WI: French victory at Pavia

During the Italian War of 1521-1526, the French Army under Francis I invaded northern Italy to conquer Milan. For a while, the French did well, until the famous Battle of Pavia, which defeated Francis I, and saw his capture by the Imperial/Spanish army. Francis then traded his sons for his release, and his eldest Francois le Dauphin was never the same, and his mother visited Suleiman I of the Ottoman Empire to discuss an alliance against the Spanish.

So, I ask you, WI the French Army had managed to win Pavia and subsequently Milan? What would happen next? How long could Francis hold Milan for?
 

Nikephoros

Banned
One thing to keep in mind is that Spain had the best trained army outside of the Ottoman Empire.

Of course, the numbers are about equal, and France has twice as many guns, and is a solid force itself. Francis had had a victory ten years before over a Swiss Army at Marignano. Sure, he had a numerical advantage, but a large part of that force was his allies, so there would have been friction. But based on the casualties, the French fought better, and their cannon was a decisive factor in that earlier victory
 
I think otherwise there isn't much point with this POD... ;)

If France did win the Italian wars, how much of Italy would be under their rule by the end of it?

Personally, I think they could really only hold onto Milan. Naples is too far to the South, and the Spanish have control over the sea.
 
I think otherwise there isn't much point with this POD... ;)

If France did win the Italian wars, how much of Italy would be under their rule by the end of it?

I'm sort of with Faeelin. France's experience in the war hasn't been terribly productive to this point. A victory of Pavia probably does nothing to preserve Albany's army, so unless Francis marches on naples (which may be extending himself too far), there really isn't much that he can do. War probably winds down with the French in secure control of northern Italy, but Naples remaining Spanish.

What will be very interesting is how the lack of a disaster at Pavia impacts things, and those butterflies will be substantial. For one, no war of the league of Cognac, or at least a very different one. This has a host of ramifications in and of itself (no sack of rome; no anglican church?). We may still see a war parallel with OTL's war of the league of cognac, but under very different circumstances. Another change will be seen in the Franco-Ottoman alliance. IIRC a lot of factors were building up to it, but the immediate catalyst for the relationship was Francis's ruin at Pavia. The different circumstances may at the very least delay this alliance. Does this impact the Ottoman campaigns in central Europe? Quite possibly. A ton of other changes as well; marriage alliances come to mind. I think Charles may still marry Isabella to shore up his coffers, but Francis doesn't seem likely to marry Eleanor of Austria. Probably a lot more impacts, but this is all I've got right now.

I don;t think that Pavia's been brought up here for a while. Worth a go at a timeline, perhaps, although I'll recommend it for somebody better versed in the time period than myself.
 
I wonder what would happen to Savoy if Milan now belongs to the French king. Would it become a French vassal, eventually absorbed into France? Or would they strenghten their alliance with the Habsburgs in order to keep the independence?
 
Some extra questions...

Would the French be able to get more territory then just Milan out of the Treaty of Madrid? Like, do you think they could demand Burgundy from Charles? Or, if the end of the war didn't end immediately after Pavia, would the French invade and conquer Burgundy and Flanders? I don't see any further Italian campaigns though, nor do I see a Franco-Ottoman alliance, unless another war with the Spanish brought disaster for France.
 
I imagine Savoy would probably increase their ties to Spain and the Habsburgs to remain independent. After all, Savoy falling into the French sphere so to speak only occurred in the 17th century after the Religious Wars. Although it might make a suitable road into Italy, the French will be able to pressure them enough that adding them into the kingdom isn't really necessary.

Like Faeelin stated, Milan is probably all the Valois take. French interest in Naples had ended after the first portion of the Italian wars; although Charles VII and Louis XII had some interest in it, their successors did not. In 1557, however, the Duke of Guise did outfit an expedition to aid the Pope, but also to further his families claim to Naples through the Angevins.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I think otherwise there isn't much point with this POD... ;)

Of course there are, because this POD will keep Charles for a longer periode rather making him able to deal with the heretics and the Peasants' War north of the Alps. Leaving the Princes and Knights to deal with them themself, which will weaken Imperial power and the Catholic Church, and strengthen the Princes position, while we see the knights are likely weaken toward the Princes* but strengthen their overlordship over the peasants, whom will be reduced to serfs. Likely we see a stronger Lutheran movement in Swabia and Franconia with the Emperor seen as importent. We will likely see the local ecclessial estates end up under Lutheran Adminstrators.
 
Of course there are, because this POD will keep Charles for a longer periode rather making him able to deal with the heretics and the Peasants' War north of the Alps. Leaving the Princes and Knights to deal with them themself, which will weaken Imperial power and the Catholic Church, and strengthen the Princes position, while we see the knights are likely weaken toward the Princes* but strengthen their overlordship over the peasants, whom will be reduced to serfs. Likely we see a stronger Lutheran movement in Swabia and Franconia with the Emperor seen as importent. We will likely see the local ecclessial estates end up under Lutheran Adminstrators.

Also, without Francis being captured at Pavia, his sons are never sent to a dungeon in Spain in his place. His older son Francis, Duke of Brittany, probably doesn't die so young, and he becomes king instead of Henry II.

Actually, it would be interesting if there is some arrangement to divide Francis I realms, giving Milan to Henry while the Duke of Brittany receives France.
 
Also, without Francis being captured at Pavia, his sons are never sent to a dungeon in Spain in his place. His older son Francis, Duke of Brittany, probably doesn't die so young, and he becomes king instead of Henry II.

Actually, it would be interesting if there is some arrangement to divide Francis I realms, giving Milan to Henry while the Duke of Brittany receives France.

I agree with you, that Francis would probably live; his imprisonment in Spain hurt his health tremendously. Getting rid of that would significantly help his chances of survival.

I could see Francis I doing what you said in the second paragraph, but I doubt it. I'd assume that Francis would give all of it to Francois le dauphin. (I like that better than the Duke of Brittany, and I'm going to keep referring to King Francis as Francis and Prince Francis as Francois le dauphin) Francois le Dauphin was much more trained to become King of France then Henry II, evidenced by Henry's arranged marriage to Catherine de Medicise. Henry may be a Duke of Milan, or a Duke of Bourbon maybe, to punish Charles de Bourbon?
 
Actually, it would be interesting if there is some arrangement to divide Francis I realms, giving Milan to Henry while the Duke of Brittany receives France.

Somehow, I'm doubtful on this point. Nothing concrete, but this doesn't really feel like the modus operandi of the french kings, and I can't see them dividing their new conquests from France proper, especially since Francis himself is probably going to fight at least one more Italian or Italian-related war during his reign, and the French are presumably going to be pursuing further expansion in that region.

Henry may be placed in Milan in some capacity or other, but I would be shocked if Lombardy becomes anything other than part of France.

One wonders what becomes of the Papacy ITTL. No sack of Rome, a presumably more independent Pope (one who may be casting wary glances at the French), and where does this leave us?
 
Somehow, I'm doubtful on this point. Nothing concrete, but this doesn't really feel like the modus operandi of the french kings, and I can't see them dividing their new conquests from France proper, especially since Francis himself is probably going to fight at least one more Italian or Italian-related war during his reign, and the French are presumably going to be pursuing further expansion in that region.

Henry may be placed in Milan in some capacity or other, but I would be shocked if Lombardy becomes anything other than part of France.

One wonders what becomes of the Papacy ITTL. No sack of Rome, a presumably more independent Pope (one who may be casting wary glances at the French), and where does this leave us?

Agreed with first 2 paragraphs, as I said earlier.

Maybe the Pope stays allied with the Spanish and English against the French, with France looking very suspicious to the Pope.

This probably would change though if Francis was smart enough to have Henry marry Catherine.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Somehow, I'm doubtful on this point. Nothing concrete, but this doesn't really feel like the modus operandi of the french kings, and I can't see them dividing their new conquests from France proper, especially since Francis himself is probably going to fight at least one more Italian or Italian-related war during his reign, and the French are presumably going to be pursuing further expansion in that region.

Henry may be placed in Milan in some capacity or other, but I would be shocked if Lombardy becomes anything other than part of France.

One wonders what becomes of the Papacy ITTL. No sack of Rome, a presumably more independent Pope (one who may be casting wary glances at the French), and where does this leave us?

With a weaker or later Counter Reformation, which are going to weaken the Catholic Church even more. Through without Pope under theb Habsburg thumb, we may see him grant Henry his annulment, so we may see Englang staying Catholic.
 
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