WI Fred William IV accepted the Frankfurt parliament's crown?

Now, I know this would take a completely different Frederick William IV to happen - his conservative leanings wouldn't allow him to side with revolutionaries and accept their "mud and dirt" crown.

So, let's say there's an earlier point of divergence - say, 1795. A completely different FW IV could have been born. One who was a nationalist romanticist who yearned for a unified, Prussian-led German state, rather than the conservative romantic we all know and love who rejected the concept outright in his teens and twenties, perhaps? Anyway, if he accepted that crown in 1849, rather than dooming the whole movement as he did in OTL, I'm thinking he would have nearly guaranteed the survival of the Frankfurt Parliament.

So, a German-nationalist and somewhat-democratic (but still a bit biased to the Junkers and aristocracy) Prussia starts annexing some of the smaller German nation-states. The liberal west and south joins the fold easily, while a few other sections of the country take a bit more "encouragement". Regardless, by 1858, the Austrians, who had previously been at the head of the German Confederation, go to war with Prussia over the matter. The Prussians defeat the Austrians, who in turn join with Hungary later on in the year, forming Austria-Hungary.

...

Does this sound realistic so far? I was hoping to take this timeline all the way to 1895, but I need to know if the beginning is plausible before I can be confident in writing beyond it. I'm planning on working in elements such as a Prussian/Russian alliance, an independent CSA, Alaska remaining a Russian territory and the early development of dirigible technology. This is my first alternate timeline attempt, by the way. Be gentle.;)

EDIT: Corrected PoD from 1895 to 1795.
 
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You mean 1795, not 1895.
Well, normally, I'd say it's improbable. But if you change, as you say in the POD, how Frederick William thinks, then you could have a Prussian-led liberal nationalist Germany in 1849. If, and only if, Bavaria and Wurttemberg go along with the plan. Which may or may not happen; they did it in 1871 because they saw how easily Prussia had knocked the shit out of hitherto-dominant Austria, and beaten them as well, in 1866. You'd have to see a successful 1848-9 war with Denmark and the reeling-in of Schleswig.
You'd have a united, liberal nationalist Germany with Prussian dominance, but not as much dominance as they had in 1871 onwards. So, likely, a less militaristic nationalist Germany too. You wouldn't need Prussia annexing small German states (that would actually turn them off from unification with Prussia).

But, a war with Austria is not incredibly likely. If a Prussian-led Empire of the Germans was founded, Austria would by definition be out of the game. They'd be more concerned with keeping the Hungarian rebels and Austrian rioters down in 1848-50, and keeping the Austrian Empire together afterwards.
 
You mean 1795, not 1895.
...you could have a Prussian-led liberal nationalist Germany in 1849. If, and only if, Bavaria and Wurttemberg go along with the plan. Which may or may not happen; they did it in 1871 because they saw how easily Prussia had knocked the shit out of hitherto-dominant Austria, and beaten them as well, in 1866. You'd have to see a successful 1848-9 war with Denmark and the reeling-in of Schleswig.

So, what you're saying is that, in OTL, Bavaria and Wuttemberg only joined the German Empire after seeing the dominance of Prussian military might, and that, if I want Bavaria and Wuttemberg to join up with my timeline's new unified Germany, I'll have to substitute the Danish in the First Schleswig War for the Austrians as my demonstrative punching bag?
 
Pretty much, yeah.
Which isn't necessarily impossible. The only reason it failed OTL was because the Frankfurt Parliament fell in on itself when Frederick William refused to support it, and Prussia and Hanover refused to go to war with Denmark over the wants and wills of a parliament that suddenly lacked a spine. After Prussia bugged out, everyone else bugged out.

If you have the offer of the Crown and the decision to form a constitutional parliamentary system occur about a month or two earlier, and Frederick William become Emperor, then you'll have the south on-board at least at first. To keep the deep south of Germany in the game, Prussia has to prove its ability to steer the ship, and the Schleswig Crisis is the perfect opportunity. The suddenly-in-existence Germany has the manpower and the leadership to do it.
 
Pretty much, yeah.
Which isn't necessarily impossible. The only reason it failed OTL was because the Frankfurt Parliament fell in on itself when Frederick William refused to support it, and Prussia and Hanover refused to go to war with Denmark over the wants and wills of a parliament that suddenly lacked a spine. After Prussia bugged out, everyone else bugged out.

If you have the offer of the Crown and the decision to form a constitutional parliamentary system occur about a month or two earlier, and Frederick William become Emperor, then you'll have the south on-board at least at first. To keep the deep south of Germany in the game, Prussia has to prove its ability to steer the ship, and the Schleswig Crisis is the perfect opportunity. The suddenly-in-existence Germany has the manpower and the leadership to do it.

Very interesting. This timeline is starting to sound even better than what I originally had planned.
 
Not likely, unless you butterfly away more than Fred. There were internal and external obstacles. Internally, the Junkers. The Junkers, at least at that point, were never really monarchist as much as aristocratic. They supported the Crown because it supported their privileges, but if the Crown abandoned them, a staatsrech and enthronement of a puppet more conservative than your Fred was not out of question. More importantly, externally, there loomed Austria, and behind Austria stood the Gendarme of Europe, Czar Nicholas. The Shame of Olmutz was precisely because Prussia at that time lacked the military power to stand up to Russia. Swarzenburg would be in charge or soon in charge, and he was Austria's best statesman after Matternich (in fact, German history might have been different had Swarzenburg lived to duel with Bismarck). In 1849, the Austrian army was still formidable, probably more formidable than the Prussian army (Prussian army wasn't very good until Moltke's reforms in 1857 and Roon's reforms in the 1860's). Also, Hungary wound down by 1849, Austria achieved smashing victories in Italy under the best Austrian general of the 19th century, Radetsky. And above all, there was Czar Nicholas and his inflexible reactionary policies. Unless a miracle occurs, Prussia (even with the rest of German states backing Fred) would be defeated by a Russo-Austrian coalition and maybe even partitioned between the two.
 
The just have the Hungarian insurrection last about a year longer, and Russian operations get tied up there; and, have the Italian theatre stay heated, maybe with Radetzky having a stroke or something early in 1848. It's not that hard; he was in his 80's at the time. If Charles Felix remained alive, maybe he'd able to galvanise Italian nationalists in 1848 into forming a coalition against Austria; though not necessarily beating them, they'd definitely be able to tie them up there for a while.
While that's going on, a Prussian-led war in Schleswig could bind the new Germany together. Even Russia can't deal with Hungarian rebels and a united Germany at the same time, and probably won't worry about it too much.

The only really problematic obstacle, that can't just be fluttered away is the Prussian landed aristocracy, the Junkers. Perhaps if Frederick William promises to maintain their rights in Prussia, because they are a fundamentally Prussian system, they'll be content; not happy, but content enough to let him do what he wants in the rest of Germany. It's not like the Junkers were necessarily be looking to expand into central and southern Germany; they were content to conserve their rights and powers in Prussia only.
 
The just have the Hungarian insurrection last about a year longer, and Russian operations get tied up there; and, have the Italian theatre stay heated, maybe with Radetzky having a stroke or something early in 1848. It's not that hard; he was in his 80's at the time. If Charles Felix remained alive, maybe he'd able to galvanise Italian nationalists in 1848 into forming a coalition against Austria; though not necessarily beating them, they'd definitely be able to tie them up there for a while.
While that's going on, a Prussian-led war in Schleswig could bind the new Germany together. Even Russia can't deal with Hungarian rebels and a united Germany at the same time, and probably won't worry about it too much.
The king of Sardinia is Charles Albert; Charles Felix died in 1831.
Beside this nitpick, you make sense: however, I do believe that the key would be Hungary deciding to go into revolt in March or April 1848, and recalling the Hungarian regiments. This would make the Austrian poition in Italy untenable, coupled with a revolt in Vienna (the emperor had to leave the city and move to Tyrol) and another one in Prague.


The only really problematic obstacle, that can't just be fluttered away is the Prussian landed aristocracy, the Junkers. Perhaps if Frederick William promises to maintain their rights in Prussia, because they are a fundamentally Prussian system, they'll be content; not happy, but content enough to let him do what he wants in the rest of Germany. It's not like the Junkers were necessarily be looking to expand into central and southern Germany; they were content to conserve their rights and powers in Prussia only.
This is a very good point: the Junkers will not give in to a constitutional kingdom (or empire) without a fight. What the Frankfurt parliament offers would be anathema to them.

I wonder what would have happened if the Frankfurt delegates had made a jump forward, and took a leave from the ARW: instead of offering the imperial crown of Germany to the Prussian king, the parliament votes for a German Confederation to be established, on similar lines to USA (and with the obvious major exception that the constituent states may keep their existing form of government, provided that it accepts the Confederal Constitution). I'm not sure if it would have worked, but it certainly would be a very bold move, and even the Czechs in Prague might be convinced.
 
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The king of Sardinia is Charles Albert; Charles Felix died in 1831.
You know what I meant. I knew what I meant. Whatever.

Beside this nitpick, you make sense: however, I do believe that the key would be Hungary deciding to go into revolt in March or April 1848, and recalling the Hungarian regiments. This would make the Austrian position in Italy untenable, coupled with a revolt in Vienna (the emperor had to leave the city and move to Tyrol) and another one in Prague.
Combine them at the same time, and Austria's just stuck in a bind.
The only way it could fall even more in their favour is if Nicholas finds himself ill or otherwise bedridden during the events 1848, so the Russian government goes unsteered and unable to decide what to do. I mean, far weirder coincidences have happened.

This is a very good point: the Junkers will not give in to a constitutional kingdom (or empire) without a fight. What the Frankfurt parliament offers would be anathema to them.
Unless, as said, the King says he will maintain their rights in Prussia. The Junkers were mostly concerned about their existing rights and privileges; the concept of expanding them outside of Prussia never really occurred to them.

I wonder what would have happened if the Frankfurt delegates had made a jump forward, and took a leave from the ARW: instead of offering the imperial crown of Germany to the Prussian king, the parliament votes for a German Confederation to be established, on similar lines to USA (and with the obvious major exception that the constituent states may keep their existing form of government, provided that it accepts the Confederal Constitution). I'm not sure if it would have worked, but it certainly would be a very bold move, and even the Czechs in Prague might be convinced.

They already had that. That's what the German Confederation was from 1815 to 1866- a confederal body of autonomous sovereign states with the Austrian Emperor as its titular President. The Frankfurt Parliament was basically going to give it a central legislature with a central Chancellor and change the Presidency to an Imperial title, in the hands of Prussia, thus strengthening the central administration of the German Confederation.

IOTL, it failed, and Austria re-asserted its presidency of the German Confederation until 1866, when the German Confederation was dissolved, and Prussia formed the North German Federation along with most of the northern German states, which evolved into the German Empire in 1870-71. But, ITTL, I suppose they would establish a German legislature, a German government, and a German Emperor, but leave everything else alone so as to keep the middle states on board.
 
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They already had that. That's what the German Confederation was from 1815 to 1866- a confederal body of autonomous sovereign states with the Austrian Emperor as its titular President. The Frankfurt Parliament was basically going to give it a central legislature with a central Chancellor and change the Presidency to an Imperial title, in the hands of Prussia, thus strengthening the central administration of the German Confederation.

IOTL, it failed, and Austria re-asserted its presidency of the German Confederation until 1866, when the German Confederation was dissolved, and Prussia formed the North German Federation along with most of the northern German states, which evolved into the German Empire in 1870-71. But, ITTL, I suppose they would establish a German legislature, a German government, and a German Emperor, but leave everything else alone so as to keep the middle states on board.

I know that: the point is that the Frankfurt parliament would sponsor quite a different confederation: one with a constitution and elected houses, not to mention a common currency and a single foreign policy, decided at federal level. It would not be so easy, but it could start leaving outside Prussia and and assuming that the regime in Austria is ousted by the revolution, and evolve from there.
 
Okay, I've tried to rework my original post based on what you guys have told me so far. Tell me what you think:

...

Due to a PoD at 1795, a completely different FW IV is born - a nationalist romanticist who yearns for a unified, Prussian-led German state. This FW IV goes on to accept the German crown in 1849. However, before taking the crown, FW IV obtains a few concessions from the Frankfurt Parliament - most importantly, he ensures the Junkers' land rights will be maintained within Prussia for the time being. This serves to appease the Junkers, solidifying the Frankfurt parliament and his place as the first German emperor.

As the Frankfurt Parliament is being established, the First Schleswig War breaks out. The Prussians move to support the Schleswig-Holsteinian forces. FW IV's acceptance of the German crown from the Frankfurt Parliament comes at a critical point in the war, and other German countries begin to join with Prussia in the war against Denmark. This, combined with solid Prussian leadership, turns the tide of the war. After seeing the solid performance of the Prussian-led German forces against Denmark, Württemberg and the Bavarians also decide to join forces with this new German state.

Meanwhile, Nicholas I of Russia comes down with a nasty case of tuberculosis in mid-1848, leaving him bedridden for the next two years. This leaves the Russian empire unsteered and indecisive, and prevents many of the reactionary decisions and actions of the Russians in OTL, such as pressuring the Prussians over Schleswig-Holstein or intervening in Hungary, from taking place. The inability of the Russians to intervene in Hungary also serves to tie up Austrian resources.

...

Does that sound about right, or have I misinterpreted something?
 

General Zod

Banned
Okay, I've tried to rework my original post based on what you guys have told me so far. Tell me what you think:

...

Due to a PoD at 1795, a completely different FW IV is born - a nationalist romanticist who yearns for a unified, Prussian-led German state. This FW IV goes on to accept the German crown in 1849. However, before taking the crown, FW IV obtains a few concessions from the Frankfurt Parliament - most importantly, he ensures the Junkers' land rights will be maintained within Prussia for the time being. This serves to appease the Junkers, solidifying the Frankfurt parliament and his place as the first German emperor.

As the Frankfurt Parliament is being established, the First Schleswig War breaks out. The Prussians move to support the Schleswig-Holsteinian forces. FW IV's acceptance of the German crown from the Frankfurt Parliament comes at a critical point in the war, and other German countries begin to join with Prussia in the war against Denmark. This, combined with solid Prussian leadership, turns the tide of the war. After seeing the solid performance of the Prussian-led German forces against Denmark, Württemberg and the Bavarians also decide to join forces with this new German state.

Meanwhile, Nicholas I of Russia comes down with a nasty case of tuberculosis in mid-1848, leaving him bedridden for the next two years. This leaves the Russian empire unsteered and indecisive, and prevents many of the reactionary decisions and actions of the Russians in OTL, such as pressuring the Prussians over Schleswig-Holstein or intervening in Hungary, from taking place. The inability of the Russians to intervene in Hungary also serves to tie up Austrian resources.

...

Does that sound about right, or have I misinterpreted something?

It seems mostly fine, but you still need to clarify what you mean to do with Austria, Hungary, and Italy. And France/Russia, in the long term.

Do you wish this German unification to propel Italian one, too, or not (this united Italy would be a rather useful ally to Fred against comebacks from France and Austria) ? If yes, you need Radetsky to fail spectacularly in Italy: either he meets an untimely death, or the Hungarian diet withdraws Hungarian regiments early, so Charles Albert wins a decisive victory at Custoza, and forces Austria to cede Lombardy and Venetia, maybe even Trento. Nationalistic enthusiasm from such a victory sweeps the other Italian states, and their princes are forced to agree on a federal united Italy (akin to federal united Germany) lead by the king of Sardinia-Piedmont as King of Italy.

Moreover, if Russia is paralyzed for a couple years (in addition to the Tsar's health problems, I would give them some extra distraction: say the OTL 1831 Polish insurrection is delayed to 1848 ITTL), and Austria is getting blows from all directions, being expelled from Germany and Italy, as well as getting insurrections in Hungary and Vienna, there is a very good chance that Hungary might well succeed to break out for good in 1849. Moreover, the formation of this German Empire is not going to be unnoticed by German nationalists within Austria. A renewed liberal-nationalist German insurrection in Vienna and Prague and the downfall of the Habsburg (their resources would be terribly stretched by now) are entirely plausible and likely, or them being forced to let Hungary go or give it a personal union, and let Austria-Bohemia enter the Empire as a member state. Does all of this happen to Austria, or not ?

And even admitting that Austria somehow manages to to deal with all its problems with Austrian, Hungarian, and Italian nationalists with its own resources alone, and no Russian help (possible, but hardly likely), and they go on and lose a war later with Germany, what are they going to lose ? Differently from 1866, German unification is already a fact, so that can't be the war booty for Prussia. The Habsburg need to lose a substantial part of their own lands. The total breakup of their empire, with Austria-Bohemia annexed to Germany and the rest being partitioned with Russia, Italy (if its exists, but even if it does not yet, Habsburg defeat is going to kick it into being), and a separate Hungary, seems the only plausible outcome. Even admitting Germany gets a terminal case of stupidity and lets Austria stay separate, at the very least they should annex Bohemia-Moravia.

Of course, the big issue in all of that is what France is doing. By the time Russia gets its act in order, they are going to make themselves confortable with the German Empire. They really don't have such a strategic stake in keeping Germany disunited, their geopolitical aims go South, not West, and past the initial shock, a Prussian-led German Empire is not so problematic to Russian legitimist eyes. However, France does. They are going to be paralyzed by revolution and politicla instability up to ealry-mid 1849, but afterwards, they are free to act. They are surely going to pick a fight with united Germany if it annexes Austria and Bohemia and/or it triggers the unification of Italy without French or worse with German sponsorship, only slightly less likely if they do not. This TL is going to see a Franco-Austrian alliance, almost surely. Germany is going to need allies to deal with the Paris-Vienna bloc. Italy and Russia seem good prospects. This Germany is going to need courting Russia (and prop up Italy as a satellite) to balance its natural enemies. They can easily win St. Petersburg over, if they support its expansion in the Balkans. But this shall antagonize Britain. How is all of this going to interact with the Crimean War ?
 
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It seems mostly fine, but you still need to clarify what you mean to do with Austria, Hungary, and Italy. And France/Russia, in the long term.

Do you wish this German unification to propel Italian one, too, or not (this united Italy would be a rather useful ally to Fred against comebacks from France and Austria) ? If yes, you need Radetsky to fail spectacularly in Italy: either he meets an untimely death, or the Hungarian diet withdraws Hungarian regiments early, so Charles Albert wins a decisive victory at Custoza, and forces Austria to cede Lombardy and Venetia, maybe even Trento. Nationalistic enthusiasm from such a victory sweeps the other Italian states, and their princes are forced to agree on a federal united Italy (akin to federal united Germany) lead by the king of Sardinia-Piedmont as King of Italy.

Moreover, if Russia is paralyzed for a couple years (in addition to the Tsar's health problems, I would give them some extra distraction: say the OTL 1831 Polish insurrection is delayed to 1848 ITTL), and Austria is getting blows from all directions, being expelled from Germany and Italy, as well as getting insurrections in Hungary and Vienna, there is a very good chance that Hungary might well succeed to break out for good in 1849. Moreover, the formation of this German Empire is not going to be unnoticed by German nationalists within Austria. A renewed liberal-nationalist German insurrection in Vienna and Prague and the downfall of the Habsburg (their resources would be terribly stretched by now) are entirely plausible and likely, or them being forced to let Hungary go or give it a personal union, and let Austria-Bohemia enter the Empire as a member state. Does all of this happen to Austria, or not ?

And even admitting that Austria somehow manages to to deal with all its problems with Austrian, Hungarian, and Italian nationalists with its own resources alone, and no Russian help (possible, but hardly likely), and they go on and lose a war later with Germany, what are they going to lose ? Differently from 1866, German unification is already a fact, so that can't be the war booty for Prussia. The Habsburg need to lose a substantial part of their own lands. The total breakup of their empire, with Austria-Bohemia annexed to Germany and the rest being partitioned with Russia, Italy (if its exists, but even if it does not yet, Habsburg defeat is going to kick it into being), and a separate Hungary, seems the only plausible outcome. Even admitting Germany gets a terminal case of stupidity and lets Austria stay separate, at the very least they should annex Bohemia-Moravia.

Of course, the big issue in all of that is what France is doing. By the time Russia gets its act in order, they are going to make themselves confortable with the German Empire. They really don't have such a strategic stake in keeping Germany disunited, their geopolitical aims go South, not West, and past the initial shock, a Prussian-led German Empire is not so problematic to Russian legitimist eyes. However, France does. They are going to be paralyzed by revolution and politicla instability up to ealry-mid 1849, but afterwards, they are free to act. They are surely going to pick a fight with united Germany if it annexes Austria and Bohemia and/or it triggers the unification of Italy without French or worse with German sponsorship, only slightly less likely if they do not. This TL is going to see a Franco-Austrian alliance, almost surely. Germany is going to need allies to deal with the Paris-Vienna bloc. Italy and Russia seem good prospects. This Germany is going to need courting Russia (and prop up Italy as a satellite) to balance its natural enemies. They can easily win St. Petersburg over, if they support its expansion in the Balkans. But this shall antagonize Britain. How is all of this going to interact with the Crimean War ?

The outcome I originally planned for was a Russo-Prussian alliance against an Anglo-French alliance. Hungary gets independence in 1849, Austria-Bohemia's integrated into Prussia-led Germany. I never gave too much thought to Italy when originally thinking up this timeline, though (I suck royally at Italian history). I suppose we could go with the Hungarian diet withdrawing the Hungarian regiments early, so Charles Albert can win that decisive victory he needs, thereby driving Italian unification.

As for the Crimean War, if Italy and a unified Germany were to side with Russia during this conflict, it might change the outcome. Of course, if Russia wins in Crimea, Alexander I might not be so willing to emancipate the serfs as in OTL (of course, Alex could be butterflied into being a total abolitionist - who knows). This might have a variety of strange effects on Russia.
 
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In my Afrikaner TL, I have the Hungarian insurgency come a bit earlier, which means no Hungarian army to defeat the Italian liberals' unification efforts.

The earlier troubles lead to the Frankfurt Parliament's offer of the crown coming when Frederick is in a weaker position and he accepts it. Once he accepts it, he's kind of stuck--the alternative to victory is being overthrown by Austria and Russia.

So a liberal Prussia allies with rebels in other states to unify Germany (including Austria) in 1848 and they buy off angry Russia with Galicia.

(See my signature for the actual timeline)

If Frederick William putting aside his ego about the "crown from the gutter" or the Frankfurt Parliament being more pushy is the POD, things might be trickier, but IIRC the Hapsburgs had fled Vienna, so they're not really in a strong position right now.

Could Nicholas I be bought off with Galicia? Or will it be a face-off between Prussia and allied German states and Russia, with the aristocracy as a potential 5th column?
 

General Zod

Banned
The outcome I originally planned for was a Russo-Prussian alliance against an Anglo-French alliance. Hungary gets independence, Austria-Bohemia's annexed by Prussia-led Germany.

Wow, an 1848 version of my last Russo-German Alliance TL, with a liberal 1848 Grossdeutchsland to boot. Follow that line of thought and you have have just won yourself a loyal fan. :D

I never gave too much thought to Italy when originally thinking up this timeline, though (I suck royally at Italian history).

I may help you here.

I suppose we could go with the Hungarian diet withdrawing the Hungarian regiments early, so Charles Albert can win that decisive victory he needs, thereby driving Italian unification.

Indeed, this is easy to assume. Of course, since Austria is collapsing, this federal Italy is going to gobble more than Lombardy and Venice: surely Trent (even if Bozen is going to go with Germany), and the Kustenland, quite possibly Dalmatia too.

The main divergence here may be that Italy might well unify on the federal model some proposed in the 1830s-1840s rather than the OTL centralized model: a federation of old preunitary states, at least as it concerns the Papal States and Naples, in addition to Savoia Kingdom of North Italy. The princes of Parma, Modena, and Tuscany most likely likely do not keep their thrones: they were very close to or already swept by revolution by the time Charles Albert would win its victory ITTL, and widely perceived as Habsburg puppets anyway. Their lands are most likely unified with Piedmont like the ex-Habsburg territories.

The Pope and the King of Naples may have slighly better legitimacy. They initially sent some troops to fight Austria alongside Piedmont, albeit they did withdraw them later, fearing revolution and an Habsburg comeback. The timing of such a withdrawal is key: if they do not (Austria looks weaker ITTL), then they keep enough patriotic legitimacy that they may become reluctant founding members of federal Italy, being swept by political pressure, and it gets a constitution much akin to the German one (Italian patriots would copy the model).

A federal Italy would likely see some of the economic and social troubles slightly diminished (economic decay of Naples) that it faced IOTL, but it is going to face some internal instability further down the line, when the reactionary leadership of Naples and Papal states shall unavoidably face extensive liberal reform in liberal-national federal Italy. This is not going to be such a big deal as the Kings of Naples are concerned (if they really get unruly, and attempt a secession, they shall be easily overthrown), but it may be cause some serious problems with Pius IX. If we follow his OTL political course, he shall become a stubborn ultra-reactionary after 1848, and he's going to react to liberal reform by trying to pull his states out of Italy, and surely failing that, either wall up in the Vatican (and then the "Roman Question" follows a course much akin to OTL, albeit with much more anguish from the more bigot Charles Albert), or he flees Italy, and attempts to raise a crusade to undo the unification of Italy. Austria is not more, so he's going to ask France (and maybe Spain). Of course, Germany cannot allow France to play overlord in Italy and destroy its southern ally like this, so you would have a ready casus belli between France and Germany/Italy. Spain may easily follow France on this or not, but Britain may or may not going to involve itself in a crusade to put a reactionary Pope back on its throne. Russia is pulled in opposite directions: it is sympathetic to legitimacy (if Nicky is still in charge: much less so if Alexander is Czar already), but feels very little sympathy for Popes, so it might side with Germany or stay neutral. If it has reason already to friendly to Germany, I say they side with Germany. But this makes Britain more willing to side with France.

Or possibly, you might have lack of revolution in rome in 1848 make Pius IX stay liberal, which would massivley butterfly the history of Catholicism in late 19th Century. Say he is inspired by the relatively peaceful unification of Italy (besides the war with Austria) to see the liberal-national movement as the work of Providence, and he gets affirmed in his early tentative liberalism. He becomes an awowed liberal reformist Pope (an early John XXIII) and he pursues the liberal reform of the Church in the rest of his long reign. The Vatican I Council becomes the early equivalent oof our Vatican II, and Catholic reaction is massively diminished throughout the world.

If they do, most likely they are kicked out by national-liberal revolution. This is no such a big deal as it concerns Naples, but is politically tricky as it concerns the ousting of the Pope. Again, French "crusade" scenario as above, and casus belli for a French-German-Italian war in 1849-51.

Also you need to define where the other parts of the Habsburg heritage go:

Germany gets Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, Bozen, and Slovenia, Italy gets Lombardy, Venetia, Trent, Kustenland, and Dalmatia. Russia, seeing the Habsburg collapsing anyway, is most likely going to grab Galicia and Bukovina when it eventually comes to its senses (especially if Galicia breaks free; no way they are going to let an irredentist Polish homeland fester on their side), albeit Hungary may grab it temporarily or as a default. Hungary almost surely keeps its traditional homeland, albeit who gets its crown must be defined (liberal Habsburg scion ? Magyar noble ? a Catholic cadet from some minor European royal house ?). You also need to define whether Hungary manages to keep control of Croatia, or it becomes a personal union, or a separate kingdom (and again, who gets the crown if the latter).

As for the Crimean War, if Italy and a unified Germany were to side with Russia during this conflict, it might change the outcome.

Very true. France would be busy manning its borders vs. the German-Italian alliance, so its aiblity to project power vs. Russia would be much limited.

Of course, if Russia wins in Crimea, Alexander I might not be so willing to emancipate the serfs as in OTL (of course, Alex could be butterflied into being a total abolitionist - who knows).

OTOH, even a victorious war thanks to German-Italian help is going to reveal the critical weaknesses of the Russian empire, which a reform-minded tsar like Alexander would be willing to address. Also, such a victory would have been grasped tahnks to close collaboration with liberal powers, so that would be additional incentive to pursue such a course at home.
 

General Zod

Banned
Could Nicholas I be bought off with Galicia? Or will it be a face-off between Prussia and allied German states and Russia, with the aristocracy as a potential 5th column?

IMO it would critically depend whether the Tsar would deem the Habsburg a lost cause in this scenario, or not.

If we are assuming he is paralyzed anyway by some PoD in 1848-49, so he can't help the Habsburg until the Empire is totally torn apart by German, Italian, and Magyar liberal-nationalists, he would most likely give up to reality, not to pick a war with three powers in order to restore a failed dynasty. After all, a Greater German Empire lead by the King of Prussia, with the backing of the Junkers, still has substantial legitimacy in the eyes of Russia, even if it regrettably gets a liberal character.

He would grab Galicia and Bukovina, shrug, and deem that it was the inscrutable will of God to use revolution, bring down the Habsburg, raise the Hohenzollern in their place, and rebuild the Holy Roman Empire in a new form.

At the very most, he may apply influence to ensure that the Habsrbug still get a crown as a consolation prize: say Kings of Austria-Bohemia within the German Empire, or Kings of Hungary, or Croatia, or Hungary-Croatia. Some of that is likely going to happen anyway, to pacify Habsburg legimitists and please German aristocracy, if the German leadership may find some Habsburg scion willing to cooperate (likely they do).

France is going to have a geopolitical staked interest in trying to undo German and Italian unifications. Russia really doesn't, besides legitimist ideology. They can work a geopolitical parternship with a friendly Germany just as good as with an friendly Austria, even better in some reagrds (cfr. the Balkans).
 
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Newly revised timeline. Tell me if I've screwed up any important details:

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Due to a PoD at 1795, a completely different FW IV is born - a nationalist romanticist who yearns for a unified, Prussian-led German state. This FW IV goes on to accept the German crown in 1849. However, before taking the crown, FW IV obtains a few concessions from the Frankfurt Parliament - most importantly, he ensures the Junkers' land rights will be maintained within Prussia for the time being. This serves to appease the Junkers, solidifying the Frankfurt parliament and his place as the first German emperor.

As the Frankfurt Parliament is being established, the First Schleswig War breaks out. The Prussians move to support the Schleswig-Holsteinian forces. FW IV's acceptance of the German crown from the Frankfurt Parliament comes at a critical point in the war, and other German countries begin to join with Prussia in the war against Denmark. This, combined with solid Prussian leadership, turns the tide of the war. After seeing the solid performance of the Prussian-led German forces against Denmark, Württemberg and the Bavarians also decide to join forces with this new German state.

Meanwhile, Nicholas I of Russia comes down with a nasty case of tuberculosis in mid-1848, leaving him bedridden for the next two years. This leaves the Russian empire unsteered and indecisive, and prevents many of the reactionary decisions and actions of the Russians in OTL, such as pressuring the Prussians over Schleswig-Holstein or intervening in Hungary, from taking place. The inability of the Russians to intervene in Hungary also serves to tie up Austrian resources.

Throughout 1848 and 1849, Austria is wracked with revolution, both in Vienna and in the Hungarian territories. Due to increased strife on the home-front, the Hungarian diet withdraws its regiments earlier than OTL, thereby weakening Josef Radetsky’s position against Sardinia in the First Italian War of Independence. After a defeat at the battle of Custoza at the hands of Charles Albert, King of Sardinia, the Austrians are forced to withdraw. A nationalistic fervour sweeps the Italian nation, and the monarchs of Italy are made to work out a model for a federal, united Italy.

As this new Italy takes shape, the Austrian Empire collapses – without Russian intervention (due to Nicholas I’s tuberculosis), they were unable to maintain the territorial integrity of their empire. The German Empire accepts Austria and Bohemia-Moravia as new member states. The Italians take this opportunity to seize their own former Hapsburg territories, including Lombardy, Venetia, Trent, Kustenland, and Dalmatia. Meanwhile, Galicia and Bukovina are seized by the newly-independent Hungary.

With the Prime Minister of the Papal States never facing an assassination attempt due to a more subdued Revolution of 1848 in Rome, Pope Pius IX never fled. Combined with the victory of Sardinia over Austria and the pace of Italian unification, he sees the liberal-nationalist movement as a sign of Providence, and feels affirmed in his hitherto-liberal attitudes. He willingly merges the Papal States with the new Italy and allows Rome to be used as the federal capital, though he does demand that certain holy sites, mainly around Rome (including the Vatican and the Basilica of St. John Lateran, among others) are granted autonomy within the Kingdom of Italy.
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Now, in OTL, the Second French Republic sent some troops over to the Papal States around about this time. What will they be doing now, if the Papal States peacefully unify with the rest of Italy?
 
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General Zod

Banned
Newly revised timeline. Tell me if I've screwed up any important details:

Seems rather good to me. You screwed nothing IMO, but left out some significant details that need to be defined:

It is better to tell explicitly that the crown of Italy goes to Charles Albert of Savoia, and that federal Italy is a liberal constitutional monarchy on the German model.

Likewise, is Hungary still a liberal constitutional monarchy or republic, and if the former, who gets the crown (Liberal Habsburg scion ? Magyar noble ? Cadet scion of European royal house ?) They might become a republic, but this would single them out from all their neighbors, and further alienate Russia. I suggest they pick a monarch for this reason.

Moreover, I assume Austria and Bohemia-Moravia join the German Empire as one united Kingdom of Austria-Bohemia, or two Kingdoms, whether in personal union or not. It is useful to define this detail because it has some significant influence on the internal politics of the German Empire. If it is one state, it is the option more satisfying to Austrian legitimists and make the Austrian and Bohemian Germans most happy but it makes the Czech most unhappy and makes this Kingdom have an influence almost rivaling Prussia. If there are two separate Kingdoms in personal union, it is the most traditional option of all, so it still makes Austrian legitimists somehow happy, but the Czech more happy and the Austro-Bohemian Germans more unhappy. It gives the personal union still some serious clout but somewhat less infleunce. Two separate Kingdoms is the option that makes the Czech most happy and Austro-Bohemian Germans most unhappy. Pick the option you prefer, but since this is a liberal-national German revolution, I would rather go with either united kingdom with a measure of autonomy for Bohemia or two kingdoms in personal union, depending on what kind of settlement Austrian-Bohemian Germans and the Czech would work out, either by agreement of by show of force, during the revolution in Vienna and Prague. The Czech shall need to be bullied or bribed somehow anyway, in order to agree join the Empire.

Also, if Hungary keeps an Habsburg monarch, you need to define whether they continue the personal union with Austria-Bohemia or not. Both options have benefits and drawbacks. The personal union pleases Habsburg legitimists and Russia, but PO France even more and displeases Britain (balance of power and all). Complete independence pleases radical Hungarian nationalists and appeases France and Britain just a little more, but displeases legitimists and Russia.

Last but not least, some ex-Habsburg lands go unaccounted in your description. I suppose the German Empire still gets Bozen and Slovenia as part of Austria, but better to mention it. Moreover, what happens to Croatia in this settlement ? Legally, Croatia was not a traditional part of the Hungarian Kingdom of St. Stephen like Slovakia and Transylvania. IOTL, Slovaks sided with Magyrs and I assume that without Russian intervention, Hungarians easily suppress any Romanian unrest. The Croats fought the Hungarian, but again, without Russian aid and revolution in Vienna, they shall be defeated. What form does the union of Croatia and Hungary takes ? Are they simply incorporated in the Kingdom of Hungary, or is Croatia granted autonomy and a personal union ?

Now, in OTL, the Second French Republic sent some troops over to the Papal States around about this time. What will they be doing now, if the Papal States peacefully unify with the rest of Italy?

Hmm, for the immediate future, they can do little, since in my knowledge they would lack a decent casus belli.

Attacking Germany and Italy with the explicit intent to undo the "free" (more or less; revolution has forced the hand of the reactionary monarchs, but France is not legitimist, cannot use it as an excuse, and anyway the Pope's blessing ruins the argument) decisions of their monarches and peoples, including the Pope, would single out France again as the Napoleonic aggressor of Europe, isolating it from any possible ally, and not be very popular with both liberals and Catholics at home. Both important constituencies for newly-elected President Louis Napoleon.

It is true that this resettlment geopolitically screws France in comparision to its traditional place in Europe, but such cold-blooded realpolitic "balance of power" issues still need to be sold to the people with a decent casus belli to create a decent consensus for war.

I would say that for now, Napoleon is livid but can do little, he officially congratulates Germany and Italy for their successful unification, tries to whip up French nationalism against the "encirclement" of France and scrambles to gain some territorial compensation for France.

Say he claims that to compensate for the unifications, France needs to be compensated with the left bank of the Rhine and Nice-Savoy: of course, both Germany and Italy shall answer a loudest No, and this heightens nationalist tensions in all three countries. However he would not likely go to war about this, lest be singled out as the expansionist aggressor. And/or try to buy Luxemburg from Netherlands as he did later IOTL, but dunno whether Netherlands would be willing to sell at this point, most likely not, and again he would likely back down since Britain would not support him on this.

Also he would seek out allies in Europe. Approaches to Russia would almost surely be rebuffed since Russia would have little interest to undo the established settlement. Britain holds better opportunities if France is willing to expand the alliance to counter Russian expansion in the Balkans as well (the basic issue behind the Crimean War).

Of course, this would cause a realigning of various geopolitical contrasts and affinities into a chain reaction of rival alliances. Eventually in a few years it causes Europe to split into two rival alliance systems: say Britain-France-Ottoman Empire-Sweden-Danemark vs. Germany-Russia-Italy-Hungary. Spain may stay neutral or join either bloc according to political butterflies, it does not have a strong vested interest toward any.

Basically, early national unifications cause early emergence of rival Europe-wide Industrial Age pre-WWI alliance systems. And almost surely, a proto-WWI General European War sooner or later. The OTL age of the limited wars of realignment is butterflied away since this success of the 1848 revolutions makes it unnecessary. History leaps a stage froward. Hard to say which the trigger may be, there is wide butterfly latitude about this. This may or may not be something in the Balkans (the OTL excuse for the Crimean War was flimsly), the reopening of the Scheswig-Holstein question, a Russian-Ottoman clash, all of the above in quick succession, or something else entirely.
 

Susano

Banned
You mean 1795, not 1895.
Well, normally, I'd say it's improbable. But if you change, as you say in the POD, how Frederick William thinks, then you could have a Prussian-led liberal nationalist Germany in 1849. If, and only if, Bavaria and Wurttemberg go along with the plan.
That is nonsense. The smaller German states are completly irrelevant. IOTL, they had to be saved by Prusisan troops from revolution, and in 1850 Prussia ha doccupied wide swathes of Germany, leading to the Erfurt Union Plans. ITTL, if the revolutionaries and teh Prussian troops are on the same side, well - the smaller German states combined couldnt stand against that. The only thing that could really still prove a problem are outside powers, primarily Austria and Russia. So,y es, it would also need a more successful Hungarian revolution, but thats not too difficult.
 
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