSR is still willing to rival the US, or limit its options. Had the USSR of Brezhnev still existed in 1991, it probably would've prevented desert storm. Assuming Iraq remained a Soviet client there almost certainly would've been no invasion in 2003.
Had a strong, confident USSR still existed in 1991, it might've paid lip service to getting Iraq out of Kuwait but still insisted there be no attack. It would've prevented the complete political and economic isolation of Saddam. Through him, it might've increased its leverage in the Persian gulf.
An extant USSR/Warsaw Pact would've forestalled what Putin has bemoaned--a "unipolar world" dominated by the US instead of a multipolar world.

 

[BigBlueBox]

A lot would depend on whether the USSR is still willing to rival the US, or limit its options. Had the USSR of Brezhnev still existed in 1991, it probably would've prevented desert storm. Assuming Iraq remained a Soviet client there almost certainly would've been no invasion in 2003.
Had a strong, confident USSR still existed in 1991, it might've paid lip service to getting Iraq out of Kuwait but still insisted there be no attack. It would've prevented the complete political and economic isolation of Saddam. Through him, it might've increased its leverage in the Persian gulf.

The USSR’s greatest ally in the Middle East was Syria, which had fallen out with Iraq decades earlier and was now enemies with Iraq. It would have to play its cards carefully.

 

[starman]

The USSR’s greatest ally in the Middle East was Syria, which had fallen out with Iraq decades earlier and was now enemies with Iraq. It would have to play its cards carefully.

The USSR provided a great deal of weapons to Baghdad while Damascus backed Iran. But to my knowledge Soviet-Syrian relations remained OK. Syria was heavily dependent on Moscow since there was no other nation willing and able to arm it sufficiently to have a chance against Israel. Also, Syria didn't want to see Iraq demolished by the US, since despite the rivalry, it still viewed Iraq as a potential ally against Israel. Iraqi units may not have been very proficient but their timely arrival may have saved the Syrians in '73.