WI: Franz wasn't assassinated?

BlondieBC

Banned
However it can be said that Russia, by mobilizing first, was the first to begin offensive overtures. Frankly, after a certain point, no Great Power can be labeled as being as fault.

I agree strongly that no one great power was at fault. All of the wanted war, or at least were not adverse to war IMO. Serbia was stirring up trouble, and an assassination like that normally leads to war. Serbian intelligence was aware/involved in the plot, but it is unclear to me how much A-H knew of Serbian government involvement at the time. A-H wanted a war with Serbia. Tsar Nicolas was expanding his power in the Balkans. The Kaiser was far from a peace maker, as were the UK and France.
 
Just to throw in a "secondary" effect for this concept.

Assume the sarajevo attack fails and the war is at least delayed (the trigger is not there)

IIRC the Turkis navy faction was pro British before the war. Turkey had some BBs building in Britain. IOTL UK seized those ships when the war broke out and this was leading to the Germans "donating" their Mediterreanan squadron to Turkey. Which leaded to Turkey joining the Central powers.

If the war is delayed long enough for this ships built in england being delivered, then there is no reason for Turkey to join the Central Powers.

I think that Turkey might even join the Entente when the war finally starts...

So no assassination might lead to a shorter war - with less harsh peace terms (at least dor Germany) Ausrtia is doomed anyway ;)
 
Oh. Didn't know that.

The flip-side of this is that Russia had a 24-hour delay primarily because Tsar Nicholas II never understood that Russia making a meaningful partial mobilization was logistically impossible. It took a whole day to sort this thing out and it's one example of the difference between WWI Russia and WWII Russia in terms of their approach to a crisis. The WWII version at least *tried* to find itself in wars it knew something about the approach to.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Just to throw in a "secondary" effect for this concept.

Assume the sarajevo attack fails and the war is at least delayed (the trigger is not there)

IIRC the Turkis navy faction was pro British before the war. Turkey had some BBs building in Britain. IOTL UK seized those ships when the war broke out and this was leading to the Germans "donating" their Mediterreanan squadron to Turkey. Which leaded to Turkey joining the Central powers.

If the war is delayed long enough for this ships built in england being delivered, then there is no reason for Turkey to join the Central Powers.

I think that Turkey might even join the Entente when the war finally starts...

So no assassination might lead to a shorter war - with less harsh peace terms (at least dor Germany) Ausrtia is doomed anyway ;)

Hmm. Interesting tidbit, I didn't know that one. So, let's say the Ottomans join the Allies, and Germany, A-H, and Bulgaria go it alone against them, perhaps a few months to a year down the line. How do you think the war would go? The Allies still win, I guess? And if the war lasts much shorter, say 2-2.5 years maximum, what kind of peace would they reach?

Would Germany get away with perhaps dismantling most of its fleet, mild reparations, and perhaps losing a few African colonies, and holding its European land? Would Austria-Hungary still fall apart, and would the victors still be so set against Austria joining Germany?
 
depending on when the war ends in that scenario, this could very well mean that the bolshevik uprising ends in a tsarist victory, if the russian armies return home in time to stop them (assuming that the bolsheviks would revolt at the same or similar time)
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
Could the French potentially be the ones to start the war, because of Alsace-Lorraine?

Not likely. At a minimum it requires the Tsar to sign off on a war, which I don't see as likely. In addition, you have to get the French government to decide to do it.

Hmm. Interesting tidbit, I didn't know that one. So, let's say the Ottomans join the Allies, and Germany, A-H, and Bulgaria go it alone against them, perhaps a few months to a year down the line. How do you think the war would go? The Allies still win, I guess? And if the war lasts much shorter, say 2-2.5 years maximum, what kind of peace would they reach?

Would Germany get away with perhaps dismantling most of its fleet, mild reparations, and perhaps losing a few African colonies, and holding its European land? Would Austria-Hungary still fall apart, and would the victors still be so set against Austria joining Germany?

In reality, it all depends on the POD. How it would go is almost unknowable, but I will take a stab at a few trends.

1) It is hard to have Italy and the Ottomans on the same side. The Ottomans entering the war likely means Italy stays out, or depending on the POD entering the war.

2) I am not so sure Bulgaria/Greece/Romania enter the war if the Ottomans are on the side of the Entente.

3) The Ottomans bring lots of issues related to the Balkans and Caucasus areas. Ethnic cleansing of Muslims had been going on continuously for 2-3 years by this point. It would take and extremely talented diplomat with the performance of a life time to make this work. If it goes badly, I can easily see the Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece fighting on the side of the Central Powers due to fears of becoming Muslim vassal states again.

4) The war will not be delayed just a couple of months. It does not make a lot of sense to attack in the November to February time frame.

To know for sure, you have to write a full timeline and each TL would have a different answer. The POD is always critical on these types of questions. To illustrate, lets look at some minor variation of how OTL unfolded.

What if the number 8 person in line for the British throne was also in the carriage with the ArchDuke. UK likely stays out of the war. What if the Germans still had the plan to defend against France, attack Russia available? What if Tsar Nicolas simply understood that he could not really partially mobilize? What if A-H had made a counter offer? I find this one particularly interesting because Russia had already started mobilizing. A delay of 2-6 days in the start of the war could change everything. Austria switches War Plans. Serbia is not involved in the war. France not supporting Russia. or maybe none of the above, and Russia gets even more of the initiative on Germany.
 
Not likely. At a minimum it requires the Tsar to sign off on a war, which I don't see as likely. In addition, you have to get the French government to decide to do it.



In reality, it all depends on the POD. How it would go is almost unknowable, but I will take a stab at a few trends.

1) It is hard to have Italy and the Ottomans on the same side. The Ottomans entering the war likely means Italy stays out, or depending on the POD entering the war.

2) I am not so sure Bulgaria/Greece/Romania enter the war if the Ottomans are on the side of the Entente.

3) The Ottomans bring lots of issues related to the Balkans and Caucasus areas. Ethnic cleansing of Muslims had been going on continuously for 2-3 years by this point. It would take and extremely talented diplomat with the performance of a life time to make this work. If it goes badly, I can easily see the Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece fighting on the side of the Central Powers due to fears of becoming Muslim vassal states again.

4) The war will not be delayed just a couple of months. It does not make a lot of sense to attack in the November to February time frame.

To know for sure, you have to write a full timeline and each TL would have a different answer. The POD is always critical on these types of questions. To illustrate, lets look at some minor variation of how OTL unfolded.

What if the number 8 person in line for the British throne was also in the carriage with the ArchDuke. UK likely stays out of the war. What if the Germans still had the plan to defend against France, attack Russia available? What if Tsar Nicolas simply understood that he could not really partially mobilize? What if A-H had made a counter offer? I find this one particularly interesting because Russia had already started mobilizing. A delay of 2-6 days in the start of the war could change everything. Austria switches War Plans. Serbia is not involved in the war. France not supporting Russia. or maybe none of the above, and Russia gets even more of the initiative on Germany.


Why. Italy wants to gain South Tirol and some Adriatic territory - there is no real tension between Italy and Turkey.

Bulgaria was on the Central powers side because of the Second Balkan war - nothing changed.

Greece was pushed by UK into the war (had ties to Germany, but uin the end UK diplomacy prevailed.
 
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