Apparently there was an attempt in 1911.So Franz Ferdinand gets the throne.How will things be more different if Franz Joseph was the one killed instead?WWI three years earlier?
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Any chance we might get a A-H civil war maybe leading to a WWI being delayed for a few more years?
Then what's with Plan U?FF is also far from liberal.FF did not want war as he correctly thought it would lead to the destruction of the empire. I assume FF would slowly try to chnage the Empire and the Balance of power within. His "enemies" were primarily the "magnates" so with luck anyy conflict would be magnates vs King Ferenc and the People - not an Austrian vs Hungarians conflict...
In his foreign policy FF would have sought an understanding with Russia (seeing Poland as the bigger problem compared to the Balkans).
Would Franz Ferdinand have a choice in not going to war with Serbia?
As I see it one of the great old man of an European Power got offed by an upstart state with questionable history. That is not a Crown Prince that is only marginaly liked, but the ruler of decades. One that has held the rign for long and was apperantly well liked.
And also how would the other powers react to an Head of State beeing killed, I think about Russia esp. here, as they have the unpleasantness of the 1905 uprisings in mind much better.
So would Franz Ferdinad have any choice but to go to war, if he wants to streanghten his position?
Then what's with Plan U?FF is also far from liberal.
You do have a point in that the situation would be different,since it's an actual crowned head that got offed,not an heir who is only heir presumptive.FF wasn't even a crown prince since he isn't FJ's son.
On the other hand, Germany was not yet ready for war in 1911. Kiel Canal isn't finished and no Bosch-Haber process...
If AH issued an ultimatum almost identical to the one they issued in 1914,what are the chances that Serbia and Russia accepts?Would these points actually look extremely reasonable given that an actual crowned head of state has been assassinated,and not by the Young Bosniac,but by the Black Hand?Another reason for "No WAR"
If AH issued an ultimatum almost identical to the one they issued in 1914,what are the chances that Serbia and Russia accepts?Would these points actually look extremely reasonable given that an actual crowned head of state has been assassinated,and not by the Young Bosniac,but by the Black Hand?
Serbia agreed to ALL Points save one OTL, you can assume an Austrian gvmt which does NOT want war asks something less provocative - something that the official serbia COULD save face and accept.