WI: French press Saar Offensive

[Alratan]

As far as German expulsion goes - IMHO it is a sad fact, that Polish Germans will have to go, officially or not. France and Britain might not be happy about it, but we're talking about Polish citizens here, so it is an internal affair of Poland. And even if there is no official expulsion, Poles will make like of Germans in Poland extremely unpleasant, with Polish authorities looking the other way.
Poles might propose a population swap (German Poles for Polish Germans) and I think western powers might go for it.

The problem the Polish have is that as they are occupied by the Germans that they have zero negotiating power, save what scraps the French (and to some extent the British) choose to throw them. Throughout the '30s, and particularly after their complicity in the dismemberment of Czechesolvakia, the Polish government was not popular in the West.

I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing any majority ethic German territories being handed to the Poles from Germany,save maybe Danzig - the Western Allies don't hate the Germans enough in 1940. Thinking about it, the Ploes will be lucky not to make a net loss of territory, as they'll have to give the pieces of Czecheslovakia they took back.

 

[Xgentis]

The problem the Polish have is that as they are occupied by the Germans that they have zero negotiating power, save what scraps the French (and to some extent the British) choose to throw them. Throughout the '30s, and particularly after their complicity in the dismemberment of Czechesolvakia, the Polish government was not popular in the West.

I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing any majority ethic German territories being handed to the Poles from Germany,save maybe Danzig - the Western Allies don't hate the Germans enough in 1940. Thinking about it, the Ploes will be lucky not to make a net loss of territory, as they'll have to give the pieces of Czecheslovakia they took back.

I forgot the the pieces of Czecheslovakiathey took. Yes their claims will be brushed aside.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Since an acceptance of ethnic cleansing was certainly not included in the terms offered by Goerdeler all this would do is set up for the next war, at a time when the French and British may soon be busy elsewhere and while the Soviet Union looms and stands as a potential partner if Germany wishes.

Therefore it will not be permitted.

British opinion of Poland calling for the removal of millions of Germans on the grounds that the Polish seizure of territory after WWI isn't working out as well as hoped can be easily imagined. OTL Poland was fortunate Hitler broke Munich so quickly and blatantly as Poland's situation was seen widely as exactly what the British warned would happen in 1919.

Inviting a confrontation shortly after having been saved by Anglo-French efforts will mean a break between London and Warsaw and force Paris to decide whether the British alliance is expendable or not...

 

[Xgentis]

Since an acceptance of ethnic cleansing was certainly not included in the terms offered by Goerdeler all this would do is set up for the next war, at a time when the French and British may soon be busy elsewhere and while the Soviet Union looms and stands as a potential partner if Germany wishes.

Therefore it will not be permitted.

British opinion of Poland calling for the removal of millions of Germans on the grounds that the Polish seizure of territory after WWI isn't working out as well as hoped can be easily imagined. OTL Poland was fortunate Hitler broke Munich so quickly and blatantly as Poland's situation was seen widely as exactly what the British warned would happen in 1919.

Inviting a confrontation shortly after having been saved by Anglo-French efforts will mean a break between London and Warsaw and force Paris to decide whether the British alliance is expendable or not...

If France has to choose between London and Warsaw I am efraid but London is more valuable.

 

[Magnificate]

British opinion of Poland calling for the removal of millions of Germans on the grounds that the Polish seizure of territory after WWI isn't working out as well as hoped can be easily imagined,

The problem is it has been just evidenced that Germany was willing to break the peace and reclaim these lands based in large part on German population there.

How do you ensure there is no incentive for Germany to do that again? Plus, How do you safeguard the German minority from Polish retribution?

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Grimm Reaper

British opinion of Poland calling for the removal of millions of Germans on the grounds that the Polish seizure of territory after WWI isn't working out as well as hoped can be easily imagined. OTL Poland was fortunate Hitler broke Munich so quickly and blatantly as Poland's situation was seen widely as exactly what the British warned would happen in 1919.

Well, the British also have no reasons to think well about the Germans, either. And we are not talking about milions of Germans but less than a milion. Many of them will flee on their own with German troops withdrawing from Poland. They will fear Polish vengeance, quite correctly, I'm affraid.
Sadly, most of those who will remain, will be completely innocent. Their lives in Poland will not be easy. Harassment, boycott of German owned companies, Polish businessmen refusing to do business with Germans or hiring them, Polish officials refusing to speak German, arrests for treason "until he proves he is innocent". If they behaved decently, their Polish neighbours might protect them. OTOH they might not.
During the peace conference Polish minister Beck will say something like that:
"Gentlemen, after German invasion Polish legal and public safety system is in very bad shape. Also our people want revenge for all atrocities German forces comitted. I'm sorry to say that, but Polish authorities can not guarantee safety of ethnic Germans in Poland. In my believe it will be better for them to leave our country and settle in Germany. Polish government believes that the best solution of that question is an exchange of population. We take ethnic Poles living in Germany, Germany will take ethnic Germans from Poland. In this way we neutralize at least one of potential problems. Remember, that Hitler claimed he invaded our country to protect ethnic Germans, among other things. Poland is even willing to negotiate some kind of compensation for Germans voluntarily leaving our land.
Of course there is also question of those ethnic Germans who colaborated with German Army during the war, including acts of sabotage, espionage, murdering and arresting Polish officials and patriots. I'm sure you all agree, that since they were Polish citizens at the time, they have to be considered traitors and severely punished. According to our law their property will be confiscated, if found guilty in court, naturally. I am aware that many Germans already left our country together with German troops. They have 2 months to come back and face trial, if charged. Should they not come back, we will consider it an admission of guilt."
I bet very few Germans will return to Poland to fight for their property.

Originally posted by Grimm Reaper

Since an acceptance of ethnic cleansing was certainly not included in the terms offered by Goerdeler all this would do is set up for the next war, at a time when the French and British may soon be busy elsewhere and while the Soviet Union looms and stands as a potential partner if Germany wishes.
Therefore it will not be permitted.

Nobody throws Germans away from any part of Germany, only from Poland. Poland proposes a population swap. Most of Polish Germans will not want to stay in Poland, anyway, so population swap might be seen as painful, but acceptable to all interested parties. Naturally Poles will accuse of treason as many Germans as possible. Many of them will be actually guilty, from Polish POV. Some will be innocent, but they will suffer anyway. It usually happens so. Poland even might pay some compensation for Polish Germans (if they do not agree to simply swap homes or farms with German Poles). Guess where the money for that will come from.

Originally posted by Alratan

The problem the Polish have is that as they are occupied by the Germans that they have zero negotiating power, save what scraps the French (and to some extent the British) choose to throw them. Throughout the '30s, and particularly after their complicity in the dismemberment of Czechesolvakia, the Polish government was not popular in the West.
I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing any majority ethic German territories being handed to the Poles from Germany,save maybe Danzig - the Western Allies don't hate the Germans enough in 1940. Thinking about it, the Ploes will be lucky not to make a net loss of territory, as they'll have to give the pieces of Czecheslovakia they took back.

Well, ITTL Poles managed to keep a tiny part of their territory, so they can claim: "We were not totally defeated. We kept most of the German Army busy making job much easier for our friends". Not incorrect.
As far as territorial gains goes, Poland will have demands, if they are met, that is another matter. I think the best Poland can count on are some minor changes in Silesia and East Prussia, mostly for prestige sake. Poles will probably have more luck with demilitarized zones in East Prussia and Silesia.

Originally posted by Xgentis

I forgot the the pieces of Czecheslovakiathey took. Yes their claims will be brushed aside.

Really? I would not be so sure. Why should they give it back? Do we make whole Munich invalid?

And here we have again the question of Czechoslovakia. A small Slovakian force took part in invasion of Poland, so they will be considered German allies. Too bad for them. I think we can safely assume the Slovakia will cease to exist as an independent state. OTOH, I do not think France or Britain will be willing to send soldiers to fight small, but determined Slovakian army. I believe Czechoslovakia will be recreated as a federation, with strong Slovakian autonomy. But what about Sudetenland? What about Carpathian Rus given to Hungary? And what about Tesin, taken by Poland?
Hungarians will not step back. Neither will Poles - their position is better, since they are at least officially victors in the war. Poles might agree to a plebiscite (Poland will probably win it), and negotiations with Czechoslovakian government considering railway in the region, vital for Czechoslovakia (exterritorial railway?). Eventually, Hungarians will probably be forced to return Carpathian Rus, but perhaps they will get something to save their face.
Sudetenland will be a real problem. Czechoslovakians will want it back and expell the Germans, claming Polish example. Poles will shrug saying their case is different, besides, Sudetenland is not a Polish problem. Perhaps a division of Sudetenland, with part of it remaining in Germany but demilitarized, and Czechoslovakia regaining the other part? Both sides will be unhappy with it - a perfect compromise.
What do you think about it all? Please, remeber one thing: it is not a matter what you or me believe is right or wrong today. (E.g. I'm not actually fond of ethnic cleansing). We're trying to find out what the politicians and countries of that time would have done.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Magnificate, expelling several million Germans, and remember that Germany has not surrendered or disarmed but simply offered generous terms, will not only guarantee a massive German incentive for another war but possibly set off a domino effect in Eastern Europe and the Balkans where other nations have problems with one(or several) ethnic minorities and a new and unwise precedent has been established.

As for safeguarding the German minority, several million strong, the British would likely be inclined to inform Poland that as a last resort the return of territory only held by Poland since 1919 would be considered.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

seraphim74, more like three million Germans including Danzig, all in an area only part of Poland since 1919.


At these peace talks you suggest Goerdeler will note that Germany is not offering to surrender, not offering to disarm and has not yet withdrawn from Poland and the removal of German forces can always be delayed until the safety of the native population is assured while refusing to consider the removal of the German populaton.

Chamberlain and Reynaud will suggest quietly to Beck that if the Polish government acts the way you suggest while Goerdeler offers terms in good faith then as a last resort Great Britain and France may allow Germany to keep the border regions seized by Poland in 1919.

Given the relations between Great Britain and Poland from 1919 to 1939 there will not be the slightest doubt in French minds that Great Britain will do this if provoked by Poland while in France millions will wonder about the potential precedent for other ethnically mixed areas. Alsace-Lorraine, for instance.


A plebiscite over the region seized from Czechoslovakia by Poland is likely to go Prague's way while neither France nor the UK have the slightest interest in trying to start a new war over the Hungarian land grab at Czechoslovakia's expense, especially since Poland is just as guilty. Poland, of course, is in no position to start a war with Hungary.

 

[Rudi Maxer]

seraphim74, more like three million Germans including Danzig, all in an area only part of Poland since 1919.


At these peace talks you suggest Goerdeler will note that Germany is not offering to surrender, not offering to disarm and has not yet withdrawn from Poland and the removal of German forces can always be delayed until the safety of the native population is assured while refusing to consider the removal of the German populaton.

Chamberlain and Reynaud will suggest quietly to Beck that if the Polish government acts the way you suggest while Goerdeler offers terms in good faith then as a last resort Great Britain and France may allow Germany to keep the border regions seized by Poland in 1919.

Given the relations between Great Britain and Poland from 1919 to 1939 there will not be the slightest doubt in French minds that Great Britain will do this if provoked by Poland while in France millions will wonder about the potential precedent for other ethnically mixed areas. Alsace-Lorraine, for instance.


A plebiscite over the region seized from Czechoslovakia by Poland is likely to go Prague's way while neither France nor the UK have the slightest interest in trying to start a new war over the Hungarian land grab at Czechoslovakia's expense, especially since Poland is just as guilty. Poland, of course, is in no position to start a war with Hungary.

There were 800 000 Germans in Poland and 400 000 in Free City, so stop talking about "millions", unless you provide data to support it. Given the behaviour of many of them during german invasion I would expect many will leave Poland together with German army, not even waiting for any decisions by allies. The expulsions doesn't even have to be mentioned in peace settlement.

As someone pointed before France is the main victor in this war and they will set the peace deal. And they will prop Poland as much as they can, because its France's main ally and best safeguard againt Germany.

Can you also explain last sentence? Why would Poland go to war with Hungary?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Rudi, right, the Germans will all leave while negotiations are taking place and most of Poland is still under German occupation.

To France Great Britain is a vastly more important ally, not to mention the Commonwealth and Empire, and Great Britain is not very friendly to Poland for various reasons. For that matter the terms proposed by Goerdeler are so favorable to France that France will make sure Germany will honor them, not try to restart the war with ethnic cleansing.


As for the German population how about the number of Germans expelled from Poland after WWII, plus an estimated 900,000 German citizens of Slavic ancestry, classed as autochtone Poles, most of whom were not expelled but chose to leave after 1950.

*WARNING!!! Do not include the German population expelled from German territory handed over to Poland in 1945 or the figures will become bizarre.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recovered_Territories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emigration_from_Poland_to_Germany_after_World_War_II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight...ans_from_Poland_during_and_after_World_War_II


See the part where seraphim74 has Hungary forced to make massive concessions, except that Hungary would not do this except under duress and no country willing/able to do so presents itself.

 

[John Farson]

Wouldn't Poland be satisfied with status quo ante-bellum, with Germany paying reparations for the damage it has caused in Poland? Oh, and maybe some kind of DMZ on the German side of the border.

 

[seraphim74]

Grimm Reaper, Carpathian Ruthenia was taken by Hungary not from Poland, but from Czechoslovakia. Poland has nothing against Hungary and vice versa. I wrote about France and Britain pressing Hungary to give that land to Czechoslovakia (if it is recreated). They might do it, or not. Frankly, I'm not sure. It all depend of the way they deal with Treaty of Munich - will they declare it invalid?

As for milions of Germans in Poland: I based my data on demographic census conducted in Poland in 1931: ca 734 000 - so unless ethnic Germans in Poland had some kind of enormous baby boom after that I do not think there were more than 800 000 of them.
Notice also that I wrote about expelling Germans who were Polish citizens in 1939. I admit, that Beck's speech written by me might be unclear and suggesting expulsion of Germans from Danzig. Notice, that I wondered earlier about leaving Danzig as a Free Town.
I do not understand why you put a link to an article about Recovered Territories - Lower and part of Upper Silesia, Pomerania and East Prussia. Poland does not demand most of those territories: they want Danzig, a few small parts of East Prussia and a chunk of Upper Silesia. I had no time to check all the numbers, but most of millions of Germans expelled IOTL in 1945 lived exactly there, not in pre-war Poland. It is also good to remember, that after 1939 Germany started colonization program in Poland, especially in territories incorporated into the Reich, like Great Poland or the Corridor, expelling thousands of Poles to make place for ca 200 000 German settlers (some of them were Germans resettled from Baltic states, Romania and USSR). I think most historians count them too as expelled from Poland, although personally I question that view.

Now, the point about Germans still occupying Poland. I think it is safe bet to say that even during the talks German troops will start withdrawing, at least from pre-war Poland. It would be slow, but they will do it. After all, that is why Britain and France fought the war - to defend Poland. And with Germantroops going away many ethnic Germans will start leaving too.
And I still believe that public opinion in France and Britain will be more anti-German than anti-Polish. Sure, some of Polish demands will be denied, but many of them will be considered quite sensible. After all, it was not Poland that started the war. Germany lost their "we were wronged in Versailles" card with the invasion of Czechoslovakia - a country with almost no German population (after Munich), which never was a part of Germany and which presented no kind of danger to Germany. Germany will be seen as dangerous and impredictable, obvious danger to peace. It must be kept under guard.
And the idea of population swap might seem quite sensible to the French and British. First, it is not their people who are to be resettled. Second, all Germans in Germany, with no minorities in other countries who might serve as pretexts to a war. Third, Poles offer to pay compensation, or Polish Germans are given the houses and farms of German Poles and vice versa (actually, that would favour the Poles). All Germans are home, among their own people, nice solution, with minimal damage to all interested. BTW, it might be a reason to keep Danzig as a Free City under joint Polish-French-British supervision.

Originally posted by John Farson

Wouldn't Poland be satisfied with status quo ante-bellum, with Germany paying reparations for the damage it has caused in Poland? Oh, and maybe some kind of DMZ on the German side of the border.

No. Poland suffered a lot, Polish pride was broken and Polish Germans proved to be a bunch of traitors - that is Polish POV. They will demand a lot, they will get less, but still more that status quo ante, even if only for prestige sake. A little of East Prussia, a little more of Upper Silesia, control over Danzig, war reparations, a lot of German military equipment, and DMZ in East Prussia and Silesia; also population swap with Germany. I think that is the minimum Poland might agree to.

 

[Rudi Maxer]

Rudi, right, the Germans will all leave while negotiations are taking place and most of Poland is still under German occupation.

Well, AFAIK we are talking about situation where Ruhr is already captured/under threat. Now in 1918, Germans were still within belgian borders and occupied way more than Poland in the east. And how did it end? Now their situation is even worse.

To France Great Britain is a vastly more important ally, not to mention the Commonwealth and Empire, and Great Britain is not very friendly to Poland for various reasons. For that matter the terms proposed by Goerdeler are so favorable to France that France will make sure Germany will honor them, not try to restart the war with ethnic cleansing.

Seraphim already described probable polish policy towards its german citizens. Only those considered collaborators or enemy element (like member of nazi-affiliated groups) would be forcibly removed (or tried), and I don't think its too much to demand from Germany, especially if Poland provides proofs how their aid to invaders was detrimental to polish defense efforts. By the way, this hardly deserves the term "ethnic cleansing" that You like so much. Rest would leave Poland after the war due to anti-german resentment, so this has nothing to do with a peace negotiations.

As for Poland's importance for France. France needs allies primarily to balance Germany. Now, British Empire is much stronger than Poland, but its primarily naval power, and german navy is not much threat anymore. British land power is limited and its arrival to France takes time. Also british alliance with France is oportunistic. They support France against Germany, because they don't want german hegemony in Europe, but at the same time will oppose France rising to dominate Europe as well. In fact their stronger position in alliance makes dealing with them more difficult. Poland on the other hand is always tied in alliance with France by common threat, provides check for Germany from the east, and won't mind France being Europe's hegemon. Provided France and Poland together are enough to contain Germany, Poland is for France much more convenient, and therefore better ally than UK.

As for the German population how about the number of Germans expelled from Poland after WWII, plus an estimated 900,000 German citizens of Slavic ancestry, classed as autochtone Poles, most of whom were not expelled but chose to leave after 1950.

*WARNING!!! Do not include the German population expelled from German territory handed over to Poland in 1945 or the figures will become bizarre.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recovered_Territories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emigration_from_Poland_to_Germany_after_World_War_II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight...ans_from_Poland_during_and_after_World_War_II

Could you be more specific, where any of these articles says that pre-war Poland had "several million" Germans?

See the part where seraphim74 has Hungary forced to make massive concessions, except that Hungary would not do this except under duress and no country willing/able to do so presents itself.

Well, Czechoslovakia will demand their territory, and their formes allies from Little Entente as well as France would support them. Poland won't move a finger, as it is friendly with Hungary.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

seraphim74, if you believe that either Great Britain or France would find Poland's demands to be sensible then you have no idea how either nation thought at the time.

Nor can Poland go around imposing all manner of demands on Germany which Poland has no way of enforcing while requiring that France and Great Britain enforce demands to which neither have agreed.




Rudi, if you think driving out an ethnic minority is not ethnic cleansing then you don't understand the term. Your comment that Poland would be a better ally than Great Britain and your raising the prospects of French hegemony in Europe in 1939 are absurd.

 

[Rudi Maxer]

No. Poland suffered a lot, Polish pride was broken and Polish Germans proved to be a bunch of traitors - that is Polish POV. They will demand a lot, they will get less, but still more that status quo ante, even if only for prestige sake. A little of East Prussia, a little more of Upper Silesia, control over Danzig, war reparations, a lot of German military equipment, and DMZ in East Prussia and Silesia; also population swap with Germany. I think that is the minimum Poland might agree to.

As I suggested, repeated plebiscites with some provisions to push the vote in polish favor (like former NSDAP members barred from voting, no votes from emmigrants) may be good way to legitimize some annexations. I doubt Poland would wish to push into lands with german majority anyway.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Poland, having avoided conquest only due to Anglo-French efforts, is not able to annex German territory and neither France nor Great Britain would agree to that, let alone make that happen. What part of this is too difficult to understand?

 

[The Sandman]

Poland's going to lose a decent bit of its eastern territory anyway, because I can all but guarantee that the Soviet Union is going to jump the Germans before the war officially ends. There'll be some noise about "helping our fraternal comrades in Poland" or some such, but whatever portions of Poland the Soviets occupy in the area promised to them by the M-R Pact will not be going back to Poland after the war. It's not as if Stalin has bridges left to burn with Britain and France anyway, and there's really nothing that the British or French can do to stop him from grabbing Eastern Poland even if they want to turn a short victorious war into a longer and more desperate one.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The Sandman, Stalin was ruthless but also cautious. If he hasn't entered the war before the new German government calls for peace he probably will stay out and settle for digesting Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Grimm Reaper

seraphim74, if you believe that either Great Britain or France would find Poland's demands to be sensible then you have no idea how either nation thought at the time.

I believe they were quite a lot of various opinions in both nations. However, somehow I do not think many of them were actually so fond of Germans. And Polish demands, reduced to absolute minimum, are not so bad: some minor territorial changes, population swap, war reparations, DMZs and guarantees of Poland's safety. It is not so much, especially if it will be Germans to pay the price for the war they started and lost.

Poland, having avoided conquest only due to Anglo-French efforts, is not able to annex German territory and neither France nor Great Britain would agree to that, let alone make that happen. What part of this is too difficult to understand?

I simply disagree with your opinion. Polish government is not going to demand the Oder-Neisse border and will probably agree to only minor changes, mostly to save face. Population swap will not be so terrible to many of Polish Germans since most of them will leave on their own fearing Polish vengeance. Poland wants also safety from Germany (completely understandable, considering German invasion), and demilitarization of East Prussia is not so big demand. Of course Poland demands more - I put in one of my previous posts what Polish demands will be, IMHO. Of course Poland will not get it all - but it will get some of it.
And why do you think Britain and France will disagree with some Polish gains? Sure, they were not happy with Poland, but Poland never was a danger to any of them. Germany OTOH was - twice, now. Germany already proved it does not need any sensible reason to invade a country (vide: Czechoslovakia). Any sympathy for Germany in Britain is gone. France never had any.
I can quite well imagine what an average British or French veteran of WWI thought: I spent four miserable years in trenches fighting Jerries / les boches. Now my son was drafted, cause those bastards started another war. It is better to deal with them now, or else one day my grandson will have to fight them again.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

seraphim74, you have yet to offer any factual basis for your claims and especially nothing to show why Great Britain and France would be willing to lay the groundwork for another war by trying to enforce those terms.

The war isn't even over and France/Great Britain will be eager to end the war without setting up the next round, which your proposals would certainly do, not to mention severe domestic problems with the German government offering everything Paris and London could want if word broke out of plans to extend the war for Polish gains. The British and French will be delighted to end the war victoriously with such low costs given popular fears of millions dead at the time and will affirm that Poland's liberation and preservation of her 1939 borders is the gain Poland is entitled to receive.

Having survived due to Anglo-French efforts Poland is in no position to make demands, least of all on the British and French.