WI: Gavrilo Prince failed to assassinate Franz Ferdinand?

What would the consequences be if the driver did not take the wrong turn that gave Princep the opportunity to kill the Arch-Duke? Would the Great War be averted and thus most of 20th century history butterflies out of existence?
 
But the attempt with a bomb still happens?

Many in A-H were itching for a war with Serbia, why wouldn't they seize this opportunity to get one? There would still be an investigation into who threw the bomb that almost killed the archduke.
 
But the attempt with a bomb still happens?

Many in A-H were itching for a war with Serbia, why wouldn't they seize this opportunity to get one? There would still be an investigation into who threw the bomb that almost killed the archduke.

The problem with this Scenario is that FF is clearly seeing that the Monarchy can only lose in a war, even if it wins ...

There will be an Investigation, but the Investigation will not yield a casus belli.
 
There will be an Investigation, but the Investigation will not yield a casus belli.

Financing and organizing an attempt on the life of the heir-apparent of A-H in order to foment instability by intelligence agency of Kingdom of Serbia would not be a casus belli? I mean for the hard-line members of A-H government?
 
Financing and organizing an attempt on the life of the heir-apparent of A-H in order to foment instability by intelligence agency of Kingdom of Serbia would not be a casus belli? I mean for the hard-line members of A-H government?
I think Franz Ferdinand still being alive may make Emperor Franz Joseph not go to war, as Franz Ferdinand was usually the one who convinced Franz Joseph against war when Conrad suggested it... 27 times in the year leading up to WWI.
 
Financing and organizing an attempt on the life of the heir-apparent of A-H in order to foment instability by intelligence agency of Kingdom of Serbia would not be a casus belli? I mean for the hard-line members of A-H government?

Who finances the attempt - the government or Rouge elements - makes a huge difference.

If Austria can "prove" that the Serbian government is not able to maintain public order it may get even a go for a Police Action... but I doubt that...
 
What would the consequences be if the driver did not take the wrong turn that gave Princep the opportunity to kill the Arch-Duke? Would the Great War be averted and thus most of 20th century history butterflies out of existence?

Franz Ferdinand was categorically opposed to war, as he viewed it as unwinnable (as conflict with Serbia would draw in Russia, a fight which he didn't believe Austria could win). Furthermore, he believed that conflict would be the death knell of the monarchy and that it should turn inward to fix its own issues before trying anything.

So, the war certainly doesn't start over the assassination attempt. Austria might make noise, Serbia might have to make concessions (if they wind up linked to Sarajevo), but war is averted for the time being.

Does this avoid war entirely? It's hard to say. The cut off date is certainly 1917, a point at which Germany believes it can no longer fight Russia (while, thanks to hindsight, we know that belief to be false, it nevertheless shaped strategic thinking at the time). If any crises can be avoided to that point, Germany is unlikely to pursue war as an option, which greatly reduces changes of a war happening. The obvious crisis is the Ausgleich, which could very well see Franz Ferdinand on the throne ... and that's a disaster waiting to happen. If things spin out of control and the monarchy collapses into civil war (unlikely, IMO, but a possibility), you could see interventions by various powers (for or against Vienna, mostly against Vienna).
 

trajen777

Banned
No War in the short therm

- Britain "alliance" ends with the Entente / Germany and England were pulling together in that Germany had given up the BB race -- and England was becoming more worried about Russia.
- Perhaps an understanding with England and Germany -- Japan alliance -- italy neutral -- and a stronger AH
 
Probably no war (at least not in 1914). IIRC Franz Ferdinand supported a war proposal only once, and opposed it numerous times.
 
Top