This is a tough one. Personally I think that, without the Revolutionary war, the French revolution becomes much less likely. Remember that, while French finances were in a bad place before the 1777, it was their participation in the conflict and funding of the Americans that destroyed them. France spent around 1.3 BILLION livres in debt during the war, thanks to supplying the Americans with money, troops, weapons, uniforms and other matérial, and that's not counting how much was spend on their direct war with the British outside of North America. So without all that money going to the Americans, French finances are more stable and could recover. After all, its not the first time France has been in a terrible economic situation (see the early reign of Louis XV) and its not the first time its recovered (again see early reign of Louis XV).
So I'd argue no American Revolutionary war = no French revolution. Or at least a very delayed one or very different from what we saw OTL.