WI French Aden

Tsao

Banned
What POD after 1800 could result in a French Aden? What would be the effect on Franco-Brit relations?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The British either never invade, or when they do its a brief occupation/sack of the city and once they suppress local piracy they leave, or perhaps the Sultanate of Lehaj kicks out the EIC while it's occupied with the Sepoy Mutiny in India. The French get back there first after the Suez Canal opens and makes the region an important transit point. They sign a generous deal with the locals to 'protect' them from British reprisals. This eventually leads to French Aden.

The biggest immediate affect would be that the French probably don't go after Djibouti since they wouldn't need it. Without Djibouti there may be less impetus to push east from French positions in western and central/equatorial Africa so probably no Fashoda incident.

Not sure if the French would pick up Somaliland as a supply base for Aden like the British did or if it would simply fall to someone else. Probably the British go after Djibouti or Eritrea as they will want something along route from Suez to India. So the British, French and Italian colonies in the region will be jumbled vs OTL. Perhaps leading to more British influence in Ethiopia. Maybe even some kind of Italo-British Fashoda like incident.

It's even possible that the fallout could then shuffle strategic interests across Africa. The French may join the British in occupation of Egypt if they have an important colony like Aden dependent upon the Suez Canal. Or the French may simply have more interest in East Africa now that they have Aden. So perhaps they take less interest in central/equatorial Africa and more interest in the Swahili coast. So maybe even French East Africa instead of German. While the German Kamerun includes OTL Chad and Central African Rep. The type of horse trading that went on OTL could produce any number of outcomes based upon new geo-strategic interests.
 

Tsao

Banned
The British either never invade, or when they do its a brief occupation/sack of the city and once they suppress local piracy they leave, or perhaps the Sultanate of Lehaj kicks out the EIC while it's occupied with the Sepoy Mutiny in India. The French get back there first after the Suez Canal opens and makes the region an important transit point. They sign a generous deal with the locals to 'protect' them from British reprisals. This eventually leads to French Aden.

The biggest immediate affect would be that the French probably don't go after Djibouti since they wouldn't need it. Without Djibouti there may be less impetus to push east from French positions in western and central/equatorial Africa so probably no Fashoda incident.

Not sure if the French would pick up Somaliland as a supply base for Aden like the British did or if it would simply fall to someone else. Probably the British go after Djibouti or Eritrea as they will want something along route from Suez to India. So the British, French and Italian colonies in the region will be jumbled vs OTL. Perhaps leading to more British influence in Ethiopia. Maybe even some kind of Italo-British Fashoda like incident.

It's even possible that the fallout could then shuffle strategic interests across Africa. The French may join the British in occupation of Egypt if they have an important colony like Aden dependent upon the Suez Canal. Or the French may simply have more interest in East Africa now that they have Aden. So perhaps they take less interest in central/equatorial Africa and more interest in the Swahili coast. So maybe even French East Africa instead of German. While the German Kamerun includes OTL Chad and Central African Rep. The type of horse trading that went on OTL could produce any number of outcomes based upon new geo-strategic interests.
So what alliances would form as a result of these shifted interests?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
So what alliances would form as a result of these shifted interests?

Depends how things play out. If the biggest change is shuffling around the colonies in the Horn of Africa amongst the British, French and Italians probably little changes from OTL. But if the butterflies get agitated and the rest of the scramble for Africa is changed then it could affect the formation of the Entente and Italy's membership in the Triple Alliance. Having said that I think really large scale shifts are unlikely when you work it through:

Assuming the French occupation of Aden is about 1869 +/- and not in direct opposition to ongoing British interests there (ie Britain never took Aden or left it/was kicked out well before the French came in) its probably no more than a diplomatic incident at worst (on the scale of Fashoda or Agadir) and maybe not even that. The British instead look across the Gulf of Aden for a port of their own and take over Obock.

If Britian gains Djibouti and OTL British Somaliland (I'm not sure the French would go after it) they will have borders with Ethiopia on about three sides and importantly Ethiopian commerce will likely flow through British Djibouti so it won't tolerate Italian attempts at making Ethiopia a protectorate. So that's my Fashoda analogy. But the Italians almost certainly back down before it gets bad. But that's all the more reason for them to be a nominal member of the Central Alliance so pretty much like OTL still.

That's just one scenario but it seems fairly plausible. There is of course opportunity for greater divergence from OTL depending on the particulars. The big question in my mind is whether the French use Aden as a springboard to further expansion in East Africa. Either it ends up as simply a coaling port like Djibouti or it becomes a major colony and entrepot and thus refocuses French interests to east Africa in the coming scramble for territory.
 
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