WI: Gen. Albert Sydney Johnson Survives Shiloh

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Albert Sydney Johnson was widely regarded as the most gifted Confederate commander in the early years of the Civil War before his Virginia counterpart, Robert E. Lee, made his own mark on history. Let's suppose that he wasn't shot (likely by his own men by accident) at the Battle of Shiloh, and continues to command the western Confederate armies (with Nathan Bedford Forrest at his side) for the duration of the war while Lee commands the Army of Northern Virginia in the east. How differently would the war have turned out had Johnson survived?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
A. S. Johnston had a good reputation, but it wasn't really based on much. His strategic decisions leading up to Shiloh were usually wrong. He obsessed about the defense of Bowling Green, ignoring Union threats on his western and eastern flanks. When he decided (too late) to send reinforcements to Fort Donelson, he sent a force too small to save the fort yet too large for him to afford to lose; it also never occured to him to go there himself and take personal command. And when the fort fell, he clearly panicked, made no attempt to defend Nashville, and abandoned vast amounts of supplies that the Confederates couldn't afford to lose.

He displayed a frustrating lack of attention to detail, assuming that his subordinates were always doing what they had been told to do and not keeping a close eye on them. He assumed, for example, that both Fort Henry and Fort Donelson were complete and ready, when in fact neither was in a state fit for proper defense.

It's impossible to say what A. S. Johnston might have achieved had he survived Shiloh. He may have come into his own, learned from his mistakes, and been a good commander. But truthfully, his record up to Shiloh is not encouraging.
 
Well, the first obvious effect would be Shiloh itself. If A.S. Johnson doesn't get shot, he remains in command for the full battle and not Beauegard. An improvement all alone right there.

It's very likely he doesn't continue the assault on the Hornet's nest as Beauegard did. Johnson being the professional soldier he was may well have won the day with a flanking attack on April 6th, well before Buell could arrive with reinforcements.

Even if he doesn't win the day, he certainly would have performed better on the 7th, realizing Grant had indeed been reinforced.

You could make arguements about what else would happen after Shiloh, though all things being equal, Albert Sidney Johnson was a decisive commander in a theater without too many decisive commanders.

It's also likely he'd realize Joe Johnson would be his best #2 man, and overide Davis' hatred of the man enough to keep him in command of one of the West's armies throughout the war.

I also think it's quite likely he'd assume personal command of the defense of the Mississippi. So put Joe Johnson in command of the Army of Tennessee, and A.S. Johnson in command of the Mississippi Army and you'd have a very effective duo there to oppose Grant and Rosecrans.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Albert Sidney Johnson was a decisive commander in a theater without too many decisive commanders.

I disagree. His performance leading up to the Battle of Shiloh was characterized by confusion, mismanagement, and (after the fall of Fort Donelson) outright panic.
 
Well, obviously, Lee doesn't become prominent as a commander until later, possibly mid-1863 or so. This could have large impacts on the later campaigns of 1862-63, since I'm going to assume that Johnson was nowhere near as good as Lee. The Confederacy would probably have lost several of Lee's OTL victories, and it only takes one decisive defeat of the ANV for Richmond to fall. When Richmond falls, the Confederacy essentially falls as well.
 
Well, obviously, Lee doesn't become prominent as a commander until later, possibly mid-1863 or so. This could have large impacts on the later campaigns of 1862-63, since I'm going to assume that Johnson was nowhere near as good as Lee. The Confederacy would probably have lost several of Lee's OTL victories, and it only takes one decisive defeat of the ANV for Richmond to fall. When Richmond falls, the Confederacy essentially falls as well.

A.S. Johnston's death had little to do with Joe Johnston's wounding.

Albert Sidney Johnston commanded the Department of the West and had overall control over all Confederates in Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Arkansas and Missouri. He also created and was the first commander of the Army of Mississippi. He fought in only one major battle, Shiloh, where he was wounded and died.

Joseph E. Johnston commanded, in 1862, the Confederate Army of the Potomac and fought a good defensive campaign in the James Peninsular against the numerically superior Union Army of the Potomac under George B. McClellan until attempting to take the offensive at Seven Pines/Fair Oaks where he fell wounded. He recovered from his wounds and went on to command the Department of the West (overall commander of all Confederates in Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia), all forces in Mississippi during the later half of the Vicksburg Campaign, the Army of Tennessee and later all forces in South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. He fought the first major battle of the war and the last major battle of the war.

So even if A.S. Johnston lived Lee would still get command as OTL when Joe Johnston falls wounded.

And both spelt their name J-O-H-N-S-T-O-N not J-O-H-N-S-O-N.
 
Not necessarily. You would have two months for the butterfly effect to work its magic and change the course of events back east.

There is no logical reason why Lee's promotion to commander of A.N.V. in June 1862 would be butterflied away. Events in one theater rarely had an effect on events in the other.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
There is no logical reason why Lee's promotion to commander of A.N.V. in June 1862 would be butterflied away. Events in one theater rarely had an effect on events in the other.

[In Darth Vader voice] You underestimate the power of the butterfly effect!

[In regular voice] If A. S. Johnston isn't killed, he will continue breathing. His exhalations will create infintisimally tiny alternations in the airflow and temperature of the few square feet that surround him as he walks around. The very act of his walking will cause the surrounding air to flow in different directions than it did IOTL.

These tiny alternations will, in turn, cause additional alternations, which will continue to build on one another until truly significant changes take place that eventually cascade throughout North America and eventually the world. And this is not even taking into consideration the changes in airflow and temperature caused by other people on account of A. S. Johnston ordered them about, which would be completely different than they were IOTL.

In this scenario, you have two entire months for for the butterfly effect to spill over into Virginia. All you need is a slightly different airflow pattern to cause a single bullet to avoid hitting Joe Johnston.

The survival of A. S. Johnston would have more direct effects anyway. Suppose President Davis lags behind in Richmond for a few minutes on any given day to read a telegram sent to him from A. S. Johnston, thus delaying for a few minutes a later meeting with Joe Johnston, which in turns causes Joe Johnston to be in a different place than he would have been IOTL, thus causing the bullet to miss him.

This is not to say that butterflies WOULD have prevented Lee from taking command of the AoNV, only that they COULD have done so. I, for one, never underestimate the power of butterflies.
 
[In Darth Vader voice] You underestimate the power of the butterfly effect!

[In regular voice] If A. S. Johnston isn't killed, he will continue breathing. His exhalations will create infintisimally tiny alternations in the airflow and temperature of the few square feet that surround him as he walks around. The very act of his walking will cause the surrounding air to flow in different directions than it did IOTL.

These tiny alternations will, in turn, cause additional alternations, which will continue to build on one another until truly significant changes take place that eventually cascade throughout North America and eventually the world. And this is not even taking into consideration the changes in airflow and temperature caused by other people on account of A. S. Johnston ordered them about, which would be completely different than they were IOTL.

In this scenario, you have two entire months for for the butterfly effect to spill over into Virginia. All you need is a slightly different airflow pattern to cause a single bullet to avoid hitting Joe Johnston.

This is, quite possibly, the most ludicrous thing I've ever read. I never had high opinions of the "butterfly effect" before. Now I have to say I find the whole concept laughable.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
This is, quite possibly, the most ludicrous thing I've ever read. I never had high opinions of the "butterfly effect" before. Now I have to say I find the whole concept laughable.

That's odd, since your linked TL about Lee being killed in West Virginia seems dependent on something that could have easily been butterflied away by, say, a butterfly flapping its wings in China a month before.
 
Tolstoy is a FRAUD! i think...

It's useless engaging in a back and forth over butterfly effects. There are some basic routes you can follow: 1) Butterflies rule the world:rolleyes: (Anaxagoras) 2) Butterflies SOMETIMES rule the world :p (robertp6165) 3) Environmental forces represent an irresistable force in history that cannot be substantially altered (Tolstoy) :D 4) Given enough TIME, and butterflies CAN alter events, but the HUMAN element cannot be ignored (usertron2020) :cool:.

PS Whatever else, Jeff Davis will NOT be able to get through the ACW without firing Joe Johnston AND P.T.G. Beauregard at least ONCE.:( It's the old Scorpion and the Frog thing. He just can't help himself.:D THAT'S an example of Tolstoyan history, butterflies be damned. And I don't even believe in Tolstoy's theories.:(:p
 

pnyckqx

Banned
The survival of A. S. Johnston would have more direct effects anyway. Suppose President Davis lags behind in Richmond for a few minutes on any given day to read a telegram sent to him from A. S. Johnston, thus delaying for a few minutes a later meeting with Joe Johnston, which in turns causes Joe Johnston to be in a different place than he would have been IOTL, thus causing the bullet to miss him.

This is not to say that butterflies WOULD have prevented Lee from taking command of the AoNV, only that they COULD have done so. I, for one, never underestimate the power of butterflies.
That butterfly dies in the chrysalis. In fact, J. E. Johnston wasn't at his HQ for the meeting with Davis. He was forced by events of the battle of Fair Oaks (Seven Pines) to try and straighten out a mess between his commanders. The mess is at least partially his own fault because of the ambiguity of his deployment orders.

Davis did arrive later after Johnston had been wounded.

The situation is somewhat urgent. Johnston's deputy, G.W. Smith has not been kept 'in the loop', and has no idea of Johnston's plans. He is simply not capable of command of the army. Davis needs a capable commander right-the-hell-now! A. S. Johnston is way over in Kentucky, and the Army of Northern Virginia is in the middle of a battle. Lee is the best general that Davis has immediately available.

A secondary advantage for Lee is that he and J. E. Johnston are close, and have been friends for many years. He has a good idea of Johnston's tactical intentions, and how the man thinks. In all respects, Lee is the best man for the job, and the Confederacy is better off having A. S. Johnston kept in the command he would hold at the time, where he is familiar with the situation and enemy deployments.

That butterfly just ain't gonna get off the ground.
 
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