WI: Gang of Four avoids its overthrow?

So what would have taken for the 1976 coup-something against the Gang of Four? And what would the effects of a continuing rule by the four have on China and the world?
 
In this scenario, did Nixon still go to China in 1972?

I'm not sufficiently versed in the politics of the PRC to know what the Gang thought about the rapprochment(according to Nixon's memoirs, Madame Mao bluntly asked him "Why did you wait so long to come to China?", which could be interpreted in a number of ways).

If the rapprochment still happens, but the Gang is against it, they might try to thwart any further warming of ties after they come to power in the ATL 1976. Which might mean no establishment of diplomatic relations under Carter in 1979.

If the rapprochment still happens and the Gang supports it, things will probably progress roughly the same as they did OTL, though if they keep the internal craziness cranked up to full blast, that might make it more difficult to establish economic relations with the outside world. So, China is not the global sweatshop, big holder of western debt etc, that we know in OTL.

Overall, I can't see even the Gang taking a pass of rapprochment, especially if they're buying into the Theory Of Three Worlds and its accompanying anti-Soviet alignment(though I can't recall exactly what they thought of that). Most likely sceanrio: China under the post-76 Gang becomes something like OTL Iran under the Ayatollahs. Not above putting out a contract on the odd western writer here and there, but still basically striving to be a functioning member of the global community.
 
The Gang will not pursue rapprochement. Jiang Qing was in many ways, far more radical, egotistic and ideologically driven than Mao was. And that's saying something. China will at worst become a xenophobic, isolationist hermit kingdom much like North Korea (which is bound to fall apart at some point, given it’s size and Jiang Qing’s lack of an heir); or at best have the Gang be overthrown in a bloodless coup once Jiang Qing dies/ is disposed by saner influences in the party.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
So what would have taken for the 1976 coup-something against the Gang of Four? And what would the effects of a continuing rule by the four have on China and the world?
It's actually not going to be as bad as people generally think it's going to be

The gang of four by themselves had very little power: and this was intentional, they were always Mao's attack dogs. Without Mao's personal backing they had no powerbase and everybody in the party and the army hated them.

Without an outright coup against them they either have to mount a coup themselves, or the long run prospect for them is for them to be marginalized within the Chinese political system. The old guard is way way too strong after mao's death.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The gang of four was never in charge btw, and Mao never intended them to be in charge because he knew that they were idiots and bad at managing the country

The plan was always to have the party old guard (and maybe Deng) to manage the country and for the gang to secure his ideological legacy and make sure that the cultural revolution is never talked about as a mistake. While Hua Guofeng and his people serve as mediators between the radicals and the old guard.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The Gang will not pursue rapprochement. Jiang Qing was in many ways, far more radical, egotistic and ideologically driven than Mao was. And that's saying something. China will at worst become a xenophobic, isolationist hermit kingdom much like North Korea (which is bound to fall apart at some point, given it’s size and Jiang Qing’s lack of an heir); or at best have the Gang be overthrown in a bloodless coup once Jiang Qing dies/ is disposed by saner influences in the party.
Jiang Qing is not gonna be in charge if the gang takes power, it's going to be Wang Hongwan
 
The gang of four was never in charge btw, and Mao never intended them to be in charge because he knew that they were idiots and bad at managing the country

The plan was always to have the party old guard (and maybe Deng) to manage the country and for the gang to secure his ideological legacy and make sure that the cultural revolution is never talked about as a mistake. While Hua Guofeng and his people serve as mediators between the radicals and the old guard.
I agree with most of that, but are you sure Mao would allow Deng to take power in any way? Deng and Liu Shaoqi after all opposed Mao in the Cultural Revolution.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I agree with most of that, but are you sure Mao would allow Deng to take power in any way? Deng and Liu Shaoqi after all opposed Mao in the Cultural Revolution.
Deng -didn't- oppose Mao during the cultural revolution because he was purged very, very early on, no he wouldn't have wanted Deng in position as overall leader of the country. But there were more alternatives than Deng and the GoF too
 
If the Chinese economy don't pull the economic reforms, what happens to the global economy when the Japanese bubble bursts?
 
First of all, keeping the Gang was not to give all powers to zealots. Mao was very careful in keeping a balance between the Old Guards and the newly-risen revolutionaries. The Gang somehow had to respect this arrangement if they wanted to stay in power.

Keeping the Gang of Four nevertheless means that the system of militias, revolutionary committees, and red guards had to be kept in place, they would be used against a populace increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo, there would eventually be some kind of compromise. The downcast and victims of the Cultural Revolution had to continue to be kept on their knees, so were the banished urban youth.

The Gang itself had a conservative attitude on economics, both Wang and Yao were known to be very cautious not to repeat the disaster of the Great Leap Forward. Half-hearted political campaigns may be raised against the countrysides' trends in village industry and de-collectivization in farming, but the government's own policies would be much milder than Mao's. Entrepreneurs would spring up and got a crackdown.

The Old Guards might try to learn from the Eastern European models, or even to reproach the Soviet Union. When it comes to economics. State oriented trade with Japan and the West may give the government enough money to purchase some machines from the advanced industries, it would raise the economy a bit, but not to the extent they had IOTL.

The PLA might be allowed to do business and get rich through patronage to the new illegal private industry and through smuggling, the Gang of Four would be forced to allow this by appeaseing them to prevent something like the OTL coup.

It's more like OTL Cuba than North Korea. They would be overthrown anyway in the late 1980s.
 
So the best way to keep China being Maoist to an extent without going full totalitarian post-1976 is to have Wang Hongwan be the leader of China?
 

RousseauX

Donor
So the best way to keep China being Maoist to an extent without going full totalitarian post-1976 is to have Wang Hongwan be the leader of China?
Either that or something like Lin Biao surviving and is seriously ill by 1976 so he becomes leader of China but is unable to exercise much control.

Someone actually wrote a really good TL (China after Mao: a cat of a different color) in which Wang does become the leader of China, but end up losing control over the failure of the Sino-Vietnamese war

prolonged radicalism after 1976 is probably not gonna happen: the main reason being that both the party and society at large was tired of the constant cycles of purge and chaos that the cultural revolution represented. Even those who rose on the back of the CR (i.e Hua Guofang) didn't want to end up being purged in the next cycle. As long as a leader like Mao is alive and (somewhat) well the CR could continue at a lower pace. But it was gonna end at some point after he dies, whatever the gang of four does.
 
Either that or something like Lin Biao surviving and is seriously ill by 1976 so he becomes leader of China but is unable to exercise much control.

Someone actually wrote a really good TL (China after Mao: a cat of a different color) in which Wang does become the leader of China, but end up losing control over the failure of the Sino-Vietnamese war

prolonged radicalism after 1976 is probably not gonna happen: the main reason being that both the party and society at large was tired of the constant cycles of purge and chaos that the cultural revolution represented. Even those who rose on the back of the CR (i.e Hua Guofang) didn't want to end up being purged in the next cycle. As long as a leader like Mao is alive and (somewhat) well the CR could continue at a lower pace. But it was gonna end at some point after he dies, whatever the gang of four does.
I read China After Mao and it's a pretty good TL though it doesn't seem finished as of now; and I too like to try out something where China doesn't get Deng but I can't seem to find much info about the otherthrow of the Gang of Four.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I read China After Mao and it's a pretty good TL though it doesn't seem finished as of now; and I too like to try out something where China doesn't get Deng but I can't seem to find much info about the otherthrow of the Gang of Four.
Read the last part of Mao's last revolution by Michael Schoenhals and Roderick MacFarquhar, it goes into quite a bit of detail
 

RousseauX

Donor
Thanks, though I'm referring to the POD regarding China After Mao or does that book count?
Yes, the POD in China after Mao basically amounted to Jiang Qing does not go to the late night politburo meeting in which the GoF got arrested, I think the book goes into as much detail into the immediate power plays and moves as we are going to know at the moment.
 
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