WI: French press Saar Offensive
- Thread starter Equuleus
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BlairWitch749
Banned
Poland being mobilized in advance doesn't mean they would do better (admittedly the LW did an excellent job making it difficult for divisions to reach the front and assembly areas by shooting up the roads and rails). Their defense strategy of heavily manning the frontier was still just as stupid as when Stalin did that in 1941 and left them extremely vulnerable to encirclement by German panzer groups which had over 1000km of frontier to select their routes of advance
The Baltic 'basing rights' are essentially OTL. In the case of Lithuania it was delayed almost a week because under the terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact Lithuania was meant to be under German influence. However in TTL Stalin decides he's going to take it anyway because the Germans look like they're going to lose.
Actually the USSR has acted more cautiously in this timeline. They haven't invaded Poland from the east. Everything else is still basically OTL. It will lead to some butterfly's down the track which will arguably place them in a better position in OTL (although that won't be so clear).
Please note in TTL Poland is still getting creamed. I've basically copied OTL result but pushed it back a week. Warsaw still falls (a week later) and a lot of the Polish army is destroyed in the first few days of fighting. However with the Saar Offensive occuring within days of the war starting it takes the momentum out of Germany's campaign. The Polish Army did retreat to the 'romanian bridgehead' in OTL and may have been able to hold a defensive position for some months (likely for the duration of winter 39). However with the OTL Soviet invasion happening it made that strategy hopeless. In TTL they are effectively holed up there and the Germans lack the ability to evict them with their western front in danger of collapse.
This is my first timeline and it's getting more difficult to anticipate the possible effects as time goes by. That being said it's still a draft and rough timeline, so I'm open to criticism and happy to adopt sensible suggestions.
I like your timeline.
In the end that war isn't even a world war. Will Germany be a republic again or a military junta? I hope France has learned the lessons of it's army flaw and fix them.
Thanks Xgentis. The conspirators of OTL had plans to revive the German Monarchy, albeit under a constitutional model drawing from the British model for inspiration. The German military favoured this solution as did notable figures in the west - Churchill in particular. Although it may be some time before a suitable candidate is found, they debated on several figures and to my knowledge never decisively settled on one.
And yes - this war isn't going to be considered a world war. Not sure what historians would call it in TTL, perhaps the War of German Aggression(?).
Re French Army - Yes they certainly have. Expect to see Weygand quietly retired once the dust settles. Probably given his marshal's batons to encourage him to go quietly. Reynaud always supported De Gaulle's mechanised warfare theories, even in his days in the wilderness.
If the Poles hold the Romanian bridgehead, they will be getting quite a bit of supplies and other goods.
Their air force retreated into Romania on the 17th OTL, it might be delayed a few days ITTL - French and British fighters (MS.406s and Hurricanes), tanks (R35 and Lt Mk VI) and artillery as well as supplies were on their way to Romania OTL. Poland fell fast, so those arms were sold to Romania and Turkey OTL. ITTL, they will reach the Poles and make them much stronger - the Romanians will probably allow the Polish air force to rebuild with MS.406 and Hurricanes. They were very French-friendly OTL until Poland fell and the French did little and they thus re-aligned themselves to German friendship. In late October, the Polish air force, with its experienced and extremely well-trained pilots will be back over Poland (these are the guys that did so well in the Battle of Britain) with MS.406 and Hurricane Is instead of Pzl P.11s. The Luftwaffe will be fighting a two-front war, which will add to the strain.
The French were raising two Polish divisions in France at this time, from Polish guest workers (mostly in the coal mining industry). I guess these troops, with more supplies and weapons, might be shipped to Romania for further transit to the Polish troops in the bridgehead.
Polish stragglers and troops in fortified positions had a surprsing tenacity - I guess small groups of stragglers and refugees wishing to fight will continue to trickle to the bridgehead, and the Germans will need to deal with places such as Modlin, where the Poles OTL only surrendered well after other troops (IIRC).
OTL, the Slovaks were less than enthusiastic to fight against fellow Slavs and the Poles were raising a few exile Czechoslovak battalions - if they maintain a border with Slovakia, I expect Slovak deserters and Czech refugees to enter the Romanian brigdehead in a small but steady trickle - a brigade is possible by November 1939, a division by spring.
The autumn rains were late in 1939, but by mid-October any kind of motorised movement was close to impossible in Poland.
I also guess remnants of the Obrona Narodowa and regular army stragglers will form AK early and harass the Germans mercilessly.
Warsaw turned over to the SS? There's not much of an SS to speak of at this time, and a good part of it has been gutted in the Polish campaign (the Germania regiment was over-run in a Polish counterattack). At this time the SS is the stepchild of the Heer - it gets hand-me-down equipment (MG 35/36, Mauser Schnellfeuer, MG08, Czechoslovak rifles etc) and bad training, which they try to make up for with fanaticism - the Heer regarded them as secon rate units and they suffered massive casualties. It is not until late 1940 that the SS can be described as any kind of elite armed branch (a status they lost 1942, when they started taking forced conscripts and making militia formations).
Thankyou for a very good timeline, consider me painted curious.
Their air force retreated into Romania on the 17th OTL, it might be delayed a few days ITTL - French and British fighters (MS.406s and Hurricanes), tanks (R35 and Lt Mk VI) and artillery as well as supplies were on their way to Romania OTL. Poland fell fast, so those arms were sold to Romania and Turkey OTL. ITTL, they will reach the Poles and make them much stronger - the Romanians will probably allow the Polish air force to rebuild with MS.406 and Hurricanes. They were very French-friendly OTL until Poland fell and the French did little and they thus re-aligned themselves to German friendship. In late October, the Polish air force, with its experienced and extremely well-trained pilots will be back over Poland (these are the guys that did so well in the Battle of Britain) with MS.406 and Hurricane Is instead of Pzl P.11s. The Luftwaffe will be fighting a two-front war, which will add to the strain.
The French were raising two Polish divisions in France at this time, from Polish guest workers (mostly in the coal mining industry). I guess these troops, with more supplies and weapons, might be shipped to Romania for further transit to the Polish troops in the bridgehead.
Polish stragglers and troops in fortified positions had a surprsing tenacity - I guess small groups of stragglers and refugees wishing to fight will continue to trickle to the bridgehead, and the Germans will need to deal with places such as Modlin, where the Poles OTL only surrendered well after other troops (IIRC).
OTL, the Slovaks were less than enthusiastic to fight against fellow Slavs and the Poles were raising a few exile Czechoslovak battalions - if they maintain a border with Slovakia, I expect Slovak deserters and Czech refugees to enter the Romanian brigdehead in a small but steady trickle - a brigade is possible by November 1939, a division by spring.
The autumn rains were late in 1939, but by mid-October any kind of motorised movement was close to impossible in Poland.
I also guess remnants of the Obrona Narodowa and regular army stragglers will form AK early and harass the Germans mercilessly.
Warsaw turned over to the SS? There's not much of an SS to speak of at this time, and a good part of it has been gutted in the Polish campaign (the Germania regiment was over-run in a Polish counterattack). At this time the SS is the stepchild of the Heer - it gets hand-me-down equipment (MG 35/36, Mauser Schnellfeuer, MG08, Czechoslovak rifles etc) and bad training, which they try to make up for with fanaticism - the Heer regarded them as secon rate units and they suffered massive casualties. It is not until late 1940 that the SS can be described as any kind of elite armed branch (a status they lost 1942, when they started taking forced conscripts and making militia formations).
Thankyou for a very good timeline, consider me painted curious.
Oh, with the war against Germany done or close to done with, the Soviets will face a lot of problems if they attack Finland. A lot of nations that wanted to help Finland were stopped from doing so by Germany blocking transport of supplies, weapons and volunteers to show their commitment to the non-aggression pact. Italian and Hungarian aid especially.
Perhaps we'll see a German-French--Hungarian-Italian-British-Finnish-Swedish alliance fighting the Soviets? The Poles are too exhausted to be in, but might be invaded anyway, this time by the Soviets?
Perhaps we'll see a German-French--Hungarian-Italian-British-Finnish-Swedish alliance fighting the Soviets? The Poles are too exhausted to be in, but might be invaded anyway, this time by the Soviets?
Stalin will see the writing on the wall and back down, gladly keeping the rights he acquired in the Baltic States.
I hope Herman Goering, Reinhard Heydrich and Wilhelm Frick won't cause to mutch trouble.
I wonder how the french peoples reacted to the war I mean they weren't really enthousiastic but with a short and relatively bloodless war I doubt they faced any casualty in the scale of WW I. There might be huge manifestation of joy in the streets. I am already picturing a military parade in Paris with huge crow of peoples.
And I wonder what would be the demographic and economic efect of the french victory. Would France get an economic and demographic boom?
I wonder how the french peoples reacted to the war I mean they weren't really enthousiastic but with a short and relatively bloodless war I doubt they faced any casualty in the scale of WW I. There might be huge manifestation of joy in the streets. I am already picturing a military parade in Paris with huge crow of peoples.
And I wonder what would be the demographic and economic efect of the french victory. Would France get an economic and demographic boom?
I think Warsaw falls to quickly. The city only surrendered in OTL because of Germans bombing of civilian buildings and no chance for relief. If there was hope for allied help, polish forces in the city could resist for longer.
Possibly. Don't forget bitter street to street fighting had been occurring and the authorities in the city are not aware of German atrocities this early on. I suppose I'm just playing on their reluctance to make their city into a carpark. After all the war's only been going on for several weeks by this point. That being said I could tinker with it a little.
Thanks for your post there Von Adler. The detail concerning the Polish Air Force was most intriguing and I'll look at adopting some of what you write down the track with your permission. Regarding Romania, you're right they were very close to both Poland and France in OTL. In TTL they will be continue to be close.
Also I removed the SS part. I actually put that part in there with no reference to research and just relying on memory. You're absolutely correct SS does not have the capability to do this by then.
I'm tempted to make Stalin the real bogeyman of the west here. Any Winter War will take place during German peace negotiations and there could even be materials and volunteers sent from the new German state to gain goodwill at the peace table. However as Hornla points out Stalin may back down if he perceives international cooperation will conspire against him. Whether he backs down during the midst of the winter war and not before it though I'm not sure yet.
Yes. French and Polish military bases and military access without necessarily dismantling too much of Germany's capabilities in preparation for them as a future ally.
The escaped Nazi's wont cause too much trouble. In fact many of conspirators believe Goering can be salvaged and he may serve some small role in the future. Frick doesn't have any particular following or characteristics and will probably go quietly. Heydrich might become one of those disappearing mysteries (Mueller of OTL). But no he isn't going to organise some mass Nazi resistance.
France is jubilant. I'll cover that in the next few chapters. The demographics will be slightly higher, but in OTL post WW2 France has the highest birthrate of all West European nations - so it won't be too much higher.
Economically France will do much better then OTL by virtue of not being occupied. In OTL she did not match 1929 levels of wealth until 1950, she was on track to achieve this level by 1940 if she didn't fall. That's almost 10 years gained. However in OTL her economy grew incredibly fast after rebuilding from WW2 and those high growth levels are unsustainable in TTL.
Can Stalin afford to back down? If he back down with the Finns he will show weakness to the baltic states who may throw out the soviets soldiers the next day If they feel that he wont do anything to anger the west.
For the armistice negotiation I can see some franco-british garrison in Germany not huge amon of soldiers but just enough to say they are watching them.
Release of Tchecoslovakia and the Sudetenland given back to them.
For Austria it's a little tricky a return of it's independence could be decided by referudum provided that the vote are properly checked.
For the armistice negotiation I can see some franco-british garrison in Germany not huge amon of soldiers but just enough to say they are watching them.
Release of Tchecoslovakia and the Sudetenland given back to them.
For Austria it's a little tricky a return of it's independence could be decided by referudum provided that the vote are properly checked.
I agree backing down will be very risky for Stalin. However it will also be difficult for Russia to press their offensive once international aid starts flowing. Additionally as it becomes clear that Finland's resistance doesn't collapse immediately international pressure will continue to mount and it may be the case that Moscow is ordered to withdraw. I can't see Russia winning such a war with the west in these circumstances.
On the other hand it would be easier to simply avert the winter war when it becomes clear finland intends to resist.
Re Garrison. I'm thinking along the lines of you and that the allied troop bases will be more symbolic then anything.
Re Peace Settlement. Czechslovakia and sudetenland definately returned. Austria is trickier and could be handled by referendum. I'd expect the results will endorse a continuation of their union.
There will be other consequences though. Poland in particular will be looking to punish Germany.
The Maginot line, as originally conceived was part of a broad strategic plan which had the line creating a strong, defensive outer line backed by mobile forces equipped with tanks and mechanised forces, including aircraft, in order to prevent outflanking or breakthroughs.
However, French financial and political problems prevented the creation of the mobile forces being created in the numbers originally believed necessary. That, and a lack of modernisation in the early 1930s of particularly communications (radios) meant that the French army was ill prepared to fight the Germans when they did outflank the Line.
There was nothing wrong, as such with the concepts of the Maginot line. Indeed, the use of fixed defences to channel and prevent offensive action by an enemy force is well established and understood in military thinking. It was used as recently as 1973 by the Israelis and in the 1980s by the Iraqis (and was very successful for them to. Perhaps too successfully as they prepared to "refight the last war" in 1990).
The French abandoned the Saar offensive for many reasons. The official one being that it was too late to save Poland so it would be better to hide behind the Maginot Line and wait for the Germans to destroy themselves on its fortifications.
It is easy to criticize the French for not knowing that the Germans had no strong forces facing them. After all who would have thought that the Germans be SO STUPID as to leave their western border inadequately defended!
The French did have mobile forces that were earmaked for Belgium but obviously the French High Command didn't think it was a good idea to use them here.
If they pushed on then the Germans would have stopped them within a few days. The fact that the Wehrmact in the west had '2 weeks' of prolonged resistance before collapse setting in wouldn't have happened.
The French would have run out of steam before then anyway and would have needed time for logisitics to keep up. The Germans would have been able to reinforce a division at a time as required until Poland fell. Then sufficient troops could have been moved west until the front was secure.
The big change is the higher casualties suffered by Germany and some lost territory would have changed their offensive plans in 1940. In the long term a German defeat by 1941 is likely.
It is easy to criticize the French for not knowing that the Germans had no strong forces facing them. After all who would have thought that the Germans be SO STUPID as to leave their western border inadequately defended!
The French did have mobile forces that were earmaked for Belgium but obviously the French High Command didn't think it was a good idea to use them here.
If they pushed on then the Germans would have stopped them within a few days. The fact that the Wehrmact in the west had '2 weeks' of prolonged resistance before collapse setting in wouldn't have happened.
The French would have run out of steam before then anyway and would have needed time for logisitics to keep up. The Germans would have been able to reinforce a division at a time as required until Poland fell. Then sufficient troops could have been moved west until the front was secure.
The big change is the higher casualties suffered by Germany and some lost territory would have changed their offensive plans in 1940. In the long term a German defeat by 1941 is likely.