WI: General MacArthur had refused to leave the Philippines?

[Alamo]

In late February, 1942, the situation was grim in the Philippines. US forces had been pushed back into an increasingly vulnerable position in the Bataan Peninsula. There were dire shortages in both arms and ammunition - soldiers had been placed on two-fifths rations, and were often so weak as to be unable to pull themselves out of their foxholes unassisted. MacArthur had stated that he intended to meet the same fate as his men, but received direct orders from President Roosevelt to leave the Philippines and take command of a still-forming army in northern-Australia. The general seemed utterly broken by this communique, and seriously considered disobeying his orders, and staying in the Philippines with his men, resigning his officer's commission and fighting as a private if need be. His staff managed to talk him out of it over the course of the next day, and he subsequently left Corregidor for Australia.

But what if his staff wasn't as convincing, and MacArthur had elected to stay after all? What would have been the effects on the war in the Pacific? And what sort of reputation would MacArthur have had after the war, either with his survival or demise?

 

[TFSmith121]

The US would have concentrated on

The US would have concentrated on the Central Pacific offensive from 1943 onwards; MacArthur would be about as well-remembered as Wainwright and Hart.

Best,

 

[zert]

Well if he stays and gets himself bumped off, the Australuans will be given much more credit for their contributions. Once New Guinea is contained and Rabaul neutralized, then the drive for the Marianas is a go.

 

[Namayan]

The only feasible way for MacArthur to survive is to do guerrilla warfare much like how the locals did in OTL. No way you are going to win in 1942 or 1943 with the current resources fighting conventionally.

However, MacArthur was a high value target that the Japanese that would want captured. He was after all the USAFFE chief and also the Field Marshal/or Chief of the Philippine Armed forces.

So he is a double figure head/leader. If he did stay, he would be in command of the guerrilla warfare and the conventional warfare in the Philippines. Which is both good and bad. It means he can better coordinate both fronts. Bad, since his capture would mean the end of any resistance in the islands.

In a strategic and tactical sense, it was better for him to leave the Philippines.

 

[Simon]

IIRC one of the reasons that he was ordered to leave was that he had knowledge of the US having broken a number of the Japanese codes and that the Americans were effectively reading their mail. As such a senior figure he could be treated fairly well, at least for the Japanese in WW2, but all it takes is one slip-up or being groggy due to injury/sickness or medical treatment and that's going to throw a rather large spanner in the works.