What would happen/is it possible he prevails in the General election had Fred Phelps pulled off an upset in the 1990 Kansas Democratic Gubernatorial primary?
WI: Fred Phelps won the 1990 Kansas Gubernatorial primary
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Saying it would be an upset is putting it mildly. The OTL results from https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=373492 were:
Joan Finney 47.18%
John Carlin 46.11%
Fred Phelps 6.72%
There is just no plausible way Phelps can win the nomination. (Even the usual standby, "There's a horrendous last-minute scandal involving his opponent" won't work here unless somehow there are horrendous last-minute scandals involving *both* Finney and Carlin, which seems extraordinarily unlikely.)
If he does somehow win, I think Mike Hayden will win the general election--after all, he only lost to even an infinitely stronger candidate than Phelps (Joan Finney) by five points. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=46236 But the whole scenario is totally lacking in plausibility.
To equate their chances is IMO too flattering to Phelps' prospects. In the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial race, Duke got 32 percent of the vote in the first round (where he carried 31 parishes to 26 for Edwards) and 39 percent in the runoff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_gubernatorial_election,_1991 Moreover, the previous year, Duke had gotten over 43 percent of the vote in his race for the US Senate against the incumbent J. Bennett Johnston. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Bennett_Johnston Compare that to Phelps' 6.72% showing in the Kansas Democratic primary. For Duke to win statewide in Louisiana was always very unlikely, but never as implausible as Phelps' winning in Kansas.
The ONLY (and I repeat) ONLY way Phelps could, maybe, maybe win is if Finney and Carlin were caught having sex in a car. With each other. The weekend before voting in the primary election. And a dead girl or live boy (they'd be over 18, hypothetically) was somehow involved...
Even then, Phelps would go down hard in the general election (they'd probably elect Sam Brownback, the guy who ruined Kansas, over Phelps); yeah, when one compares poorly to David Duke, of all people, that's...not good...
Even then, Phelps would go down hard in the general election (they'd probably elect Sam Brownback, the guy who ruined Kansas, over Phelps); yeah, when one compares poorly to David Duke, of all people, that's...not good...
Dixieland1861
Banned
At best this is utterly implausible history, at worst it's ASB. There's no way why a homophobic bigot like Fred Phelps (WBC) would ever win the election. Sure, David Duke (KKK) happened to have gotten 38.8% of the vote in the 1991 Lousiana gubernatorial election but even he couldn't become governor and was overshadowed by his rival: Edwin Edwards. In other words, no Phelps as Kansas governor he'd just stick to his job as a fag-hating pastor at a local church.
You can do this, and do this for Duke too. What you have to do is to make it so that their public views are perfectly normal and within the consensus for American elected officials to have, and nearly all Americans agree with them or pretend too.
The other way to do this, though less interesting, is that Phelps himself never goes off into lunatic fringe territory.
The other way to do this, though less interesting, is that Phelps himself never goes off into lunatic fringe territory.
Plus Adolf claimed to have renounced the KKK and its views. It was a lie but he nominally disassociated himself for the purpose of going mainstream.
For those who are interested in that election, the late, great John Maginnis wrote a book about it called "Cross to Bear".
Remember Duke did carry 55% of the white vote in that race.
All that needed to happen was to suppress the black vote and he wins. Voter suppression is definitely not ASB in our society
All that needed to happen was to suppress the black vote and he wins. Voter suppression is definitely not ASB in our society
He was actually a Civil Rights Lawyer, of all things, back in the 60s. Granted, even back then, he was known as an utter jerk who hated everyone and who often went for the lowest of blows, just one who happened to be on the right side.
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Well then the election gets overshadowed by the PoD of "what caused most of the country to think this way?"
David Duke's problem was that he was running for governor a few decades too late when views like his were falling out of style fast. Had he faced a better candidate than the notoriously crooked Edwin Edwards ("vote for the lizard, not the wizard"), he would've lost even more decisively.
Although this was before Westboro really got started with their infamous and massive amount of protests, since Fred Phelps is involved, he'd probably lose in the general election.
Although this was before Westboro really got started with their infamous and massive amount of protests, since Fred Phelps is involved, he'd probably lose in the general election.
Would he have a chance if he were known as an effective Civil Rights attorney who happened to be an asshole and he kept his stance on homosexuality to himself beyond “I don’t like it”?
I suppose if he weren’t disbarred he may have a chance at such a career, but you’re looking at a somewhat different Phelps. The problem is that he was somewhat disingenuous and espoused racist views even in spite of his practice centering around civil rights. So take a reputation for lying and disingenuous behavior, add in an extremely abrasive personality, sprinkle in a damning punishment from the Kansas Bar and the federal courts, and sprinkle in views that are far too full of hate for even the most hardened bigots, and he can’t possibly get elected.
He would have to avoid disbarment, have to keep his homophobic views toned way the hell down, and come across as at least honest, and he could have a solid chance at public office despite being a monumental asshole.
In 1990, Phelps is a firey preacher who is also a civil rights lawyer. Not many at the time could imagine him doing things like protesting the funerals of dead soldiers (like those killed in the Gulf War), since Westboro didn't start their pickets for another few years. If Phelps won, and somehow beat the Republican challenger (a good campaigner could easily shut him down), I honestly can't imagine he'd be too much worse than other conservative governors. He'd have to take a lot of time away from Westboro due to his duties as governor, for one.
Comrade Trump proves that anyone can win despite their views, background, past and current scandals.
manav95
Banned
I'm surprised people in 1990 Kansas would take offense at him being homophobic. Those were different times and America as a whole was quite homophobic with a decent chunk of the population viewing same sex lifestyles as sinful and gay people as unfit for a lot of jobs. There was also the widespread myth among people that AIDS was the gay disease.
And Kansas especially has been socially conservative for decades now. Even the Kansas Democrats were fairly socially conservative back then, in order to be able to compete in this rural state. I don't think many would mind that Phelps was an outright homophobe.