What if Frederick I, Holy Roman Emperor of the house of Hohenstaufen, had died and never returned to Pavia after his defeat at the Battle of Legnano, at the hands of the Lombard league?
-How will his successor negotiate with the Lombard League, and the pope?
-Can Henry the Lion, Welf Duke of Saxony, benefit from this turn of events?
-What about France? If the HRE falls to civil war earlier than OTL, will the Capetians get some operating space?
-And what about Sicily? The Crusader states? Hungary and Poland? Other parts of Europe?
 
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What if Frederick I, Holy Roman Emperor of the house of Hohenstaufen, had died and never returned to Pavia after his defeat at the Battle of Legnano, at the hands of the Lombard league?
-How will his successor negotiate with the Lombard League, and the pope?
-Can Henry the Lion, Welf Duke of Saxony, benefit from this turn of events?
-What about France? If the HRE falls to civil war earlier than OTL, will the Capetians get some operating space?
-And what about Sicily? The Crusader states? Hungary and Poland? Other parts of Europe?

Good POD. Legnano being even more of a disaster seems very possible. Barbarossa's oldest son was only eleven at the time so that leaves things on shaky footing. Henry the Lion refused to accompany Barbarossa on his campaign and thus has kept his forces intact. I'm guessing Henry would have taken advantage of the situation and inevitable seized power. I'm unsure who was capable of stopping this development, it was only out of fear of Barbarossa that Henry's men deserted him in OTL. I'm guessing Emperor Henry then makes peace with Italians and never goes on Crusade. France might be in for some trouble if he goes for an alliance with England like his son.
 
Good POD. Legnano being even more of a disaster seems very possible. Barbarossa's oldest son was only eleven at the time so that leaves things on shaky footing. Henry the Lion refused to accompany Barbarossa on his campaign and thus has kept his forces intact. I'm guessing Henry would have taken advantage of the situation and inevitable seized power. I'm unsure who was capable of stopping this development, it was only out of fear of Barbarossa that Henry's men deserted him in OTL. I'm guessing Emperor Henry then makes peace with Italians and never goes on Crusade. France might be in for some trouble if he goes for an alliance with England like his son.
Henry's estates were quite large, IIRC. Could he carve out an empire for his dynasty composed of the majority of the Kingdom of Germany, while the Hohenstaufens are reduced to a rump state in Swabia?
 
Henry's estates were quite large, IIRC. Could he carve out an empire for his dynasty composed of the majority of the Kingdom of Germany, while the Hohenstaufens are reduced to a rump state in Swabia?

That's certainly possible, we might see a more divided decentralized empire. It also occurred to me that Bohemia would probably try and break off too.
 
Can Henry marry one of his sons to Constance of Sicily, as Frederick did?

Fascinating thought as it could to have led to the Popes supporting the Hohenstaufens instead of opposing them.
 
Can Henry marry one of his sons to Constance of Sicily, as Frederick did?

Fascinating thought as it could to have led to the Popes supporting the Hohenstaufens instead of opposing them.

Henry the Lion's eldest son, Henry, is 3 years old in 1176. The only candidates I could see Constance being married off to are:

* A younger brother of King Alfonso II of Aragon (Ramon Berenguer III, Count of Provence, or Sancho)
* Geza of Hungary, the younger brother of Bela III, or, if Agnes of Antioch still dies in 1185 or even earlier, maybe even Bela III himself
* Conrad of Montferrat.
 
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Henry the Lion's eldest son, Henry, is 3 years old in 1176. The only candidates I could see Constance being married off to are:

* A younger brother of King Alfonso II of Aragon (Ramon Berenguer III, Count of Provence, or Sancho)
* Geza of Hungary, the younger brother of Bela III, or, if Agnes of Antioch still dies in 1185 or even earlier, maybe even Bela III himself
* Conrad of Montferrat.


Interesting. At least they are spared Henry VI.

I'd miss Stupor Mundi, but I suppose a son of Constance by someone else might be a similar character. And the HRE tie-in wasn't really good for the Kingdom.
 
Interesting. At least they are spared Henry VI.

I'd miss Stupor Mundi, but I suppose a son of Constance by someone else might be a similar character. And the HRE tie-in wasn't really good for the Kingdom.

In that case, maybe Conrad of Montferrat may not be the best choice. Thinking about the choices I put forward now, perhaps Hungary would be the best ally if Henry the Lion decides to make a move on Italy. Montferrat more often than not allied with the Emperor, Aragon is too small and too far away to make much difference, while Hungary is right next to Henry's lands in Bavaria.
 
Then again, at the time, Geza had fled to Austria after trying to take the Hungarian throne, and Bela was trying to get him back. In the wake of Frederick's death, either Geza would have to escape Austria to Italy (possibly unlikely) or Bela would have to give up his pursuit (also unlikely). And, IOTL, when during the reign of Joanna I of Naples, the Hungarians were seen by the Neapolitans as barbarians.

So maybe Conrad of Montferrat is the best choice after all. William II may still want peace with the Empire, and if Henry the Lion becomes Emperor, William might see the advantages of having a Ghibeline ally right near the Alps.
 
Then again, at the time, Geza had fled to Austria after trying to take the Hungarian throne, and Bela was trying to get him back. In the wake of Frederick's death, either Geza would have to escape Austria to Italy (possibly unlikely) or Bela would have to give up his pursuit (also unlikely). And, IOTL, when during the reign of Joanna I of Naples, the Hungarians were seen by the Neapolitans as barbarians.

So maybe Conrad of Montferrat is the best choice after all. William II may still want peace with the Empire, and if Henry the Lion becomes Emperor, William might see the advantages of having a Ghibeline ally right near the Alps.
For some reason (maybe just happenstance) there are no records of what Conrad of M. did in the critical years between 1072 and 1076.
He was certainly not at Legnano, but he was deeply involved in the peace negotiations afterwards, on the imperial side. However his commitment to the HRE was never again as deep as it was before, either because his father, William of M., moved closer to the north-Italian cities and reinforced the old ties with the Byzantines or because he harbored a profound dislike for the Imperial Archcancellor, Christian bishop of Mainz (the two clashed over the matter of Viterbo, which should have gone back to the Church according to the peace but refusing this asked Conrad to fight for its cause; later on, Conrad lost his position as Imperial Vicar of lower Tuscany, and was taken prisoner by Christian and forced to pay a significant ransom for his freedom. The tables were turned when Conrad managed to defeat Christian, and took him prisoner in turn).
Later on, Conrad got again closer to the Imperial party, but he was certainly an ambitious man and his true allegiance was never certain.
A marriage with Constance would certainly be likely to open a lot of interesting opportunities, given the Montferrats' traditional friendship with Constantinople, and their with the Crusades and Outremer.
 
For some reason (maybe just happenstance) there are no records of what Conrad of M. did in the critical years between 1172 and 1176.
He was certainly not at Legnano, but he was deeply involved in the peace negotiations afterwards, on the imperial side. However his commitment to the HRE was never again as deep as it was before, either because his father, William of M., moved closer to the north-Italian cities and reinforced the old ties with the Byzantines or because he harbored a profound dislike for the Imperial Archcancellor, Christian bishop of Mainz (the two clashed over the matter of Viterbo, which should have gone back to the Church according to the peace but refusing this asked Conrad to fight for its cause; later on, Conrad lost his position as Imperial Vicar of lower Tuscany, and was taken prisoner by Christian and forced to pay a significant ransom for his freedom. The tables were turned when Conrad managed to defeat Christian, and took him prisoner in turn).
Later on, Conrad got again closer to the Imperial party, but he was certainly an ambitious man and his true allegiance was never certain.
A marriage with Constance would certainly be likely to open a lot of interesting opportunities, given the Montferrats' traditional friendship with Constantinople, and their with the Crusades and Outremer.

I suppose another thing to remember are Henry of Swabia and Henry the Lion. The former had been crowned King of the Romans in 1169. And if the latter succeeds in becoming King of the Romans, if not Emperor, how long before he moves on Italy, like his son did IOTL?

Or maybe Conrad could marry Maria Porphyrogenita instead of his younger brother, Ranier. He seems to have been closer in age to Maria than Ranier was.
 
Or maybe Conrad could marry Maria Porphyrogenita instead of his younger brother, Ranier. He seems to have been closer in age to Maria than Ranier was.
Conrad married a Byzantine princess, but in 1087 and she was the sister of Isaac II Angelos, Theodora.
Isaac had invited him to Constantinople, since he needed a general he could rely upon: to make the offer more attractive, he gave Conrad the title of Caesar and the hand of his sister. Conrad performed well enough (he defeated the rebellious Alexander Branas shortly after his marriage, using as a core of his army knights and infantrymen recruited among the Latins in Constantinople), but his stay in Constantinople was pretty short and by the end of 1087 he sailed for Tyre: the official reason was given as a previous vow to participate in a crusade, but the real reasons for which he quickly found Constantinople insalubrious were probably a fall out with Isaac II (who had apparently refused to grant him all the perquisites of his title) as well as the constant harassment by the partisans of the now defunct Branas.

I would believe that the hand of the sole heiress to the kingdom of Sicily would have been more attractive for Conrad than the hand of any Byzantine princess. In any case I don't think he was not considered for the hand of Maria Porphyrogenita. Maria was offered to his brother , William, who was married anyway as Conrad was (Conrad was widowed in 1079) and ended up marrying his other brother Ranier.

A Conrad who would become king of Sicily iure uxoris would certainly still be focused on Outremer and would join the 3rd Crusade (or maybe would still be looking to establish an Aleramic principality in Outremer: after all he was the uncle of the last king of Jerusalem, and was also closely related to both the Capetien of France and the Staufen of Swabia).
 
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