WI: Frederick William I Lives Longer

[Monarch]

Historically, the War of the Austrian Succession broke out when Frederick II brazenly invaded Silesia under false pretenses. From there French politicking expanded the bilateral war into a continental war. But what if Frederick II had not been king when Emperor Charles VII died? His father had vague claims to Julich at the time and had recently negotiated a secret military alliance with France. So would Frederick William I, "The Soldier King", have gone to war over the Austrian succession? Would he have pursued Silesia or perhaps Prussian claims in the west? And would his alliance with France potentially bring France officially into the war earlier, meaning more French soldiers from the get-go?

 

[JackLumber]

What false pretences?

 

[Monarch]

What false pretences?

Originally Frederick II made some statements about occupying Silesia to defend it for Maria Theresa against other claimants. He even tried to convince the Austrians to cough up Silesia in return for his help after he had invaded Silesia.

 

[JackLumber]

Originally Frederick II made some statements about occupying Silesia to defend it for Maria Theresa against other claimants. He even tried to convince the Austrians to cough up Silesia in return for his help after he had invaded Silesia.

I believe there was a legitmate concern that the Wettins would connect saxony with the PLC by taking silesia, so not an entirely false pretence and I'm sure Fritz would have helped Maria had she taken him up on his offer so again not an entirely false pretence either

 

[Monarch]

I believe there was a legitmate concern that the Wettins would connect saxony with the PLC by taking silesia, so not an entirely false pretence and I'm sure Fritz would have helped Maria had she taken him up on his offer so again not an entirely false pretence either

There was little concern that the Wettins would connect the Commonwealth to Saxony until Frederick started the War of the Austrian Succession. Saxony was in fact, originally, a strong supporter of Maria Theresa and offered her its aid. Saxony only turned on Austria when things turned very poor for Austria and Saxony thought the only recourse left was to gain from Austria's demise. Frederick's initial statements included nothing about acquiring Silesia as a Prussian possession, hence the false pretences.

 

[JackLumber]

There was little concern that the Wettins would connect the Commonwealth to Saxony until Frederick started the War of the Austrian Succession. Saxony was in fact, originally, a strong supporter of Maria Theresa and offered her its aid. Saxony only turned on Austria when things turned very poor for Austria and Saxony thought the only recourse left was to gain from Austria's demise. Frederick's initial statements included nothing about acquiring Silesia as a Prussian possession, hence the false pretences.

Just because Prussia kicked it off doesn't mean they weren't potentially worried about someone else attacking Austria in its moment of weakness and saxony taking advantage of it then.
My interpretation of the event was that Fritz originally occupied silesia as a way to measure the Austrian ability to respond and claimed to be "protecting" for her so he could have an out if Austria turned out to be stronger than he had gauged.
I see it as more of a feeling out than a false pretence and when Austria proved to be weak he shifted gears and looked to claim it for himself.

 

[Monarch]

Just because Prussia kicked it off doesn't mean they weren't potentially worried about someone else attacking Austria in its moment of weakness and saxony taking advantage of it then.
My interpretation of the event was that Fritz originally occupied silesia as a way to measure the Austrian ability to respond and claimed to be "protecting" for her so he could have an out if Austria turned out to be stronger than he had gauged.
I see it as more of a feeling out than a false pretence and when Austria proved to be weak he shifted gears and looked to claim it for himself.

I think you misunderstand. At the very beginning of the conflict, Saxony was not opposed to Maria Theresa despite its claim. In fact, almost every major European power was either otherwise occupied (i.e. Spain), supportive (i.e. Britain), or indifferent (i.e. Russia) to Maria Theresa's succession besides Bavaria (who was openly hostile) at the start of the conflict. And Bavaria was too cautious to attack Austria by itself. Thus Frederick II had nothing to worry about in regards to someone else taking Austrian real estate before he did.

Secondly Frederick II was not "testing the waters". For weeks he sent diplomats to Vienna proclaiming Prussia a friend and absolute supporter of Maria Theresa. Then he surprise invaded Silesia under the pretense of defending it. The reaction of Austria was outrage since Frederick had completely lied to Maria Theresa and was now demanding that Maria Theresa recognize his claims to Silesia in return for the same support he had earlier given unconditionally. The action Frederick took was not a test but a coup d'main which was designed with the goal of acquiring Silesia either through coercion or continental war (Frederick thought that he could provoke a massive war if Maria Theresa refused his offer, he was correct).

 

[JackLumber]

I think you misunderstand. At the very beginning of the conflict, Saxony was not opposed to Maria Theresa despite its claim. In fact, almost every major European power was either otherwise occupied (i.e. Spain), supportive (i.e. Britain), or indifferent (i.e. Russia) to Maria Theresa's succession besides Bavaria (who was openly hostile) at the start of the conflict. And Bavaria was too cautious to attack Austria by itself. Thus Frederick II had nothing to worry about in regards to someone else taking Austrian real estate before he did.

Secondly Frederick II was not "testing the waters". For weeks he sent diplomats to Vienna proclaiming Prussia a friend and absolute supporter of Maria Theresa. Then he surprise invaded Silesia under the pretense of defending it. The reaction of Austria was outrage since Frederick had completely lied to Maria Theresa and was now demanding that Maria Theresa recognize his claims to Silesia in return for the same support he had earlier given unconditionally. The action Frederick took was not a test but a coup d'main which was designed with the goal of acquiring Silesia either through coercion or continental war (Frederick thought that he could provoke a massive war if Maria Theresa refused his offer, he was correct).

You conviently forgot about France and I think you misunderstood, occupied silesia claiming to defend it correct and Austria was outraged but what did they do about it? Almost nothing.
I'm not saying Fredrick wasn't looking to get his hands on silesia and I'm not saying his way of doing it wasn't a little shady, I'm saying had the Austrians had a stronger response quicker he would have backed down and used his Proclamation of moving in to defend the province to cover his ass.
You could interpret that as false pretense I am more inclined to call that clever if a bit cheeky diplomatic maneuvering

 

[Monarch]

You conviently forgot about France and I think you misunderstood, occupied silesia claiming to defend it correct and Austria was outraged but what did they do about it? Almost nothing.
I'm not saying Fredrick wasn't looking to get his hands on silesia and I'm not saying his way of doing it wasn't a little shady, I'm saying had the Austrians had a stronger response quicker he would have backed down and used his Proclamation of moving in to defend the province to cover his ass.
You could interpret that as false pretense I am more inclined to call that clever if a bit cheeky diplomatic maneuvering

I used "i.e." to signify the countries that best represented that attribute. I obviously did not include every single European power. France was indifferent to the Austrian Succession. France was unwilling to commit to a major war against Austria since Spain (France's main ally) was occupied with Britain, the Ottomans (another French ally) were recently defeated, Sardinia was completely unreliable, and the German States for the most part were initially supportive of Maria Theresa. Instead France offered vague guarantees of support to Austria but had no intention of fighting to defend Austria in the event that a war broke out. It was only the fact that Austria was shockingly defeated by Prussia that convinced France to sponsor and fund Maria Theresa's enemies.

Austria did not do almost nothing. They immediately rejected the Prussian proposal and began to regroup their Silesian forces and raise more armies. The reason they did not immediately launch a counterattack was because Frederick II, wisely, attacked so late in the campaign season that Austria could not launch a counterattack yet. Furthermore another reason the Austrians did not quickly launch a counterattack was because there were two competing plans for the counterattack and Maria Theresa had to decide which one she wanted.

Frederick II would not have backdowned. He was confident in the ability of the Prussian army and had entrenched himself in Lower Silesia. He had deliberately crossed the Austrians and was fully aware of the potential consequences. That is why when the Austrians denied his proposal the first thing he did was open negotiations with the French to secure their support.

 

[JackLumber]

I used "i.e." to signify the countries that best represented that attribute. I obviously did not include every single European power. France was indifferent to the Austrian Succession. France was unwilling to commit to a major war against Austria since Spain (France's main ally) was occupied with Britain, the Ottomans (another French ally) were recently defeated, Sardinia was completely unreliable, and the German States for the most part were initially supportive of Maria Theresa. Instead France offered vague guarantees of support to Austria but had no intention of fighting to defend Austria in the event that a war broke out. It was only the fact that Austria was shockingly defeated by Prussia that convinced France to sponsor and fund Maria Theresa's enemies.

Austria did not do almost nothing. They immediately rejected the Prussian proposal and began to regroup their Silesian forces and raise more armies. The reason they did not immediately launch a counterattack was because Frederick II, wisely, attacked so late in the campaign season that Austria could not launch a counterattack yet. Furthermore another reason the Austrians did not quickly launch a counterattack was because there were two competing plans for the counterattack and Maria Theresa had to decide which one she wanted.

Frederick II would not have backdowned. He was confident in the ability of the Prussian army and had entrenched himself in Lower Silesia. He had deliberately crossed the Austrians and was fully aware of the potential consequences. That is why when the Austrians denied his proposal the first thing he did was open negotiations with the French to secure their support.

Hmm fair enough, you've convinced me.
More on topic, Frederick William had been slighted by the Habsburgs in the past so he may have acted in a similar way to Fritz he may use the western claims as a pretext for the war but should he do well he would be stupid not to try for silesia.

 

[Monarch]

Hmm fair enough, you've convinced me.
More on topic, Frederick William had been slighted by the Habsburgs in the past so he may have acted in a similar way to Fritz he may use the western claims as a pretext for the war but should he do well he would be stupid not to try for silesia.

So you imagine that Frederick William I would start the war by invading Silesia? Or that he would pursue Silesia later in the war?

 

[JackLumber]

So you imagine that Frederick William I would start the war by invading Silesia? Or that he would pursue Silesia later in the war?

I think for geographic reasons Silesia is the obvious place to attack in the event of a war with Austria but he may only extend his demands for it later should he do well.

 

[Monarch]

I think for geographic reasons Silesia is the obvious place to attack in the event of a war with Austria but he may only extend his demands for it later should he do well.

Makes sense