WI: Frederick III dies in 1645, Danish-Dutch Union?

[Zaffre]

This is the rarest of what-ifs: a personal union that (I think) hasn't been suggested before.

But it's actually rather simple - let's say that King Frederick III of Denmark dies early in 1645 (horse trips, or something equally inconsequential), three years before he becomes king, and before he's had any kids.

Barring massive butterflies, it's entirely reasonable for his older brother Christian to also die in the next few years without any kids (as OTL), soon followed by his father king Christian IV.

IOTL his successor was Frederick III (and subsequently his descendants). ITTL it's - who? Christian IV has outlived all of his legitimate children, and while he may have several children from his morganatic marriage with Kirsten Munk it seems like (correct me if I'm wrong) the Danish Estates and Rigsrådet are going to be very reluctant to pass the throne to any of them.

Christian IV's agnatic heir is therefore actually rather far afield. He has no surviving brothers (and none of those brothers had any children) - so it passes to his eldest sister, Elizabeth of Brunswick, who is herself dead, as are all her sons (and none of them had any children, either), so it passes to her oldest daughter, Sophia of Nassau-Dietz, who is also dead, but who does have one living son (fucking finally) - William Frederick of Nassau-Dietz, who now has the closest thing to "a good claim to the throne of Denmark".

William Frederick is 34 and reasonably canny but (this is where things get a bit weird) - actively involved in Dutch politics, and even the stadtholder of Friesland, Groningen, and Drenthe at this point. He's also high up in the House of Nassau - so much so, in fact, that after the death of his distant relative William III, his great-grandson eventually ruled all of the Netherlands. And this twist in the Dutch succession can't just be "butterflied" away - if that's the case then either there's an Anglo-Dutch Union or there was no William III/Mary II or Glorious Revolution at all - there is literally no possible way for Europe to get out of this without massive changes. (This is all assuming that William Frederick is chosen to be King of Denmark, which isn't a given; but as far as I can tell, he would leap at the chance - and I don't think there's a much less "foreign" option after him?)


So if we get a Danish-Frisian Union / later a Danish-Dutch Union, how does that reshape Danish/Dutch/European politics?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

This is the rarest of what-ifs: a personal union that (I think) hasn't been suggested before.

But it's actually rather simple - let's say that King Frederick III of Denmark dies early in 1645 (horse trips, or something equally inconsequential), three years before he becomes king, and before he's had any kids.

Barring massive butterflies, it's entirely reasonable for his older brother Christian to also die in the next few years without any kids (as OTL), soon followed by his father king Christian IV.

IOTL his successor was Frederick III (and subsequently his descendants). ITTL it's - who? Christian IV has outlived all of his legitimate children, and while he may have several children from his morganatic marriage with Kirsten Munk it seems like (correct me if I'm wrong) the Danish Estates and Rigsrådet are going to be very reluctant to pass the throne to any of them.

Christian IV's agnatic heir is therefore actually rather far afield. He has no surviving brothers (and none of those brothers had any children) - so it passes to his eldest sister, Elizabeth of Brunswick, who is herself dead, as are all her sons (and none of them had any children, either), so it passes to her oldest daughter, Sophia of Nassau-Dietz, who is also dead, but who does have one living son (fucking finally) - William Frederick of Nassau-Dietz, who now has the closest thing to "a good claim to the throne of Denmark".

William Frederick is 34 and reasonably canny but (this is where things get a bit weird) - actively involved in Dutch politics, and even the stadtholder of Friesland, Groningen, and Drenthe at this point. He's also high up in the House of Nassau - so much so, in fact, that after the death of his distant relative William III, his great-grandson eventually ruled all of the Netherlands. And this twist in the Dutch succession can't just be "butterflied" away - if that's the case then either there's an Anglo-Dutch Union or there was no William III/Mary II or Glorious Revolution at all - there is literally no possible way for Europe to get out of this without massive changes. (This is all assuming that William Frederick is chosen to be King of Denmark, which isn't a given; but as far as I can tell, he would leap at the chance - and I don't think there's a much less "foreign" option after him?)


So if we get a Danish-Frisian Union / later a Danish-Dutch Union, how does that reshape Danish/Dutch/European politics?

How's this for starters - Prince Frederik dies in 1645, Prince Christian dies at a future point, then Christian IV. Willem Frederik of Nassau-Dietz is the nearest thing to a good claim - however, AFAIK the Danish monarchy was elective until Frederik III. Assuming that (Vilhelm) Frederik III is king of Denmark he might/might not marry Albertina Agnes (who his great-grandson's claim to the Dutch stadtholderate came through). I could see Amalie of Solms-Brauenfels gunning for such a match - she was a pretty successful social climber OTL (think of a much more successful Anne Boleyn type person). That removes the Nassau-Dietz meddling in Dutch politics of OTL. Then, as an added twist - and to prevent things from going too unrecognizable, Willem II dies as OTL (not necessarily of the same thing, but he was at war IIRC, so maybe he gets killed in battle or something or dies of trench foot (can't remember what killed him offhand)). His only child, Willem III - is either stillborn or female. If the former, the Dutch either go full Republic, try and maintain the stadtholderate by electing one of Frederik Hendrik/Maurits' bastards maybe?, or go into PU with Denmark. If the latter, Willem is Wilhelmina Amalia, then we might see a stadtholderless period until Wilhelmina's husband pushes for a restorate of the stadtholderate.

 

[Nephi]

Fascinating is this the Union of Double D's?

 

[JonasResende]

Fascinating is this the Union of Double D's?

Nope, cause Dolly Parton and Pam An aren't invited

 

[HJ Tulp]

Oh, on second thought this is really interesting!

Quite naturally there will not be a sudden all-encompasing Personal Union between Denmark and the Netherlands. If only because the Stadholderates were not titles, they were offices. The Stadholder was appointed and in service of the Estate(s). His skill and duration of life usually determined his influence in power. His succession was never certain. Having a Nassau(-Dietz) as ruler of a major power will have a lot of interesting effects though.

Some things to consider assuming WF ascends the Danish throne in 1645:

1. At this point WF is only Stadholder of Friesland. Only when Willem II (son of Frederik Hendrik) died would he become Stadholder of Groningen en Drenthe.

a. Will he be appointed to those offices if he is a absent king? It's doubtful the Estates will be happy with that, on the other hand his rescources can be a lot more and he might be able to force the issue.
b. Does Willem II even die in this TL? William II died of smallpox so his dead could easily be butterflied away.
c. If Willem II dies anyway what counts for the northern provinces might also count for the rest of the Republic: they might not like a foreign king as Stadholder but if he is supported by an army.... At least WF will probably not have commanded the army that tried to take Amsterdam in William II's coup so his reputation is better ATL.
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2. Denmark is very important to the Dutch Republic. Contrary to what most people think, the Dutch Golden Age was not build on the VOC or the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade but on the trade with Baltic Sea (Moedernegotie or Mothertrade). In 1645 and 1646 Dutch fleets forced the Sont. A Dutch king on the Danish throne might look beneficial but the Regenten will never allow Denmark (or Sweden for that matter) to control both sides of the Sont.

 

[Jürgen]

Denmark was a elective monarchy at the time and Frederick had in fact a candidate against him, the Duke of Gottorp (same house and son of one of Christian's sisters) I think he would be the most likely to be elected. But if This guy was willing to spend the bribes to be elected, I think he could get away with it.

 

[Milites]

Yeah, good luck getting the Council of the Realm to accept such a candidate. The conciliar opposition was riding on a high wave of political power during Christian IV's last years and they would be sure to use such an opportunity to choose a meek and pliable successor. Heck, they might even go full retard and aim at the establishment of an aristocratic conciliar republic.

 

[JonasResende]

Denmark was a elective monarchy at the time and Frederick had in fact a candidate against him, the Duke of Gottorp (same house and son of one of Christian's sisters) I think he would be the most likely to be elected. But if This guy was willing to spend the bribes to be elected, I think he could get away with it.

Not tto mention Valdemar Christian, son of Christian and Kristin Munck. He might've been born of a morganatic marriage, but IIRC he wanted to/did stand in the election against Frederik III.

 

[Milites]

Not tto mention Valdemar Christian, son of Christian and Kristin Munck. He might've been born of a morganatic marriage, but IIRC he wanted to/did stand in the election against Frederik III.

He naively presumed to be capable of opposing Frederick III, but the council would have none of it.

 

[HJ Tulp]

So any ideas how we can get WF elected as King of Danes? Is it possible that through this the Danes hope to secure a Dutch alliance?

 

[Milites]

The Dutch wanted to divide control over the Sound and in that regard a Swedish alliance made much sense. The best they could hope for with the Danes would be a drastic reduction of the Sound Due, which would be economical suicide for a king still ruling under the constraints of the council of the realm.

 

[HJ Tulp]

The Dutch wanted to divide control over the Sound and in that regard a Swedish alliance made much sense. The best they could hope for with the Danes would be a drastic reduction of the Sound Due, which would be economical suicide for a king still ruling under the constraints of the council of the realm.

I think you misunderstood my point The Dutch certainly wanted control over the Sound to be divided by atleast two powers. Given the way OTL played out the Regenten in Holland are certainly not going to push for the Danes to accept WF as their king. Is it on the other hand possible that the counclic of the realm would elect WF because he is Dutch in the hope that the Dutch will be on their side?

 

[JonasResende]

He naively presumed to be capable of opposing Frederick III, but the council would have none of it.

if Frederik III isn't around would the Council prefer Valdi to a Dutch or Holsteiner foreigner?

 

[Milites]

I think you misunderstood my point The Dutch certainly wanted control over the Sound to be divided by atleast two powers. Given the way OTL played out the Regenten in Holland are certainly not going to push for the Danes to accept WF as their king. Is it on the other hand possible that the counclic of the realm would elect WF because he is Dutch in the hope that the Dutch will be on their side?

That's a difficult question to ascertain. The members of the council of the realm did include some rather savvy people in the past with some understanding of foreign policy. However, given the catastrophes endured by the wanton behaviour of Christian IV, you can be pretty damn certain they're going to use every opportunity to put as many constraints on the new king as possible.

if Frederik III isn't around would the Council prefer Valdi to a Dutch or Holsteiner foreigner?

It's rather the other way around. I think they would prefer almost anyone to a bastard, there was a tradition at least of searching the smaller German states for distant relatives if a close descendant of the late king couldn't be found.

 

[Jürgen]

They would prefer a Holsteiner or Netherlander to a guy closely related to one of the great houses. But with Frederik dying in 1645 there's a few years for Christian to find a favourite candidate. Christian will know his bastard sons would never get elected. But William Frederick was engaged to one of the king's morganatic daughter (liely his youngest with Vibeke Kruse) or granddaughters, he could maybe get Christians support, if he at the same time was willing to throw bribes around, I think he could get elected. The question are whether he could keep Christian's Schleswig-Holstein possessions.

 

[Bastiram]

Out of curiosity, would't The Netherlands be interested in controlling the sound, it is before the loss of Skåneland, the eastern part of the kingdom. Surely the Netherlands at this point have enough money to bribe the nobility of Denmark to appoint one of their candidates ?