What if Gary Johnson had stayed out of the 2012 race, both in the republican primary and as the libertarian candidate in the general election? Who would the libertarians nominate instead? How big of an impact would this have on the election?
The only case that I know of that the Libertarian candidate actually made a difference in a race at the Federal level was the Georgia Senate race in 2008. The Libertarian candidate picked up 3.4% of the total votes, keeping either of the big two candidates from picking up the 50.1% required by state law and throwing the election into a run off.
Torqumada
One 2012, no effect. On 2016, maybe if Johnson runs in this Republican field.
In that case, how well would Johnson be doing in the polls?
If a saturated field like OTL, I'd say he'd be fighting to stay at 1%. If not, probably the same numbers he had when he ran as a Republican IOTL (1-2%).
I think he would probably take many votes away from Rand Paul.
According to the latest polls, Rand Paul does not have "many" votes for Johnson or anyone else to take away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio..._Republican_Party_2016_presidential_primaries