WI: French Victory in Franco-Prussian?

okay, so I'm not sure how plausible this is (well, more so then France v. Germany, but besides that).

So yeah, what change would it take to give the French Empire a deicisve victory over the Kingdom of Prussia and its allies?

victory being defined as:
no Prussian candidate on the Spanish Throne
No triumphant entry into Paris, indemnities, or any other concessions provided by the French government OTL
Obviously no declaration of the Kaiserreich in the hall of mirrors
and, if its not ASB (no idea about how possible it is) a French Rhineland

besides that, what would be the effects? the most obvious I can think of are: German Unification is delayed for a few years, no Paris Commune, surviving Napoleonic dynasty with restored prestige and Prussia getting a serious blow to its nationalist credentials.
 
Earlier death of Nappy III, with Nappy IV young enough that his Ministers do most of the governing without his direct involvement? Sedan was the result of a few rather bad decisions forced on the French Army by Nappy III. The Prussian Army is formidable, but it can be stalled. And Prussia runs out of money fast - it fights fast wars of maneuver under Bismarck because he cannot fund an extended campaign without asking the legislature for an appropriation, and if he does that, they're going to demand he extend more civil rights and franchises at the very least, far more than Bismarck is willing to grant.

I don't see France beating Prussia exactly, but if the Prussian Army runs out of operating funds before Bismarck can reach an agreement with his own legislature (which is NOT going to e a fast process), the Prussians go home.

And this isn't a terrible ending for Prussia - contemporary observers thought it the underdog and were shocked at its performance against France. Here, it wins a few tactical victories against France but in an overall stalemate - people are still forced to admit that Prussia was stronger than they thought. Cold comfort with no indemnity, but hey.
 
-Have the Empress suffer an unfortunate death a week or thereabouts before the outbreak of war- maybe she catches pneumonia, maybe she falls down some stairs, maybe a horse kicks her in the groin. Doesn't matter, as long as she isn't around to do anything during the course of the war.

-Give Nappy III some balls (see first point). He dithered, he lost all will, he knew perfectly well what was going but just didn't seem to care anymore. Find a way to give Nappy some motivation so that he can give some direction to the army, and the French'll probably fare better.

-A victory at Spicheren or Froeschwiller would do wonders for French morale, and possibly prevent the general collapse of the army that resulted in Metz and Sedan.
A few opportunites further back that would've helped the French:

-Have Marshal Niel live a year or two longer, or at least get his reform plans passed before the outbreak of war. Turning the Garde National into something closer to the Landwehr, with trained officers and regular mustering, would've greatly helped solve some of the terrible discipline problems that the French suffered in OTL.

-Fix the damn Intendence system. The French quartermaster corps seemed to suffer from some sort of collective mental deficiency.

-Have Liberalization occur either sooner or later in France. As it was, liberalization was far enough along that Nappy couldn't act like a despot any longer, but it still wasn't enough to run like a British constitutional monarchy. France was in an awkward state of transition when war broke out.
 
So pretty much what you need is a more decisive and, well, militarily intelligent Supreme Commander? Heh, I was always taught that Prussian victory was pretty much inevitable.

Anyway, what I'm mainly wondering about (besides the plausibility of France actually winning) is what would the mid to long-term effects be? With a serious blow to Prussian prestige, how would Germany unify and what would the effects on the states government be?

How would the lack of the Paris Commune effect Anarchist, Socialist, Communist, and so on, ideological development? Would the lack of such a high profile "example" effect their popularity?

Who would succeed Napoleon when he died? As in, would their be a continuing dynasty, or would their be a republican/left-wing/nationalist coup?

Sorry about asking all of this, my knowledge of French Politics is pretty much non-existent with regard to anything happening later then the Commune:eek:
 
-Have the Empress suffer an unfortunate death a week or thereabouts before the outbreak of war- maybe she catches pneumonia, maybe she falls down some stairs, maybe a horse kicks her in the groin. Doesn't matter, as long as she isn't around to do anything during the course of the war.

-Give Nappy III some balls (see first point). He dithered, he lost all will, he knew perfectly well what was going but just didn't seem to care anymore. Find a way to give Nappy some motivation so that he can give some direction to the army, and the French'll probably fare better.

How is having his wife die going to help matters? Wouldn't it just make him depressed?
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
-Have the Empress suffer an unfortunate death a week or thereabouts before the outbreak of war- maybe she catches pneumonia, maybe she falls down some stairs, maybe a horse kicks her in the groin. Doesn't matter, as long as she isn't around to do anything during the course of the war.​



-Give Nappy III some balls (see first point). He dithered, he lost all will, he knew perfectly well what was going but just didn't seem to care anymore. Find a way to give Nappy some motivation so that he can give some direction to the army, and the French'll probably fare better.
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Or another way of Nap getting a Commander he will listen to and take control of the Fighting from the start,

-A victory at Spicheren or Froeschwiller would do wonders for French morale, and possibly prevent the general collapse of the army that resulted in Metz and Sedan.
A few opportunites further back that would've helped the French:

As long as they are close run wins not to make the French too confident and get silly

-Have Marshal Niel live a year or two longer, or at least get his reform plans passed before the outbreak of war. Turning the Garde National into something closer to the Landwehr, with trained officers and regular mustering, would've greatly helped solve some of the terrible discipline problems that the French suffered in OTL.



Him or a Younger more Vibrant Officer that follows his ideas pretty much to the Letter.

The French had several things on there side, especially weapons

But even here they misused and the Prussians had learn from the Austro-Prussian war to use Artillery more aggressively. Things like using the Chassepot Rifle at such Long Range and not waiting till enemy is closer to make fire more accurate, Badly timed charges and coordinating with Artillery.

The French were powerful yet Brittle and played into the Prussians Strengths not there own. Commanders that realize this could have made all the difference, Prussian win was far from ordained

A France on the Rhine would be most interesting.

And a France that did not build 40 years hate towards the Prussians. That was a major point in WW1 wanting a rematch.

And could lead to a France that becomes a Parliamentary Monarchy in just a few years.

If France only just wins and war is longer, I am thinking a Europe that might be a bit more peaceful. ... for a while longer​
 
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And if the French of the Army of the Rhine had exploited their success in the battle of Mars-la-Tour to crush much of the Second Prussian army, and continue their retreat to Verdun and then make a junction with the army of Chalons.
With the First and Second German armies in Lorraine to besiege Metz and other fortified towns, the French army, with about 250,000 men, should be able to battle against the Third and Fourth German armies.
Without a disaster as Sedan, the French Empire could have time to mobilize other 600,000 men. Metz, Strasbourg should resist more time.
 
How would the lack of the Paris Commune effect Anarchist, Socialist, Communist, and so on, ideological development? Would the lack of such a high profile "example" effect their popularity?

From what I know of the First International, the Anarchists were in ascendancy until the Paris Commune. At which point the various "top down" socialists started adopting anarchist rhetoric and claiming the Commune as an example of their program against the anarchists, never-mind that the Paris Commune's constitution was written primarily by an anarchist and the commune itself organized along the lines Proudhon advocated.

So without the Paris Commune, Anarchism is more likely than Marxism to the be primary working class ideology.
 
If the french managed by some feet to defeat the prussians decisively.. that could make bavaria and southern germany possibly move closer to the austrian camp..

but must agree with others.. short of moltke, Karl and Roon being killed in the first few days.. the prussians were just ahead of the curve and executed their plans almost to perfection. best hope for france would be just a stalemate of some sorts.

You could have Steinmetz be more a buffoon in '70 that might help.

You would need the French to be much better organized from the outset.
 
Im not quite sure why everyone views a French victory in the Franco-Prussian war as highly implausable. You would need some big changes in the French military to ensure a victory though. One of these would be a quicker mobilization process (prehaps that could be helped by a better railroad system). If the French do manage to mobilize alot more men, then this could seriously help them in winning the war. Do remember that although Prussian leadership and tactics tended to be better then the French, the French soldiers tended to be better armed, with weapons like the Chassepot Rifle. I also heard somewhere that the French artillery arm was inferior to Prussias. Prehaps that could be improved.
 
As I said, if the french exploit their success in the battle of Mars-la-Tour, the armies of Rhine and Chalons could stop the german advance toward Paris.
Thereafter, the situation in Lorraine could become a stalemate, and the Germans could have to securize their rear from the french guerrilla and take the fortified towns which still resist.
A possibility of action for France would be an offensive in Alsace. The german forces in Alsace are essentially, in august, the 40.000 men of von Werder around Strasbourg. The French could envisage an attack in Baden. This would force the Prussians to divert from Lorraine, some troops to defend the southern states.

Of course, in long-term, a german victory seems inescapable. France could ask British mediation.
For Bismarck, the goal is already reached: unite german states in a war of defense. Even if the total victory could be preferable, the repulse of a french invasion is sufficient to satisfy the goals of Bismarck.
For France, a status quo ante bellum would be in itself a victory, without territorial concessions or indemnities. The negociations should be promoted by Napoleon III who not wanted this war.
 
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