WI Fred William IV accepted the Frankfurt parliament's crown?

Strangely enough, I was thinking the same thing. That is, about the train being joint Russo-German and from Berlin to Vladivostok (passing through Moscow). I mean, Germany has the same reasons ITTL to have land access to Vladivostok as Russia does OTL, and even without Kamchatka or Vladivostok, Russia still has plenty of assets in Siberia, Central Asia and the Far East.


Would the Russians give up Vladivostok so easily? Remember its the only full year port in the Russian far east (also would the Germans be interested in buying a Peninsula they can't get to for a third of the year?) and the rest of the Outer Manchurian coast isn't suitable for big harbours, and therefore leasing, rather than just giving the Germans basing rights effectively means "yeah we give up on that whole pacific presence idea".
Oh wow. Really? That's quite impressive. Still, the French navy isn't anything to sneeze at, either.


The Union had the largest Navy on the planet by 1865 (OTL).

Breaking the blockade, particularly in its later stages when the Union was getting stronger and stronger, would be a bloody affair, and likely precipitate a US-French war.

How do they go about doing this in TTL?


Number-wise it was the largest, but it had huge numbers of river craft and had much fewer big oceanic warships than the British and the French. Also although it was the largest at ~630, the gap wasn't huge as the French had 500 or so and the British just under 600, and both could build more and crew, faster than the US. With what they had in the OTL the French could easily break through at points of their choosing, and confidently beat Union subfleets, as they could concentrate forces of bigger ships whilst America has to defend a whole coastline and has no real way to hit France. Maintaining supply lines on their own is another matter, as that requires a fixed presence the Union could gather sufficient forces to defeat.
 
Last edited:
Would the Russians give up Vladivostok so easily? Remember its the only full year port in the Russian far east (also would the Germans be interested in buying a Peninsula they can't get to for a third of the year?) and the rest of the Outer Manchurian coast isn't suitable for big harbours, and therefore leasing, rather than just giving the Germans basing rights effectively means "yeah we give up on that whole pacific presence idea".

You raise a good point. Perhaps the Russians keep Vladivostok, but sell Kamchatka for significantly less than what I've suggested - after all, while it freezes over for a few months every year, Kamchatka is still host to Avacha Bay, a bay capable of handling the biggest ships in the world even today. Alternatively, the Russian lease on Vladivostok is siignificantly more expensive. Another possibility is that, in addition to Kamchatka, the Russians cede the Kurils to Germany instead of Vladivostok. The Kurils would probably be warm enough to not freeze over completely in the winter.

Additionally, there could be some sort of impetus for the Russians to want to let go of Vladivostok due to it being a liability. Say the Russo-Japanese scuffle I mentioned earlier also has an incident in Vladivostok that leaves the Russians red-faced.

You have to remember, though, ITTL, Russia is liberalising and reforming under Alexander II much faster than OTL; the Russians need funds, and Alex may get a bit desperate, especially if popular unrest begins to develop. Additionally, Germany is looking for some sort of foothold in the Far East to kick-start its colonial empire - even if this initial foothold isn't perfect. Plus, they would probably want to solidify ties with their Russian allies, and a land purchase is usually a good way to do it.
 
Last edited:

General Zod

Banned
You raise a good point. Perhaps the Russians keep Vladivostok, but sell Kamchatka for significantly less than what I've suggested - after all, while it freezes over for a few months every year, Kamchatka is still host to Avacha Bay, a bay capable of handling the biggest ships in the world even today. Alternatively, the Russian lease on Vladivostok is siignificantly more expensive. Another possibility is that, in addition to Kamchatka, the Russians cede the Kurils to Germany instead of Vladivostok. The Kurils would probably be warm enough to not freeze over completely in the winter.

Additionally, there could be some sort of impetus for the Russians to want to let go of Vladivostok due to it being a liability. Say the Russo-Japanese scuffle I mentioned earlier also has an incident in Vladivostok that leaves the Russians red-faced.

You have to remember, though, ITTL, Russia is liberalising and reforming under Alexander II much faster than OTL; the Russians need funds, and Alex may get a bit desperate, especially if popular unrest begins to develop. Additionally, Germany is looking for some sort of foothold in the Far East to kick-start its colonial empire - even if this initial foothold isn't perfect. Plus, they would probably want to solidify ties with their Russian allies, and a land purchase is usually a good way to do it.

All in all, it might be a good thing to reconsider whether to revise that part of the TL and restrict the actual land purchase to Kamchatka and the Kurils, plus basing rights for the Germans in Vladivostok. This would still give Germany a valuable strategic asset in the Far East, without forcing the Russians to give up all their power projection in the area.
 
All in all, it might be a good thing to reconsider whether to revise that part of the TL and restrict the actual land purchase to Kamchatka and the Kurils, plus basing rights for the Germans in Vladivostok. This would still give Germany a valuable strategic asset in the Far East, without forcing the Russians to give up all their power projection in the area.

Good idea.
 
I've been thinking about how this is starting to play out. Would it be possible for Britain and France to turn into dictatorships while Italy, Russia and Germany remain stable democracies? With a major loss for the Anglo-French and their allies quite likely in any future world war, I could imagine some sort of fascist-like authority emerging in Britain or France to establish scapegoats and bolster nationalism. It'd be a fascinating role reversal.
 
Thinking of doing some technological divergence in the timeline, now, rather than political squabbling or wars. Hmm, I've also been thinking of posting a new topic and reposting the more refined portions of my timeline thus far, to make it more accessable. I've tried to go for a non-ASB quasi-steampunk feel here.

Since a lot of this timeline will be occuring 20 years or more after the POD, I might be able to introduce my first butterflied historical figures - a British engineering prodigy born post PoD, who acts as a counterbalance to fast German technological development and becomes a prominent rival of the German automobile inventor and engineering prodigy Karl Benz - this could also form part of a broader technological rivalry between steam and internal combustion technology.

I might also have this British fellow incorporate elements of mass-production in his vehicle manufacture - after all, Henry Ford's likely to get butterflied since he was born in 1863 (well after the PoD), and having his genius on the side of the GRI-friendly Americans makes things just a bit too unfair for the Brits and French.

Again, as always, feel free to tell me if I've screwed up horribly.

...

After the two defining wars for Germany and Italy in the 1860s - the American Civil War and the Luxembourg War, three technologies began to develop at a quick pace - the steam engine, the firearm and the dirigible. All three of these would come to define the most horrific event of the first ten years of the 20th century - an event historians would later refer to as the "First World War".

In 1865, during the American Civil War, a young German military officer by the name of Ferdinand von Zeppelin was deployed to an American aeronautic surveillance unit as part of Germany's deployment to aid the Union against the French-backed Confederate forces. He developed a strong interest in ballooning technology and its potential military and civilian applications.

In 1867, during the last year of the conflict, a Minié ball fired from a French rifle found Zeppelin's left leg. While he recovered in hospital, Zeppelin took this time to work on his concepts for a guidable balloon. When he was informed that his injury was so grievous as to preclude him from re-entering military service, he accepted his honourable discharge.

Meanwhile, during the Luxembourg War, the French, seeing the success of the Needle Gun in the Balkan War and the American Civil War, developed their own breech-loading rifle, the Chassepot. With double the range and a wounding capability which put the earlier Minié rifles to shame, the Germans were severely outclassed - victory for the French in the Luxembourg may have been possible if the Chassepot had been in wider use by the time of the war.

In 1867, the German government was forced to re-adapt their design into something more powerful, longer-ranged and modern. They started a competition amongst the various weapons firms not only in the German empire itself (such as Dreyse and Steyr-Mannilicher), but also amongst firms in the various nations friendly to German interests - Italy, Romania, Russia, the United States and Luxembourg, amongst others. The objective was to either improve the Needle Gun design, or develop an original design that was similar but superior.

Zeppelin, after his discharge, spent the next 10 months in relative seclusion, recovering physically as well as psychologically from the wound which forced his early retirement. Eventually, he decided to move to the United States to study aeronautics. He met up with one of his American superiors from the civil war, professor Thaddeus Lowe. Together, they worked on many of the problems surrounding the development of guidable balloons.

Back in Germany, the incredible success of the steam locomotives in crushing the French in the Luxembourg War leads to the military and private sectors around the globe postulating about the potential of land-based steam vehicles which could move quickly and carry large payloads without being vulnerable to the dangers of railroad sabotage or wear-and-tear. Whilst many steam-powered land vehicles had been in the making since the 18th century, it was only now that people were willing to take the concept seriously.

The English, fearful of the growing threat of the Berlin Treaty bloc, were amongst the most enthusiastic supporters for the development of rail-free steam locomotive technology. A young engineering prodigy and inventor, William Whitney, from Northumberland in England (born March 17, 1848), has been tinkering with everything mechanical since he was a child. He passed the entrance exam for the mechanical engineering course at Oxford University at the age of 14. In 1868, at the age of 20, he had graduated and started his own workshop, where he continued to work on steam cars and quadricycles.

By 1870, the German needle rifle replacement competition was reaching its conclusion. Waffenfabrik von Dreyse, having secured examples of modern Union firearms for research and study during the American Civil War, were intrigued by the rim-fire Henry Model 1860, as well as the experimental center-fire rifles such as the Springfield Model 1866, chambered in .50-70.

Dreyse, in their efforts to develop a rifle, decided to adapt their older Needle Gun rather than go with an all-new design. Nevertheless, the rifle was eventually remade from the ground up: its long firing needle reduced to a short stub, its firing chamber equipped with ejectors and reforged to accomodate centerfire cartridge ammunition, its barrel narrowed to accomodate narrow, round-nosed 10mm bullets. By the time it was done, the "needle gun" had become something completely different - the Dreyse bolt repeater, or Dreyse M1870.

Incorporating elements such as the Henry's tube-fed magazine (capable of holding ten rounds), the Springfield's firing chamber and ammunition design, as well as the classic Dreyse locking bolt, the M1870 became the most advanced rifle in military service in the world upon its adoption by the German Army in 1871.

Over in England, William Whitney and his workshop-turned factory have gained widespread attention after he began selling affordable (relatively speaking) steam cars to upper and upper-middle-class residents in 1871. A new type of boiler he had developed, a smaller, simpler and more efficient version of the vertical-tube boilers used by the narrow-gauge rail locomotives in the Welsh slate mines since the 1860s, was key to the ability to make the personal steam vehicle workable. It was a six-wheeled vehicle that used solid vulcanised rubber tyres, and could carrry ten people. On flat ground, it had a cruising speed of 18 kilometres an hour.

However, the most interesting innovation was in the production of this steam vehicle. He developed a method he called "flow-on manufacture", where each worker was assigned an individual role making or assembling standardised components before passing on the piece to the next person on the assembly floor, who in turn had their own individual role. Production was made cheaper, quicker and more efficient. For the first time, people outside the aristocracy and upper-class could have their own horseless vehicles.

Back in America, Ferdinand von Zeppelin, under the tutelage of Thaddeus Lowe, developed and matured his dirigible concepts quickly, and by 1871 his rough conceptual sketches had been transformed into detailed designs. They were designed to use hydrogen, a gas which he and his mentor had spent quite a while studying and assessing. Whilst its inflammability was a problem, the main obstacle was the inability to synthesise the thousands upon thousands of gallons required to fill a single one of Zeppelin's ship designs.

In 1872, they make a breakthrough. They had developed the "water gas process", a technique through which massive quantities of hydrogen could be synthesised for wide-scale commercial or public use. Zeppelin begins construction of the first of a series of miniature-scale models as proofs-of-concept. The first successful one, which he patents in 1873, is a mere toy, a metre long football-shaped rigid-frame balloon with a spring-loaded propellor; nonetheless, it works perfectly.

Back in Britain, the Hexamotive, or Hexadic Locomotive, is gaining popularity in the early seventies. Whitney Engines Co. is putting out 200 cars a year as of 1874 - a large number, but still not enough to meet the ever increasing demand from both the civil and military markets. It would not be until 1875, when Whitney would hear of the German development of assembly-line techniques with their new M1870 rifles, and how parts were moved along the line using a automated pulley system, that this problem would be resolved. Production jumped to 2500 units per annum by 1876.

Also in 1876, Zeppelin, having finished his studies abroad, returns to Germany. He sets about developing a larger-scale model, dipping into his personal funds as well as asking for donations. In 1877, he travels to Berlin, ready to unveil his model to the Kaiser, the military chiefs and to civil interests. He impresses the crowd by flying his miniature rigid airship, a mere 75 metres long and capable of carrying a usable payload of just over two tonnes, over the nearby buildings before landing in the field in front of where the crowd is waiting. Three men on the ground, some of Zeppelin's research assistants, help with mooring the craft as it lands.

Zeppelin tells the crowd that his full scale models, hundreds of metres long, would be capable of speeds over thirty kilometres an hour and have a usable payload of close to ten tonnes. He suggests the ideas of the Zeppelin airships supplanting ocean liners for trans-Atlantic voyages or transporting troops over the most hostile terrain. He also makes note of the French, Germany's arch-rival, and their development of similar dirigible technology by the French in the wake of the Luxembourg War. Whilst the interest of the various parties present is piqued, it would not be until 1879 when he would receive funding from the German military to develop large cargo airships.

...

Too ASB? Or is this actually believable? Any tech geniuses out there?
progress.gif
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=2377016
 
So, I've been working on the Scramble for Africa section of the timeline. Do you think Germany would be able to get a hold of a contiguous chain of territories across Africa, from Cameroon to Tanzania, considering that Germany has emerged as a colonial power sooner and thus can edge out the Belgians and possibly even the French (to a degree)? This would also have the effect of screwing up any British ambitions of having a north-south overland route for railways or communication lines.
 

General Zod

Banned
So, I've been working on the Scramble for Africa section of the timeline. Do you think Germany would be able to get a hold of a contiguous chain of territories across Africa, from Cameroon to Tanzania, considering that Germany has emerged as a colonial power sooner and thus can edge out the Belgians and possibly even the French (to a degree)? This would also have the effect of screwing up any British ambitions of having a north-south overland route for railways or communication lines.

Personally I'm always been strongly persuaded that the true strategic vector of German colonial expansion in Africa, if they had been a relatively free hand (such as from an head start) was a north-south one alongside the western coast of the continent: ie. Togo-Benin-Nigeria-Camerun-Middle Congo-Upper Congo-Gabon-Northern Rhodesia-South West Africa, which would have netted them many of the most valuable lands in the continent. Tanganyka was an historical accident, the effect of Germany playing diplomatic mind games with Britain to bring them to an alliance in a roundabout way (which botched) by messing wih their own north-south axis. Tanganyka was amongst the most resource-poor areas of the continent, it is highly dubious that Germany would have tried to get it if the above gets butterflied by a GRI alliance.
 
It depends on who has control of German foreign policy. Von Bismarck wanted colonies as a sop to public opinion, and to try to put a wedge between Friedrich III and the British. The ministers under Wilhelm II wanted colonies as a way to make them enough of a threat to Britain to force the British to co-opt them into the long-sought Anglo-German Alliance, as well as for that rather ill thought out Weltpolitik.
 
Considering that in OTL a lot of France's colonies only came into existence after the Franco-Prussian War, would it be possible for Germany to try and establish a continuous chain of territories from Namibia to Morocco? It's highly likely they'd be unsuccessful if the French started expanding into other African territories, but it could be one of Germany's long term goals - a parallel and rival to England's "Cape to Cairo" concept (especially if the Germans and Italians were successful against the French in any upcoming World Wars, where the French may be forced to cede their colonies to the victorious powers, much like in OTL where Germany ceded most of their colonies to Britain).
 

General Zod

Banned
Considering that in OTL a lot of France's colonies only came into existence after the Franco-Prussian War, would it be possible for Germany to try and establish a continuous chain of territories from Namibia to Morocco? It's highly likely they'd be unsuccessful if the French started expanding into other African territories, but it could be one of Germany's long term goals - a parallel and rival to England's "Cape to Cairo" concept (especially if the Germans and Italians were successful against the French in any upcoming World Wars, where the French may be forced to cede their colonies to the victorious powers, much like in OTL where Germany ceded most of their colonies to Britain).

It can be surely be one of their long term main colonial goals. Quite probably was so even IOTL, but they could acknowledge it only partially, due to the confounding effect of bungled attempts to woo Britain, which shall not be a factor here. They are unlikely to be entirely successful before the WW, but it shall be fully realized if they won them.
 
Back to good-old fashioned politics. Now, I've only recently started researching the Scramble for Africa, so a lot of this stuff might not make sense. Oh well..

...

[FONT=&quot]With the French communist government, the “Parisian Collective” as it became known to history, overthrown and order restored, the socialist movement is split into two camps – the moderates, who go on to influence the main left-leaning political parties in France, and the radicals, the revolutionary socialists (including former anarchists) who operate in a more underground manner. Over the next 30 years after the collapse of the Parisian Collective, the latter group will be blamed for a large number of small-scale terrorist attacks carried out in France, mainly in Paris.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The British are maintaining a strong hold on their overseas territories during this time, expanding their claims in Africa and moving westward into Canada, eventually reaching the Alaska border. Germany is hard at work carving out its own colonial empire as well. Seeking to exploit the massive resources and manpower of Sub-Saharan Africa, whilst at the same time wishing to establish a method of easy overland transport to the Mediterranean, the Germans make it their long-term goal to seize the whole western coast of Africa, from Namibia to Morocco, then establish permanent rail and telecommunications links linking the whole coast together.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Britain’s main colonial priority was to establish overland railroads and communication lines between their colonies in Egypt and those in South Africa – this required a contiguous line of territories under British control or the control of nations friendly to Britain. They achieved this colonial goal with relative ease, as Germany, not wishing to antagonize Britain and concerning itself more with its long-term goals on the continent, stayed out of eastern Africa, instead focusing on the west coast.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Italy remained out of Africa for the most part, but did, with the support of Germany, annex Tunisia and Libya after Tunisia had gone bankrupt in 1870. The French, still smarting from diplomatic and military defeats at the hands of Italy and Germany, were not willing to contest these claims. Italy administered the lands as a single entity, the “Carthaginian Territory”, named both for the colony’s administrative capital and for the ancient North African empire of the same name.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Competition in the Pacific also heats up. With control of Kamchatka and the Russian Kurils, Germany attempts an island-hopping campaign to take the whole Kuril island chain, beginning in April of 1879. This sets off a war with the Japanese Empire, incensed by German expansionism into what it saw as home territory. With early Zeppelin aircraft at their disposal for surveillance and small-scale resupply, as well as a modern, powerful, repeating rifle, the Germans had an advantage. However, their operations were brought to a halt with the onset of winter. The Germans were cut off from their ports in Petrovpavlovsk-Kamchatsky, hindering the war efforts. Unable to sustain the war effort from Vladivostok alone, this forced a ceasefire by December, followed by a peace agreement:[/FONT]

·[FONT=&quot]The Kuril Archipelago would be ceded to Germany – with the exception of the three southernmost major islands: Kunashir, Iturup and Shikotan.[/FONT]
·[FONT=&quot]The entire Kuril chain would be demilitarized to serve as a buffer between German Siberia and mainland Japan.[/FONT]
·[FONT=&quot]The Germans would have fishing rights in the waters of the three southernmost Kurils.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The Germans, wary of the fact they could not fight a sustained war at this time due to the logistical issues involved, and Japan, recognizing the superiority of German military strength and technology, were able to agree to these terms without too much trouble. Overall, though, the German-Japanese war of 1879 was a victory for Germany.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The war with Japan showed the need for territories in more equatorial regions in the Pacific. The first of these acquisitions was in New Guinea, with the annexation of the eastern half of the island. The Germans set up their first formal settlement roughly on the site of OTL Port Moresby.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]By 1884, the great powers of Europe have each gained an impressive empire and sphere of influence. The British have a contiguous strip of territories from South Africa to Egypt, along which they have begun to construct railroads and communication lines, as part of the Cape to Cairo scheme – promoted by an even more fervent than OTL (due to post-1848 butterflies) Cecil Rhodes. Whilst they have no claim to New Guinea, their hegemony over the Australian and New Zealand territories remains uncontested. Their control over Canada, India and their many European islands and Southeast Asian claims remains unaffected.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The French, whilst thwarted in their expansion eastward into Tunisia, begin to establish colonies west and southwards from their territory of Algeria. They seize Morocco and the Western Sahara, as well as Mauritania, Niger and Mali; the French essentially dominate the northwest of the continent by this time.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]In addition to Germany’s Pacific holdings of the Bismarck Archipelago, German New Guinea, Formosa, Kamchatka and most of the Kurils, Germany has control of most of Africa’s western coast, stretching from Senegal in the north to Namibia in the south. Whilst the Germans have an ambition to establish a continuous string of colonies from Namibia to Morocco, as well as plans to establish telecommunication and railroad lines from south to north, this is frustrated by French territorial claims in the Saharan portions of the planned route.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Italy has the Carthaginian Territories as its main overseas effort, as well as control over most of the Horn of Africa in addition to a single Pacific base in Hainan, but has otherwise disregarded colonialism – their efforts have instead become focused on the Balkans, exercising their influence in Albania and Montenegro in an attempt to further stoke nationalist sentiment and destabilize the Ottoman-dominated Balkans. The Russians, also mostly free from colonial ambitions, chose to exercise their influence in Bulgaria, while the Germans, though occupied with colonial efforts, manages to make an effort to draw in Romania – the collective aim is the maximum destabilization of Ottoman interests in the Balkans and, eventually, the elimination of all Ottoman control on European soil.[/FONT]

...

My plan for the Ottoman Empire is for them to survive to the modern day in a reduced form, but be wiped clean off of Europe, with Constantinople becoming a Russian exclave or Bulgarian territory. They'd still be the dominant force in the Middle East, even up to ITTL 2000. Is this realistic?
 
Also, I just realised something. The Meiji Restoration occured primarily because German advisors were willing to come over and help modernise the nation. With Germany being a military antagonist to Japan ITTL, what would happen? Would France or Britain, wishing to establish Japan as a powerful ally, step in to help instead?
 

General Zod

Banned
Also, I just realised something. The Meiji Restoration occured primarily because German advisors were willing to come over and help modernise the nation. With Germany being a military antagonist to Japan ITTL, what would happen? Would France or Britain, wishing to establish Japan as a powerful ally, step in to help instead?

Yes, why not ? Would be a useful strategic foil.
 
Another question I've been bouncing around my head recently is in regards to the democratic system of government established in the wake of the 1848 revolutions. ITTL, Germany is a democratic consitutional monarchy, not unlike the United Kingdom. However, this means that people like Bismarck had to be elected to the post of Chancellor, rather than just being appointed by the Emperor. The idea of this happening isn't exactly impossible (especially if the Emperor decides to get involved with politics and publicly endorse Bismarck as a political candidate), but if the German people want to keep up with France and Britain in the Scrambe for Africa and start colonising everything with so much as a speck of gold dust present, and Bismarck wants to keep things focused on Germany's position in Europe, I could see him getting booted out come election time. Who would replace him?
 
Last edited:
Top