WI: Gabrielle d'Estrées does not die in 1599?

Before King Henry IV of France, first French monarch of the Bourbon dynasty, divorced his first wife, Margaret of Valois, he considered replacing her with his mistress, lover and confidante, Gabrielle d'Estrées, and legitimizing the children he had already had with her - two sons (Cesar, b. 1594, and Alexandre, b. 1598) and a daughter (Catherine Henriette, b. 1596). His councillors strongly opposed the idea, but Henry went ahead, petitioning Pope Clement VIII for a annulment and permission to remarry and giving Gabrielle his coronation ring.

However, the matter was "solved" on April 9th 1599 when Gabrielle fell ill with eclampsia, gave birth to a stillborn son and died the next day. There were rumours that she had been poisoned. Henry went on to marry Maria de Medici, mainly for her dowry, but what if Gabrielle hadn't died and Henry had managed to go through with his plan to marry her? I'd imagine Gabrielle and her children could have ended up being seen in a similar light as Anne Boleyn and Elizabeth I of England, especially if Cesar or Alexandre become king. Maybe this could lead to Henry being assassinated earlier, or even deposed.

Any thoughts?
 
Henri IV of France didn't just consider it, it was weeks away from happening. The plans for her wedding were then moved back so that the King could marry Marie de Medici. ITL, if she survives, even if she has a stillborn child, she's now going to be Queen of France. Which actually might be better for the King of France than his OTL wife. Gabrielle d'Estrées might have been the best diplomat he had, during the time that she was alive and by his side. As Queen of France, she'll be mildly scandalous, but she'll probably be accepted pretty easily by the elite, as that was what her work was for the last year or two of her life. Plus, considering she was only 26, she'll probably give Henri a few more children, who will probably end up, at least for some of them, marry into the French nobility.

Cesar, as the Dauphin, probably gets a Princess, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lower Princess (think Lorraine or an Italian noblewoman) rather than a higher one (Spain, Austria ect.). He was born out of wedlock, and even if the Pope retroactively legitimizes him, it's gonna be hard to find a royal family to take him. The younger son will probably marry a Princess of Guise, while the Princess might get lucky and end up in Spain, but most likely that honour goes to a younger Princess, if they happen, and she ends up staying in France.
 
Henri IV of France didn't just consider it, it was weeks away from happening. The plans for her wedding were then moved back so that the King could marry Marie de Medici. ITL, if she survives, even if she has a stillborn child, she's now going to be Queen of France. Which actually might be better for the King of France than his OTL wife. Gabrielle d'Estrées might have been the best diplomat he had, during the time that she was alive and by his side. As Queen of France, she'll be mildly scandalous, but she'll probably be accepted pretty easily by the elite, as that was what her work was for the last year or two of her life. Plus, considering she was only 26, she'll probably give Henri a few more children, who will probably end up, at least for some of them, marry into the French nobility.

César, as the Dauphin, probably gets a Princess, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lower Princess (think Lorraine or an Italian noblewoman) rather than a higher one (Spain, Austria ect.). He was born out of wedlock, and even if the Pope retroactively legitimizes him, it's gonna be hard to find a royal family to take him. The younger son will probably marry a Princess of Guise, while the Princess might get lucky and end up in Spain, but most likely that honour goes to a younger Princess, if they happen, and she ends up staying in France.

I didn't know it when I made my original post, but César had already been betrothed to Françoise of Lorraine in 1598.

As for Gabrielle's acceptance, I still can't shake the feeling that people might see parallels between her and King Henry IV and King Henry VIII of England and Anne Boleyn, especially since Henry IV used to be a Protestant himself. I could see a revival of Gallicanism or, after Henry IV's death/assassination, a group of nobles rallying around Henry II, Prince of Conde as the "legitimate" heir to the throne against Gabrielle's children.
 
Please don't bump without adding content.

It won't happen again.

Back on topic, it's one thing for Gabrielle and her children to be accepted by the French people and elite, but it's another for them to be accepted by the rest of Christendom. The Spanish and Austrian Hapsburgs may possibly support a Condist revolt againt Henry IV and/or Cesar, if only to weaken France if not actually put the Prince of Conde on the throne.
 
It won't happen again.

Back on topic, it's one thing for Gabrielle and her children to be accepted by the French people and elite, but it's another for them to be accepted by the rest of Christendom. The Spanish and Austrian Hapsburgs may possibly support a Condist revolt againt Henry IV and/or Cesar, if only to weaken France if not actually put the Prince of Conde on the throne.
Henry II of Condé doesn't seem the best candidate to be put forward. He himself was always considered a bastard by Henry IV, and this accusation could surface again. And I'm not sure if his uncle François de Conti would support either.
 
It won't happen again.

Back on topic, it's one thing for Gabrielle and her children to be accepted by the French people and elite, but it's another for them to be accepted by the rest of Christendom. The Spanish and Austrian Hapsburgs may possibly support a Condist revolt againt Henry IV and/or Cesar, if only to weaken France if not actually put the Prince of Conde on the throne.
The key is whether this is accepted by the papacy.
 
The key is whether this is accepted by the papacy.

This is barely five years after Henri's convertion, so would the church really Rick opposing the King? After all, but everyone remembers the last time the Papacy refused to grant a King an annulment and permission to marry his mistress. I can't see a Pope wanting to push an already reluctant Catholic further away from Rome.
 
This is barely five years after Henri's convertion, so would the church really Rick opposing the King? After all, but everyone remembers the last time the Papacy refused to grant a King an annulment and permission to marry his mistress. I can't see a Pope wanting to push an already reluctant Catholic further away from Rome.
They won't stop an annulment,but whether they would legitimize a bastard is an entirely different matter I believe.The papacy seems to rarely do so than annulments even when pressured by kings.
 
They won't stop an annulment,but whether they would legitimize a bastard is an entirely different matter I believe.The papacy seems to rarely do so than annulments even when pressured by kings.

I meant more of refusing permission to marry his mistress. But yeah getting the Papacy to fully legitimize three bastards would be quite difficult. Even the illegitimate royals who ruled in Iberia gained legitimacy after ascending the throne. Though in theory there's nothing stopping Henri IV from legitimizing them himself and getting the Estates-General to declare them the legitimate heirs of the crown. But that would probably cause a civil war down the line. Could make for an interesting TL.
 
The mariage of Henri IV and Gabrielle d'Estrées would actually have proven pretty disastrous and complicated for France. Gabrielle was hated by almost everyone but the Green Galant. The Parisian folk hated her because she was an ennemy of the Guise, whom Paris was always very favorable to. The nobility hated her because she was spending a lot of money. Gabrielle herself was the object of numerous Pamphlets. Marguerite de Valoirs, Henri's first wife, didn't want Gabrielle to replace her because she felt she was below her rank. And Pope Clement VIII probably wouldn't have been happy because he was already planning the marriage of Henri IV to his niece, Maria de Medici. In other words, you would have a very scandalous marriage and Gabrielle would have been a very unpopular queen... And unpopular French queens don't do well: see what happened to Marie Antoinette.

I'm not saying Gabrielle didn't have qualities but the fact remains that no one but Henri IV wanted her to be queen of France. The move would probably have undermined Henri IV's actions to pacify his kingdom and restore its power. The last Religious War had ended in 1594 and Gabrielle died OTL in 1599... I'm not saying we would still get something as violent as a Religious War but fact is that we're left with a Kingdom were tensions still run pretty high and with parts of the nobility that could have risen up against their King for such a move.

Aside from that, there is also the question of France's economical situation at the time. The main reason Henri IV married Maria de Medici was actually because she came with a very advantageous dowry. Hell, Maria even ended with the nickname of La Grosse Banquière (The Fat Bankress) at court. Gabrielle wouldn't bring such a dowry. Now, saying Maria de Medici's dowry solved France's financial problems is probably pushing it but it did help a bit but there might be a few troubles coming from marrying Gabrielle d'Estrées in that regard.
 
Now that I've thought about it, this really could be a cool premise for a TL. Here's a scenario to think about: Gabrielle survives childbirth in 1599. After the annulment arrives (because the Pope isn't in a position to deny the King one at this juncture) Henri marries Gabrielle in say early 1600, scandalizing his nobles and much of Catholic Europe (though Elizabeth I might be privately amused at her former ally's actions). In response, the single Marie de Medici is married off instead to Archduke Matthias, heir presumptive of Emperor Rudolf II. After all, what better way to get back at the French than by allying with the Habsburgs? Plus the only position higher then Queen of France would be Holy Roman Empress. Now depending on who the dowry is payed to (the Emperor or her husband), this could mean an earlier coup against Rudolf by the rest of the dynasty, back financially by the Medici and the papacy. What an earlier reign of Matthias could mean I don't know: if early enough it could change the later course of the Long Turkish war. However, at the least it means that Matthias is very likely to have children and thus denying the ultra-Catholic Archduke Ferdinand the throne.

Now Personally I think a Bohemian revolt was inevitable: the Bohemian Protestants had taken advantage of the Habsburg weakness to get as many concessions as possible, concessions that the dynasty wouldn't allow to remain once they've recovered. But this doesn't mean the thirty years' war would still happen, especially if the Imperialists (being in a better financial position) are able to strike back before the Bohemians offer the throne to Friedrich V. If the Palatinate isn't brought in then the Thirty years' War likely ends at the Bohemian Revolt. Also, with a 1599 POD we could also see a Burgundian Habsburg line develop in Brussels via Albrecht and Infanta Isabel. Hell one could have Allbrecht and Isabel's daughter Anna Maurica survive and marry the son of Matthias, bringing the Netherlands under Vienna's control (assuming Madrid signs off). And this is just what I came up with for the Habsburgs.

On the French side, we have an unstable Kingdom led by a powerful King and an unpopular but skilled consort. Sound familiar anyone? Effectively France would be in the same position as England was in the 1530s. Now this instability could lead Henri and Gabrielle, like Henry and Anne, to take radical steps to fully secure power against the Church and nobility. I can see earlier centralization a la Louis XIV occurring, as well as seizures of various noble fiefs and fortunes. Think the way Henry VIII went after the Duke of Buckingham. Now this could cause further civil war, though more Fronde and less war of religion. Assuming the Royalists win, a civil war would be a good thing: the rebels fiefs, estates and fortunes would be up for grabs and flow directly into the treasury. Depending on how the Church reacts over the marriage and the status of the Royal children born before the marriage, we could see a Gallican Church fully and legally established within France, which was something of a wet dream for the French Kings. Of course this also means France likeluy abdicates any hope of restoring its position in Europe for the time being and any prestigious foreign marriages. Perhaps la Grand Mademoiselle's mother, Marie de Bourrbon, could end up as César's Queen?

One final though. The real chaos in France wouldn't start until Henri IV's death, then we would have the potential of a three-way civil war; between César as the legitimized heir to the throne, the eldest son born to Henri and Gabrielle after their marriage and Henri II de Condé. Or something similar to what happened at Louis X's death in 1314, an Estates-General is called to formally decide the succession.

The mariage of Henri IV and Gabrielle d'Estrées would actually have proven pretty disastrous and complicated for France. Gabrielle was hated by almost everyone but the Green Galant. The Parisian folk hated her because she was an ennemy of the Guise, whom Paris was always very favorable to. The nobility hated her because she was spending a lot of money. Gabrielle herself was the object of numerous Pamphlets. Marguerite de Valoirs, Henri's first wife, didn't want Gabrielle to replace her because she felt she was below her rank. And Pope Clement VIII probably wouldn't have been happy because he was already planning the marriage of Henri IV to his niece, Maria de Medici. In other words, you would have a very scandalous marriage and Gabrielle would have been a very unpopular queen... And unpopular French queens don't do well: see what happened to Marie Antoinette.

I'm not saying Gabrielle didn't have qualities but the fact remains that no one but Henri IV wanted her to be queen of France. The move would probably have undermined Henri IV's actions to pacify his kingdom and restore its power. The last Religious War had ended in 1594 and Gabrielle died OTL in 1599... I'm not saying we would still get something as violent as a Religious War but fact is that we're left with a Kingdom were tensions still run pretty high and with parts of the nobility that could have risen up against their King for such a move.

Aside from that, there is also the question of France's economical situation at the time. The main reason Henri IV married Maria de Medici was actually because she came with a very advantageous dowry. Hell, Maria even ended with the nickname of La Grosse Banquière (The Fat Bankress) at court. Gabrielle wouldn't bring such a dowry. Now, saying Maria de Medici's dowry solved France's financial problems is probably pushing it but it did help a bit but there might be a few troubles coming from marrying Gabrielle d'Estrées in that regard.

So in a way Gabrielle would be France's Wallis Simpson. However, the Marie Antoinette comparison doesn't really fit sense she didn't start out hated by the entire country, as your claiming for Gabrielle. Marie de' Medici was unpopular, as was Catherine de' Medici but they were fairly successful. This isn't the 1700s. As to the unpopularity, Tte moderate nobility are likely to reconcile with the King at some point, though nothing could be done about the Parisians. The rest of your points are addressed above.
 
It makes sense for Maria de Medici to end up in Prague/Vienna/wherever, since she was on a shortlist of Italian candidates to marry Rudolf II OTL. The other candidates included Giulia d'Este and a princess of Savoy (i.e. granddaughter of Felipe II). Rudolf's dithering and Henri's need of money as well as her uncle's influence in Rome where he'd formerly been a cardinal, sort of sealed the deal.
 
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