WI: Fritz Got the Monkey; King Alexandar Lives

[Captain Jack]

So, this has been brought up before but none of those threads have gotten past 2-3 posts. Lets try to make this one better.

So, King Alexandar of Greece was king from 1917 to 1920. He was killed when his dog (named Fritz) got into a fight with a domestic barbary macaque. Alexandar tried to separate the two of them and in doing so was badly bitten by another monkey. He died of septicemia thirteen days later. Alexandar was the second sone of King Constantine and only came to power when France and Britain forced Constantine and Prince George into exile for being too pro-German and crowned Alexandar instead. He had very little power during his reign and essentially rubber stamped papers without reading them. Partly this was because Alexandar believed, and Constantine impressed upon him several times before he left for exile, that he was not the true monarch and only reigned in trust for his father and brother. However, his death destabilized Venizelos' government during the Greco-Turkish war. Furthermore, upon his death a referendum reinstated Constantine as king. Hence Churchill's famous quote "it is perhaps no exaggeration to remark that a quarter of a million persons died of this monkey's bite."

But what if Alexandar had lived? For a POD lets say that Fritz kills or chases off the two monkeys that bit Alexandar IOTL.

 

[Captain Jack]

Bump. Really? No interest at all

 

[Lord Lincoln III]

A monkey?

Interesting. What does a monkey have to do with Alexander? Can someone explain?

 

[RadishPumpkinsForever]

Young Turk movement fails due to better control over Greece by Franco-British. With this the French would have been able too coordinate their intelligence operation in Turkey far better with Greece.

If Ionia was retruned to Greece, WWII might have been different. Assuming a similar chain of events WWII would go off as planned. But with Ionia in the hands of Greece, Turkey would have more of a reason to ally with Germany. The Allies would still win but at a higher cost that might end in Soviets landing on the moon first. All because of a monkey!

 

[Magnum]

I think the million-dollar question is whether a Greece that is led by a stable Venizelos government and which has the full support of the main Entente powers can keep up their momentum and destroy organized Turkish resistance, and if these victories result in a Turkish government willing to let go of Ionia and Thrace?

I know a lot of posters are very passionate about this issue, but we do have a real-live example from OTL history of such a thing occurring in the aftermath of the great war: Hungary. Like the Turks, the Hungarians were unwilling to let such a large part of their country (even areas where they represented an absolute majority) go without a fight. And like the Turks, the Hungarians brought a militant regime to power who promised to resist the break-up of their country. Unlike the their Turkish counterparts, said regime failed to provide significant battlefield victories - the Romanian army curb stomped resistance, occupied Budapest and installed Horthy, who agreed to Trianon.

If TTLs Greeks achieve a similar level of success, it's not outside the realm of possibility that a different Turkish regime begrudgingly accepts the loss of Thrace and Ionia, probably in the hopes of getting it back later.

A Greek success on this level probably entails some pretty nasty ethnic cleansing, with (forced) population transfers, outright massacres, starvation, discrimination and disenfranchisement of the Muslim population etc etc.

Young Turk movement fails due to better control over Greece by Franco-British. With this the French would have been able too coordinate their intelligence operation in Turkey far better with Greece.

If Ionia was retruned to Greece, WWII might have been different. Assuming a similar chain of events WWII would go off as planned. But with Ionia in the hands of Greece, Turkey would have more of a reason to ally with Germany. The Allies would still win but at a higher cost that might end in Soviets landing on the moon first. All because of a monkey!

Events can go so differently that WW2 is far from assured.

What is probable is that, IF a major conflagration takes place, Turkey is -likely- to join the side that promises them their lands back. Whether they succeed depends on the circumstances. However, absent another world war, Greece is pretty much guaranteed to keep the territory to this day if they stay aligned with Britain and don't do anything stupid.

 

[DevonPasty]

I was thinking about this a while back.

If we assume a greater level of Greek success against Turkey (Ataturk dies in WW1 or something similar) then we will see a divided Med.

Italy and Greece will every likely come to blows, especially if Mussolini comes to power. A Greeco-Italian War possibly as Greece tries to nick some of Italy's African colonies or perhaps they just come to blows over controlling the Eastern Med, with GB and France quietly watching in the background to see who will be the better ally.

If the Italian military is in similar poor shape to OTL and is losing so badly it looks for allies, there could be a Med Alliance of Italy, Turkey and Bulgaria(?) as they all want a piece of the growing Greek Kingdom.

I only a vague skim knowledge of it though, I considered doing a TL but I have too much on right now.

 

[lukedalton]

I was thinking about this a while back.

If we assume a greater level of Greek success against Turkey (Ataturk dies in WW1 or something similar) then we will see a divided Med.

Italy and Greece will every likely come to blows, especially if Mussolini comes to power. A Greeco-Italian War possibly as Greece tries to nick some of Italy's African colonies or perhaps they just come to blows over controlling the Eastern Med, with GB and France quietly watching in the background to see who will be the better ally.

If the Italian military is in similar poor shape to OTL and is losing so badly it looks for allies, there could be a Med Alliance of Italy, Turkey and Bulgaria(?) as they all want a piece of the growing Greek Kingdom.

I only a vague skim knowledge of it though, I considered doing a TL but I have too much on right now.

Short answers: absolutely no

Long answer:

For Greece to even consider the idea of grabbing some italian colony the need a navy, their OTL one it's basically target practice for Regia Marina.
An all out war between Italy and Greece, will not really end well for the Greecks...OTL italian invasion abysmall performance was determinated by bad initial planning and having to fight in other front. Italy single fighting Greece is another matter, the disparity of population and industries is too much, plus the ideal window of political instability is already closed as after the ITTL victory in the war against the Turk Benny is in charge...and even if victorious Greece will be a little depleted by that conflict, so here instead of being beaten by Turkey will be defeated by Italy, and if she is the aggressor or is seen as a too aggressive power due to the event in Turkey, is doubtfoul that any great power will come to her aid.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Well, without Constantine returning to power, an argument could be made that the Greek Army would perform better due to the presence of numerous veteran Venizelist officers.

Venizelos isn't going to win the election of November 1920 in the absence of a monkey bite however, not by a long shot. In OTL the Liberal party only won 110/370 seats, they'll do better, but the electoral forces that brought the United Opposition and Gounaris to power are still present in TTL and he's still likely to walk away with a hefty victory in TTL.

NOW the real difference will come after the treaty of London. Perhaps Alexander and the still present Venizelist officers are able to prevent the Greek Offensive of Spring 1921. Instead they continue to prepare and force Ataturk to launch his offensive pre-maturely. A couple of solid victories could lead to the collapse of Ataturk's government and the establishment of a more moderate secular regime willing to compromise with the Greeks.

There will still be huge population transfers, but they'll be much more favorable to the Greeks. Following the war though, Greece is still going to face many of the problems of OTL as the enter the rest of the 20th century.