WI:Franz Joseph was assassinated by the Black Hand in 1911?

Apparently there was an attempt in 1911.So Franz Ferdinand gets the throne.How will things be more different if Franz Joseph was the one killed instead?WWI three years earlier?
 
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I don't think that FF would escalate situation to war. There might still be some pressure against Serbia but with Serbia hardly more. But internally Austro-Hungary would be even more difficult. FF wanted federalise the empire what Hungarians couldn't accept. WW1 might still happen but how it begin is different thing.
 
Would Franz Ferdinand somehow still end up get assassinated as easily as OTL,or would FF,being an emperor and learning from the lessons of how FJ got assassinated buff up his protection drastically?
Any chance we might get a A-H civil war maybe leading to a WWI being delayed for a few more years?

I think we might see Plan U activated.If so,I doubt there will be a WWI for some time since A-H would be recovering.
 
Would Franz Ferdinand have a choice in not going to war with Serbia?

As I see it one of the great old man of an European Power got offed by an upstart state with questionable history. That is not a Crown Prince that is only marginaly liked, but the ruler of decades. One that has held the rign for long and was apperantly well liked.

And also how would the other powers react to an Head of State beeing killed, I think about Russia esp. here, as they have the unpleasantness of the 1905 uprisings in mind much better.

So would Franz Ferdinad have any choice but to go to war, if he wants to streanghten his position?
 
FF did not want war as he correctly thought it would lead to the destruction of the empire. I assume FF would slowly try to chnage the Empire and the Balance of power within. His "enemies" were primarily the "magnates" so with luck anyy conflict would be magnates vs King Ferenc and the People - not an Austrian vs Hungarians conflict...

In his foreign policy FF would have sought an understanding with Russia (seeing Poland as the bigger problem compared to the Balkans).
 
FF did not want war as he correctly thought it would lead to the destruction of the empire. I assume FF would slowly try to chnage the Empire and the Balance of power within. His "enemies" were primarily the "magnates" so with luck anyy conflict would be magnates vs King Ferenc and the People - not an Austrian vs Hungarians conflict...

In his foreign policy FF would have sought an understanding with Russia (seeing Poland as the bigger problem compared to the Balkans).
Then what's with Plan U?FF is also far from liberal.
Would Franz Ferdinand have a choice in not going to war with Serbia?

As I see it one of the great old man of an European Power got offed by an upstart state with questionable history. That is not a Crown Prince that is only marginaly liked, but the ruler of decades. One that has held the rign for long and was apperantly well liked.

And also how would the other powers react to an Head of State beeing killed, I think about Russia esp. here, as they have the unpleasantness of the 1905 uprisings in mind much better.

So would Franz Ferdinad have any choice but to go to war, if he wants to streanghten his position?

You do have a point in that the situation would be different,since it's an actual crowned head that got offed,not an heir who is only heir presumptive.FF wasn't even a crown prince since he isn't FJ's son.
 
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Well, much depend on when the assasination happen but this crisis can put an hold or change the dinamic of the Italian-Ottoman war over Lybia.
With the higher tension on the balkans due to FF death, even if no war happen, Giolitti will be more prone to accept administrative control of the land but keep formal ottoman sovereignity butteflying away the war.
 
Then what's with Plan U?FF is also far from liberal.


You do have a point in that the situation would be different,since it's an actual crowned head that got offed,not an heir who is only heir presumptive.FF wasn't even a crown prince since he isn't FJ's son.


While FF is no liberal he has a better grasp on reality than the aging FJ. The latter wanted to preserve without much conflict - thats why he "gave" so many "privileges" to the Hungarians. FF would have accepted challenges where FJ would have yielded. You don't have to be a liberal to allow reforms if you intend to give what must be given and Keep all other (In reality the federalisation is breking the power of the big parts of the emperor into smaller weaker ones - divide et impera ;))

Concerning war because of killing a Monarch.

Sure the pressure to come hard down on the assassins (perceived to be the Serbian government who is behind - actually only part of it) is higher for an Emperor than an "Thronfolger (=Crown prince in every regard save the name)

But FJ was drivebn by a war ready government and had no real idea what he was actually doing. FF OTOH did NOT want to drag the Monarchy into a war, so he probably would have issued "demands" that could be acceopted by Serbia.

Also the other Nations were even favorable towards Austria at the beginning of the July crisis (assassins are assassins after all) - they probably will be meven more Standing behind Austria if the Emperor is killed.
 
Had an actual ruler been murdered would the sympathy for Austria be stronger and Russian less inclined to support its dodgy ally?
 

abc123

Banned
On the other hand, Germany was not yet ready for war in 1911. Kiel Canal isn't finished and no Bosch-Haber process...
 
IIRC Franz Ferdinand's ideas in 1911 centered around attacking dualism immediately after taking the throne, even before his hypothetical coronation. So assuming he follows through on this idea, A-H will be too distracted with internal changes and problems to start a war. Also, FF probably wouldn't want it and in any case Germany will not be nearly as willing to back that sort of thing.
 
Another reason for "No WAR"
If AH issued an ultimatum almost identical to the one they issued in 1914,what are the chances that Serbia and Russia accepts?Would these points actually look extremely reasonable given that an actual crowned head of state has been assassinated,and not by the Young Bosniac,but by the Black Hand?
 
If AH issued an ultimatum almost identical to the one they issued in 1914,what are the chances that Serbia and Russia accepts?Would these points actually look extremely reasonable given that an actual crowned head of state has been assassinated,and not by the Young Bosniac,but by the Black Hand?

Serbia agreed to ALL Points save one OTL, you can assume an Austrian gvmt which does NOT want war asks something less provocative - something that the official serbia COULD save face and accept.
 

abc123

Banned
Serbia agreed to ALL Points save one OTL, you can assume an Austrian gvmt which does NOT want war asks something less provocative - something that the official serbia COULD save face and accept.

IIRC Serbia fully accepted just 6 demands, 3 partially and refused 1. Trouble is, without that last demand, all other demands are futile, because Serbia will promise everything and later just carry on with business as usual. And A-H knew that. Serbia allready promised evereything in 1908 and later just continued with the same thing. Also, if they agreed with that last demand- then various unpleasant things for Serbia would be discovered and Serbian Government ( and perhaps even Russia ) could not claim that they have nothing with assasination in Sarajevo any more.
 
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