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okay, so I'm not sure how plausible this is (well, more so then France v. Germany, but besides that).

So yeah, what change would it take to give the French Empire a deicisve victory over the Kingdom of Prussia and its allies?

victory being defined as:
no Prussian candidate on the Spanish Throne
No triumphant entry into Paris, indemnities, or any other concessions provided by the French government OTL
Obviously no declaration of the Kaiserreich in the hall of mirrors
and, if its not ASB (no idea about how possible it is) a French Rhineland

besides that, what would be the effects? the most obvious I can think of are: German Unification is delayed for a few years, no Paris Commune, surviving Napoleonic dynasty with restored prestige and Prussia getting a serious blow to its nationalist credentials.
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