WI: Franz Joseph dies before Mayerling

GuetinandDerFertige

POD as it says in the title: Franz Joseph dies before January 30, 1889 (Cause of death: Take your pick. The man was old). How would an Emperor Rudolf react to the troubles of the declining Habsburg empire?
As much as I respect the man for his groundbreaking ideas regarding the transformation of Austria-Hungary into a truly transnational state, I acknowledge that he would be in BIG trouble: The nationalists despised him about as much as he despised them, and he had almost no friends among the court nobles (whom he also openly despised). Nevertheless, he was fairly popular with the citizenry, especially the liberals. So, what would happen?
In my opinion, he would be too late to stop the fall of the empire, but his anti-Prussian, pro-French positions could lead to a VERY different Great War (not inevitable by that point, in my opinion, but hard to avoid in some form). More prudent behaviour in that area, plus liberal support could lead to a softer, more drawn-out dissolution of the empire. Or the nationalists would hate him even more than his father, and revolutions would erupt. Who knows...
 

LeCHVCK

Rudolf getting the Throne is the last realistically chance to save the empire even tho it would still be possible in 1917.
Where do you get anti Prussian views? Rudolf plan to solve the polish question was in case of war with Russia annex the one half of Russian Poland and give Germany the other one. He had pro German views.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Rudolf did admire French Culture. Though he was very Pro German.

He seems to be a contradiction when it comes to what he thought of the Ottomans. Must remember he died rather young and views and opinions would be rather malleable I am sure.
 

Halagaz

Rudolf was, on a personal level at least, not pro-German at all. He disliked both Bismarck and Wilhelm II, and said that the latter was a fool who was going to screw up and "cut Hohenzollern Germany down to the size it deserves". Kinda prophetic, although in this case late Rudolf's own government was to blame much more than Kaiser Wilhelm.

Rudolf was also a bit of a Magyarophile. Although that could diminish the possibility of a serious rift between Vienna and Budapest, it would also restrict the central government's ability to manage the budget and appease the non-Hungarian minorities in any meaningful way.
 

GuetinandDerFertige

I do get the impression that, while he got along with Friedrich III just fine (they were quite similar in their political views, after all), the anonymous newspaper articles he wrote have lots of nasty things to say about Prussian ambition. At the very least, he would not be as keen on alliance with Germany as his father would be.
And, yes, it seems that the only nationalism he did not outright reject was Hungarian (one biography notes that Latour carefully chose his teachers to be supporters of the "black and yellow", i.e., unionist and antinationalist, side - except for the Hungarians...)
He was certainly much, much more open towards the slavs than Franz Joseph, repeatedly writing about how they were rapidly civilising themselves and how they should no longer be denied a say. I guess the main thing that interests me is whether he could keep the empire together and if not, how it would fail. My tendency at the moment is to say that it would fail anyway, but perhaps less catastrophically, with the possibility of someting like the British Commonwealth, only in Eastern Europe, as the best case scenario.
 

Richter von Manthofen

IF we assume Rudolf HAD mental issues (leading to his suicide) those would severly hinder his ruling. He might become a second Ferinand (der Gütige) and a "throne council" might actually rule.

Appeasing the Hungarians is not the best way to save the empire ;)

Carry a big stick and unse it freely would be better ;)
 

Janprimus

Halagaz said:
Rudolf was, on a personal level at least, not pro-German at all. He disliked both Bismarck and Wilhelm II, and said that the latter was a fool who was going to screw up and "cut Hohenzollern Germany down to the size it deserves". Kinda prophetic, although in this case late Rudolf's own government was to blame much more than Kaiser Wilhelm.

Rudolf was also a bit of a Magyarophile. Although that could diminish the possibility of a serious rift between Vienna and Budapest, it would also restrict the central government's ability to manage the budget and appease the non-Hungarian minorities in any meaningful way.
Click to expand...

That might also depend on how one defines German, before the German Empire (Kleindeutschland) was established in 1871, German was a much broader term, since it could refer to all German speakers, so including Austrians.
 

LeopoldPhilippe

Banned
Princess Stephanie of Belgium on May 10, 1881 married the Crown Prince Rudolf. Their daughter Archduchess Elisabeth Marie is born in 1883.
Before they attend a gala ball, Stephanie declares, "Rudolf, I know you are friends with Moritz Szeps. That journalist edits that radical newspaper the Morgenpost. Rudolf, I know you wrote articles anonymously for Szeps."
Archduke Rudolf is speechless.
Crown Princess Stephanie continues, "Rudolf, at this evening's ball, I have two announcements for Francis Joseph and Elisabeth. The first is that we are having a second child. I know your father would like a grandson. The second news will be about your newspaper writings."
"Stephanie, no!" exclaims Rudolf. "Father would disinherit me. You know how I yearn to be Emperor. I shall cease the writing."
 

LeopoldPhilippe

Banned
Rudolf and Stephanie attend the ball. She tells the Emperor and Empress about the forthcoming baby. Francis Joseph is pleased.
From then on Empress Elisabeth discontinues to disdain Stephanie. She and Stephanie get along very well.
Francis Joseph and Rudolf undertake the project of building new hospitals.
The baby is born, an Archduke. He is named Ferdinand.
Francis Joseph dies.
Rudolf and Stephanie become Emperor and Empress of Austria.
They have two more children, Archduke Leopold and Archduchess Henrietta.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Austria isn't doomed but she does need some radical reforms and some realistic policies.

First, her foreign policy of rivalry with Russia is doomed and stupid. Russia was massively stronger and FJ needed to accept that. An accommodation over the Balkans is possible up until the Balkan Wars and the Russians were willing to be reasonable on it. Something on the lines of Serbia and Albania for Bulgaria, Macedonia and the Straits would surely satisfy both powers to a large degree

This would have freed the Austrians from their complete dependence on Prussia. They would still need the Prussians/Germans as insurance against a Russian attack but the chance of that attack would be greatly reduced.

Second, internal reforms were obviously needed. Abolishing Hungary and forming a unitary state with universal manhood suffrage would have gone a long way. The Hungarian nobility never had much support

Rudolf though, was not the man to carry out such reforms. Instead, he is likely to be even worse than his father. In foreign policy, he most likely would have alienated both Russia and Germany and probably seen his Empire partitioned between them.

Internally, he would have favored the elite society of the chattering class rather than the low life of the streets. Not a formula for long term success.
 
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