Babatus
Donor
Well, I had this idea since a few months, so I guess it will be my first post here (even if it seems that it was posted in a thread 4 years ago). Unfortunatly, I got nor a sufficient knowledge nor the time to post a complete TL.
In 2002, during the 14th of July military parade, Maxime Brunerie, a member of the radical far-right group "Unité Radicale" attempted to murder President Chirac using a .22 rifle. Fortunatly, it failed, but let's say that Brunerie got lucky and managed to get a clear shot and to kill Jacques Chirac. What would bethe consequence on France interior politics and on the world ?
Obvious results: According to the Constitution, Christian Poncelet, the Senate President become the President by interim, and a new election must be organized before 35 days (that is a short delay). What would be interresting is that this new election will happens less than 3 months after the "famous" 2002 election, where Jean Marie Le Pen, head of the far-right Front National managed to get to the 2nd round. For a quick overview of France political spectrum:
- Violent crackdown on all the extremist far right activist group. As in OTL, Unite Radicale is obviously gone, but here I don't see any chance for new groups to emerge a few years after, so no Bloc Identitaire for example. People like Fabrice Robert, who OTL got a marginal influence on the Front National, totally dissapears from the french political scene.
Even if it isn't involved, the Front National will suffer a huge backslash, especially after the mass hysteria caused by the 2002 election (where you got spot on TV litteraly comparing the situation with the rise of the nazis). So short term they are out of the game, the may got a score of around 10% on the upcoming election. The long term consequences on their line and influence on french policy may be interessing, especially as the "causes" of their success (immigration...) will not be butterflied away.
- Will the Partis Socialiste call back Jospin, who officially "withdrawn from politics" after his huge defeat? Or will an other candidate emerge, like Laurent Fabius for example. Hollande may be excluded from the potential candidate given his lack of national influence at this time (?).
- The UMP, that is still the Union Pour la Majorite Presidentielle, is favorite for the upcoming election, but again I don't see any "clear" candidate emerging. As Prime Minister, Jean Pierre Raffarin may be a possibility but it was virtually unknown from the french public (I remember his nomination was a huge suprise when it came). Stay two other possibilities, Sarkozy (Minister of the Interior) and Juppé (who OTL became President of the UMP in November) (uh oh, this situation remind me something). Sarkozy was hugely popular when he was Minister of the Interior, but I don't recall if it was the case just two month after his nomination. Also, what it is interesting is that it was before the "Karcher" and the "National Identity" line, if I remind correctly he was pretty centrist at this time. Juppé is also a serious candidate (and he got experience as a Prime Minister), but he may soon have some problems with the french justice, as in OTL.
In 2002, during the 14th of July military parade, Maxime Brunerie, a member of the radical far-right group "Unité Radicale" attempted to murder President Chirac using a .22 rifle. Fortunatly, it failed, but let's say that Brunerie got lucky and managed to get a clear shot and to kill Jacques Chirac. What would bethe consequence on France interior politics and on the world ?
Obvious results: According to the Constitution, Christian Poncelet, the Senate President become the President by interim, and a new election must be organized before 35 days (that is a short delay). What would be interresting is that this new election will happens less than 3 months after the "famous" 2002 election, where Jean Marie Le Pen, head of the far-right Front National managed to get to the 2nd round. For a quick overview of France political spectrum:
- Violent crackdown on all the extremist far right activist group. As in OTL, Unite Radicale is obviously gone, but here I don't see any chance for new groups to emerge a few years after, so no Bloc Identitaire for example. People like Fabrice Robert, who OTL got a marginal influence on the Front National, totally dissapears from the french political scene.
Even if it isn't involved, the Front National will suffer a huge backslash, especially after the mass hysteria caused by the 2002 election (where you got spot on TV litteraly comparing the situation with the rise of the nazis). So short term they are out of the game, the may got a score of around 10% on the upcoming election. The long term consequences on their line and influence on french policy may be interessing, especially as the "causes" of their success (immigration...) will not be butterflied away.
- Will the Partis Socialiste call back Jospin, who officially "withdrawn from politics" after his huge defeat? Or will an other candidate emerge, like Laurent Fabius for example. Hollande may be excluded from the potential candidate given his lack of national influence at this time (?).
- The UMP, that is still the Union Pour la Majorite Presidentielle, is favorite for the upcoming election, but again I don't see any "clear" candidate emerging. As Prime Minister, Jean Pierre Raffarin may be a possibility but it was virtually unknown from the french public (I remember his nomination was a huge suprise when it came). Stay two other possibilities, Sarkozy (Minister of the Interior) and Juppé (who OTL became President of the UMP in November) (uh oh, this situation remind me something). Sarkozy was hugely popular when he was Minister of the Interior, but I don't recall if it was the case just two month after his nomination. Also, what it is interesting is that it was before the "Karcher" and the "National Identity" line, if I remind correctly he was pretty centrist at this time. Juppé is also a serious candidate (and he got experience as a Prime Minister), but he may soon have some problems with the french justice, as in OTL.
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