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What if the French forces in Spain, under Marshal Jourdan, had managed to defeat the Anglo-Spanish forces commanded by the Duke of Wellington at the Battle of Vitoria in June 1813?
I'd wager that the French would still want to make king Joseph's possessions in Spain more compact, as holding to all of Spain was already a foregone conclusion by that point. Could a rump Napoleonic Spain linger on? I could see it controlling the Spanish provinces of Navarre, La Rioja (boosting its wine industry), Huesca, Zaragossa, Teruel, Castellón and Valencia, while the French Empire proper keeps all of Catalonia and Guipuzkoa.
How does a better situation in Spain, maybe edging towards a negotiated armistice, affect Napoleon's fortunes in the 1813 German campaign?
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