WI Gavrilio Princip was caught before he shot down Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand?

Hey, it's me again, and I just wondered this; I had just a discussion with my mother, and I asked her this. What If Gavrilio Princip was caught before he shot down Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand?

What would the implications to the world be if he was caught by a persistent officer? Would World War 1 be prevented?

Give me your thoughts.
 
Ferdinand would be alive so the dominant thinking in Vienna would not shift to the war party. A crime that fails is never taken as seriously as one that succeeds. There will be no war. Well, at least in 1914.
 
interogate...

Questioning him should reveal how big the conspiracy was--which leads to further arrests and/or demands. Having some prisoners answering questions can lead to demands for handing over conspirators--which could still spiral out of control into war...or not.
 
I think the general consensus is that war in Europe and the Balkans was inevitable at some point, and the shooting of the Archduke was simply a small spark in what was a tinderbox. Whilst the First World War would not have started in 1914, I would say with a degree of certainty that a "world war", or at least a Europe wide war, is inevitable.
 
If Princip is captured and talks, then demands to Serbia are not based on "prejudice" but are relatively legitimate. In particular Russia can't back up Serbia if it is "proven" (not just alleged) that at least some parts of the government were involved in this plot. Also if FF not killed or even shot, then likely the AH demands on Serbia will be more focussed. Absent Russia backing Serbia the spiral that led to WWI at that time does not happen. The rivalries are still there, the Ottoman Empire is still the "sick old man of Europe" etc, so some sort of conflict occurring 1915-1925 is not unlikely.

IMHO a different "WWI" may see different players to some extent. If Germany realizes that the Schlieffen Plan is both unworkable, and will guarantee the UK coming in against them you could see them not attacking through Belgium. Absent the German attack on Belgium, very likely the UK does not get involved or certainly not right away - if Germany, as the attack develops, simply asks for transit rights through Belgium to parts of France they have occupied the Belgians may very well grant it, and this does not bring the UK in.

If the UK does not join in, then expect Italy to either stay with the Central Powers or remain neutral (perhaps leaning CP). Removal of the Italian Front makes life easier for AH - though not "better".

Lastly, a conflict between Germany/AH & Russia/France/Serbia will see the USA absolutely neutral, and selling to both sides (no British blockade & France can't really mount one) and in that case IMHO Germany will be very careful with submarine warfare not to piss off the USA. Also, US loans to France will not be on the scale as OTL as absent the UK French credit not so good, and there will be potentially more loans to Germany....

Lots of butterflies
 
What do you mean a "persistent officer"? I don't think anyone knew of Princip's existence until the moment he leaned in and wasted the royal couple.

But to address the topic, I think the hard-liners in the Emperor's government will still press for war. The destruction of Serbia was hardly an original thought in July 1914.
 
I agree, the war is going to happen. Too many nations were looking for a excuse.

Austria needed to suppress the restive Slavic ethnics.
Germany needed to beat down the Russians before they could modernize.
France wanted Alsace and Lorraine back.
The U.K. wanted to trim back the German navy.
Russia wanted to strengthen its ties to the Balkan Slavs.

The only question is what would be the excuse.
 
Let's assume for discussion purposes that somebody maybe had a bit too much to drink one evening at a Sarajevo tavern and mouthed off a bit much--or there was some other leak. With a conspiracy having a large number of people, the likelihood of a leak goes up really fast as the number of those involved increases.

Anyhow: the Habsburg authorities get wind of this and do some snooping that nets them one or more of the conspirators (doesn't have to be Princip himself; he simply turned out to be the last hope of the conspiracy and everything came together for him). The authorities may not get anything to work with if they use the more grim methods of interrogation; perhaps they offer immunity and maybe even a ticket out of the country for turning state's evidence. But by fair means or foul, they get enough information to round up the conspirators before anything happens.

Now you have not perpetrators but conspirators. That's marginal at best for a casus belli even for the most fanatic types. If the fanatics are able to force an ultimatum, it may well stay a local/limited conflict: Russia would not want to side with a nation that plots regicide (that hits awfully close to home); Germany won't have a reason to join in with Russia on the sidelines; if Germany sits out, so does France...etc. In effect, you're looking at what amounts to a third Balkan war but with different players.

A more general conflict would be postponed until "some damned foolish thing in the Balkans" becomes reality instead of being stopped while still a conspiracy. Not possible to predict what that might be; guessing it might come about 1920 or so.
 
What do you mean a "persistent officer"? I don't think anyone knew of Princip's existence until the moment he leaned in and wasted the royal couple.

But to address the topic, I think the hard-liners in the Emperor's government will still press for war. The destruction of Serbia was hardly an original thought in July 1914.

With 'persistent officer' I mean, an officer who saw Princip when he went down for a sandwich, and before he could have the chance to shoot the Arch Duke and his wife when they board the car.
 
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