WI: Frederick the Great dies at Kunersdorf

What happens if Frederick the Great dies at the Battle of Kunersdorf on 12 August 1759?

The war is over. Negotiations will begin on behalf of his nephew.

His Kingdom is partially cut up. His idiot nephew drives it into the ground.

Silesia is returned to Austria. Possibly little pieces of his Empire go to various allies: Russia, Poland, Mechlenburg, Sweden, Saxony, France, etc.

It depends how greedy they get.

Hanover could be in trouble too as George II broke the 1757 surrender/ceasefire and reentered the war illegally. Without Prussian help, Hanover falls.

It would be up to the victors to determine Hanover's fate. Britain could be expelled from the continent.

Prussia would almost certainly be relegated to a 2nd tier power with the psychological loss and the demographic loss of probably a third of their population, economy and territory.

Other nations would be less apt to copy the "Prussian Model" of military organization.

No one would stand up for Prussia, they'd played the game too well in the past and gained territory at everyone else's expense. Even the holy "Balance of Power" question would be thrown out the window. Maria Theresa and Elizabeth truly hated Frederick and did not want anything of his to survive in a viable form.

Germany is unlikely to be united by anyone, at least in the same form.

Probably no Polish Partitians. Prussia was the initial lead on that. Austria was less interested as long as power in Poland was any way balanced with Russia. Russia was happy to let things sit in Poland.

Without Prussia to force them to hand back Ottoman Territory conquered in various wars, the Ottoman Empire loses its European contengent by 1790 to Austrian and Russia Armies. Lacking those resources, Levantine and North African subject lands secede or are conquered. The Ottoman is relegated to the Anatolian plateau by 1800.

The Napoleonic wars go differently, tough to say how much.

The map of Europe is redrawn.
 
So contemptuous are you? I'd think they'd be able to hold together a bit more a bit longer...

I think this is pretty realistic:

1. Austria made very easy gains in the 1770's/80's in the Balkans. Only Prussia threats forced their hands at giving back most of the territory.
2. Russia made very easy gains in the 1780's in the Caucusus and Ukraine.
3. Persia easily invaded Baghdad
4. Egypt rebelled in the 1760's and conquered Syria. Only internal intrigue halted this.
5. Much of the Balkans were continuing to rebel on a regular basis. Without the European powers to force a lighter hand with defacto self-government, the Ottoman would have tried a harsher regime that they could not enforce. Even without foreign help, Greece, Serbia, Romania, etc, would have achieved independence.
 
Prussia is partioned, Silesia to Austria, Magdeburg and Lusatia to Saxony, East Prussia to Russia (soon to be traded by Courland), the Rhenish and Westphalian provinces divided between Austria and Saxony, possibly some regaining Imperial Imediacy, Sweden restores Pommerania to its original size.

The situation of Hannover is tricky, the French acquired a lot of ground by 1759 and it's fortunes would only reverse in 1761 with Prussian help, so Hannover falls by 1760 (1761 if the French are REALLY incompent).

France uses Hannover as a bargain chip against Britain for limited losses in North America and India.
 
I think this is pretty realistic:

1. Austria made very easy gains in the 1770's/80's in the Balkans. Only Prussia threats forced their hands at giving back most of the territory.
2. Russia made very easy gains in the 1780's in the Caucusus and Ukraine.
3. Persia easily invaded Baghdad
4. Egypt rebelled in the 1760's and conquered Syria. Only internal intrigue halted this.
5. Much of the Balkans were continuing to rebel on a regular basis. Without the European powers to force a lighter hand with defacto self-government, the Ottoman would have tried a harsher regime that they could not enforce. Even without foreign help, Greece, Serbia, Romania, etc, would have achieved independence.

The Ottomans could always get his main pal to help: France.
 
Germany is unlikely to be united by anyone, at least in the same form.

(...)

The Napoleonic wars go differently, tough to say how much.

This is a bit of a stretch. Things are going to go very differently from now on. Who knows if the Napoleonic Wars even still happen? Even more so for the nationalist questions. These things are far in the future and events in the next decades would yet have an effect on them.
 
Prussia is partioned, Silesia to Austria, Magdeburg and Lusatia to Saxony, East Prussia to Russia (soon to be traded by Courland), the Rhenish and Westphalian provinces divided between Austria and Saxony, possibly some regaining Imperial Imediacy, Sweden restores Pommerania to its original size.

The situation of Hannover is tricky, the French acquired a lot of ground by 1759 and it's fortunes would only reverse in 1761 with Prussian help, so Hannover falls by 1760 (1761 if the French are REALLY incompent).

France uses Hannover as a bargain chip against Britain for limited losses in North America and India.

This is very similar to one of my timelines.

I had France holding their own in India (no British conquest of Bengal) and leaving a general status quo. However, they did lose Canada and deemed the lose acceptable as it was considerably less valuable than the West Indies islands (never lost) and a sinkhole for money that was surrounded by the more populous British colonies to the south and the more powerful Royal Navy (thus doomed to be lost at some point).

So France did not offer George II his patrimony back.

The dissenting voices were that France had no dynastic right to keep Hanover. I wasn't worried about this as conquest was conquest and France could hardly be expected to get nothing out of the war.

However, Louis XV offered Hanover to a younger grandson, never to be united with France. A catholic ruler of a predominantly protestant land would make people uncomfortable. The Habsburgs would loathe the idea.

Everything worked out neatly when the Duke of Bavaria dies at the same time as the French prince.

Bavaria went to Austria, Hanover to the Wittelsbachs (whom hated Bavaria anyway) and the Austrian Netherlands to France.

In this scenario, Maria Theresa would just trade the Austrian Netherlands upfront to France for Hanover and keep the Bourbons from ever having a foothold in the Holy Roman Empire in the first place. Later, when Duke Maximilian dies, the trade with the Wittelsbachs will be much simpler.
 
This is a bit of a stretch. Things are going to go very differently from now on. Who knows if the Napoleonic Wars even still happen? Even more so for the nationalist questions. These things are far in the future and events in the next decades would yet have an effect on them.

It may be united but not by Prussia!;)

You are correct, too far down the line leaves too many butterflies for the Napoleonic wars.

But Prussia had importance in that war and would be much diminished. Without a strong northern german state, things might have been different, though no one can say how.
 
This is very similar to one of my timelines.

I had France holding their own in India (no British conquest of Bengal) and leaving a general status quo. However, they did lose Canada and deemed the lose acceptable as it was considerably less valuable than the West Indies islands (never lost) and a sinkhole for money that was surrounded by the more populous British colonies to the south and the more powerful Royal Navy (thus doomed to be lost at some point).

So France did not offer George II his patrimony back.

The dissenting voices were that France had no dynastic right to keep Hanover. I wasn't worried about this as conquest was conquest and France could hardly be expected to get nothing out of the war.

However, Louis XV offered Hanover to a younger grandson, never to be united with France. A catholic ruler of a predominantly protestant land would make people uncomfortable. The Habsburgs would loathe the idea.

Everything worked out neatly when the Duke of Bavaria dies at the same time as the French prince.

Bavaria went to Austria, Hanover to the Wittelsbachs (whom hated Bavaria anyway) and the Austrian Netherlands to France.

In this scenario, Maria Theresa would just trade the Austrian Netherlands upfront to France for Hanover and keep the Bourbons from ever having a foothold in the Holy Roman Empire in the first place. Later, when Duke Maximilian dies, the trade with the Wittelsbachs will be much simpler.

Your Austria seems too keen to France. My idea is: Once Prussia is out, Austria becomes hostile to France at the blink of a eye and confirms the Third Treaty where France (or any Bourbon) wouldn't get the Netherlands without a war. Also, Louis XV wouldn't try to put a Bourbon in Hannover, the Protestants (since a century allies of France) would be really mad (remember, there is only Prussia and Hannover of protestant electors left) and having a French puppet as an elector would mean a instant declaration of war by Austria.
 
I somehow doubt, Prussia will be dismantled that much. Austria will get Silesia back and other allies will also get their rewards, but removing Prussia-Brandenburg might also be seen as a bad idea by some.
 
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