i've been thinking more on the subject of the Wof AS...and I've come to a conclusion that there may never have been one in this eventuality... or if so a more likely quick one versus the upstart Charles Albert and perhaps a more reluctant Saxony( Who may not even participate either, I'm not sure there.
The assumption is that under August William Prussian activity will be somewhat more cautious, and less a bold stroke as it were. That may be but their is still Prince Heinrich even without Frederick he is still a very capable general in his own right and an equally capable diplomat, one not adverse to speaking his own mind on matters of policy concerning the electorate, even to Frederick himself to whom he disagreed on more than one occasion.
However Heinrich is not King, but he may be able to mold policy somewhat by force of will with respect to August William.
I suspect that instead of the bold pre-emptive strike of Frederick's which could be nixed by August you could see a vigorous Diplomatic offensive for further concessions instead. If anyone can get them Heinrich probably can as he is one of the architects of Poland-Lithuania's later first partition.
So say the Prussians settle for some minor border adjustments, a few towns, parishes or counties in the furthest reaches of lower Silesia closest to Neumark say in exchange for dropping their claims on Brieg ( The pretext OTL for Frederick's aggressive and rather bold stroke). They preserve their valuable standing army to fight another day and continue to conserve their meagre financial resources. Further more they still remain a dark horse whose potential is not yet realized by the other great powers.
The question then becomes, without a pre-emptive move by Prussia are Charles Albert and August III likely to be so bold. The Hapsburgs would have prepared in case the Prussians moved more forcefully if a diplomatic solution wasn't found. That means there in a better defensive position at the start.
Charles Albert may have rejected the pragmatic sanction OTL, but he does have the junior claim. August III is married to the elder daughter of the previous emporer. All of which is moot once/if Maria Theresa has a son.
However, if concessions are made to the Prussians...August and Charles Albert will probably get something however meagre it may be. Charles Albert may even stand for election and win and become HRE Emporer which may be a marginally longer reign without the stress of the W of A.S. Francis Stephen is likely to then be elected emporer just a little later...
this leaves the French free to intervene more forcefully if they wish in the War of Jenkins Ear between Spain and England. something which could easily go more favourably for the Franco Spanish forces against the English by themselves.
Louisbourg for instance can't be seriously threatened once fortified with French regulars Thus as a minimum... The French will likely make some minor gains in India at the expense of the English, both because they did OTL and without the fall of Louisbourg they won't have to return them and they are likely to have more forces to deploy to that theatre as well as the Caribbean if they are not needed in a serious conflict on the continent.
Best case they can get N.S returned ( even money here i think, this is prior to deportation remember so there are still substantial numbers of Fr. Acadians on the peninsula) and restrictions on English activities in Hudson's Bay that are competing with theirs in the St. Lawrence ( possible but less likely than the former) in addition to their gains in India. Newfoundland I think is pretty much decided at this point and there will almost certainly be action in the Caribbean as well in support of the Spanish at the very least.
AS i stated earlier its still possible to have a seven year war but it won't be recognizable to us as the financial and geo-political situation is entirely changed.
Prussia still perhaps aligned with France, or perhaps not if a realpolitik accomodation is reached between Austria and France. If nothing else a colonial war of this nature that gains them even modest gains will confirm what most in France of influence must already have known at an intuitive level and that being that they need to focus their efforts in the colonies or on the continent, but they cannot do both at the same time. That in itself could give impetus for a rapprochement with Austria.
this will almost certainly change the context of any future colonial conflict if it remains entirely that. Asw the French will be better positioned financially and strategically.
The assumption is that under August William Prussian activity will be somewhat more cautious, and less a bold stroke as it were. That may be but their is still Prince Heinrich even without Frederick he is still a very capable general in his own right and an equally capable diplomat, one not adverse to speaking his own mind on matters of policy concerning the electorate, even to Frederick himself to whom he disagreed on more than one occasion.
However Heinrich is not King, but he may be able to mold policy somewhat by force of will with respect to August William.
I suspect that instead of the bold pre-emptive strike of Frederick's which could be nixed by August you could see a vigorous Diplomatic offensive for further concessions instead. If anyone can get them Heinrich probably can as he is one of the architects of Poland-Lithuania's later first partition.
So say the Prussians settle for some minor border adjustments, a few towns, parishes or counties in the furthest reaches of lower Silesia closest to Neumark say in exchange for dropping their claims on Brieg ( The pretext OTL for Frederick's aggressive and rather bold stroke). They preserve their valuable standing army to fight another day and continue to conserve their meagre financial resources. Further more they still remain a dark horse whose potential is not yet realized by the other great powers.
The question then becomes, without a pre-emptive move by Prussia are Charles Albert and August III likely to be so bold. The Hapsburgs would have prepared in case the Prussians moved more forcefully if a diplomatic solution wasn't found. That means there in a better defensive position at the start.
Charles Albert may have rejected the pragmatic sanction OTL, but he does have the junior claim. August III is married to the elder daughter of the previous emporer. All of which is moot once/if Maria Theresa has a son.
However, if concessions are made to the Prussians...August and Charles Albert will probably get something however meagre it may be. Charles Albert may even stand for election and win and become HRE Emporer which may be a marginally longer reign without the stress of the W of A.S. Francis Stephen is likely to then be elected emporer just a little later...
this leaves the French free to intervene more forcefully if they wish in the War of Jenkins Ear between Spain and England. something which could easily go more favourably for the Franco Spanish forces against the English by themselves.
Louisbourg for instance can't be seriously threatened once fortified with French regulars Thus as a minimum... The French will likely make some minor gains in India at the expense of the English, both because they did OTL and without the fall of Louisbourg they won't have to return them and they are likely to have more forces to deploy to that theatre as well as the Caribbean if they are not needed in a serious conflict on the continent.
Best case they can get N.S returned ( even money here i think, this is prior to deportation remember so there are still substantial numbers of Fr. Acadians on the peninsula) and restrictions on English activities in Hudson's Bay that are competing with theirs in the St. Lawrence ( possible but less likely than the former) in addition to their gains in India. Newfoundland I think is pretty much decided at this point and there will almost certainly be action in the Caribbean as well in support of the Spanish at the very least.
AS i stated earlier its still possible to have a seven year war but it won't be recognizable to us as the financial and geo-political situation is entirely changed.
Prussia still perhaps aligned with France, or perhaps not if a realpolitik accomodation is reached between Austria and France. If nothing else a colonial war of this nature that gains them even modest gains will confirm what most in France of influence must already have known at an intuitive level and that being that they need to focus their efforts in the colonies or on the continent, but they cannot do both at the same time. That in itself could give impetus for a rapprochement with Austria.
this will almost certainly change the context of any future colonial conflict if it remains entirely that. Asw the French will be better positioned financially and strategically.